need Archives • Daily Punt

Beat The Odds and you Will Profit

Posted on January 27, 2020 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Sometimes in life we need to remind ourselves of the fundamentals of whatever we are striving to be successful with in order to get our ship back on course.

With betting the biggest fundamental is value and the easiest way to make money from betting is to make your bets at odds that are better than starting price.

And beat starting price when it is adjusted down for a true market IE the prices make up a 100% chance when all possible outcomes are added up.

Starting price, especially these days with the betting exchange markets is an easy and reasonably reliable indicator of the true price/chance for any runner.

And the easiest and most efficient way to do that these days is to beat Betfair SP.

Betfair SP makes up to 100% and the prices are fair to both backers and layers.

If you can beat the Betfair SP consistently then you will make a profit.

There are tipping services that base their whole selection criteria around betting on horses that are showing signs that they will shorten in price from the morning bookie price to the starting price.

Although that is a winning strategy in itself, a better strategy is to study form and make your own selections, determine your own prices and bet where the early prices are bigger than your assessment.

That can be hard work though and you may want somebody to tell you what to bet to beat the market and if you want to be a winner without the work I would recommend Rory Delargy of the http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Rory regularly beats Betfair starting price and consequently he makes steady and consistent profits.

he also gives a full analysis of every bet he gives so you know exactly why they have made each bet. These write ups invariably include other profitable info and bets that are below Rory's minimum price

http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Updated 27 Jan 2020

Filed Under: Money
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# Kautoyoustar

Posted on January 27, 2020 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Betfair are running a competition to win a framed photo print stamped by Kauto Star or a Betfair scarf stamped.

All you have to do is to follow Betfair on twitter @BetfairRacing and tweet with the hashtag #kautoyoustar saying what make Kauto a star to you. Full details here

Hennessy Gold Cup

It's Hennessy Gold Cup day tomorrow and there is a lot of opinion as to the likely victor, as you might imagine.

Lets start with one time favourite Great Endeavour.

Nick Mordin has a very interesting piece highlighting the shortcomings of the UK method of assessing the ground conditions on track.

As his example he assesses the runaway success of Great Endeavour in the Paddy Power Gold Cup…

I think it was misleading for most bookies to mark Great Endeavour up as favourite for the Hennessy following this run. You only have to look at the horse's record to agree with trainer David Pipe's assessment that the 3m 2f of that race ‘might be a bit far'.

I have to agree with this assessment and see no value in following GE.

So let's assess the others…

Neptune Collenges – Excluded on age and recent form
Planet of Sound, Wayward Prince, Muirhead, Blazing Bailey – Recent Form
Fair Along, Balthazar King, Tullamore Dew, Billie Magern, Qhilimar – Out of the handicap
Beshabar – Needs further
Carruthers – Prefers small fields and heavy ground
Michel Le Bon – No recent form, hard to assess, possible danger
Sarando, The Giant Bolster – Suspect jumping ability
That leaves Aiteen Thirteethree & Wymott. We prefer Wymott who's last run can be excluded after picking up an injury. Set to carry just 10-2, he will also carry our stake. Good luck

Todays Tip

Newbury 3.50 Colour Squadron (Result 2nd)

Filed Under: Tips
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Football Correct Score Trading

Posted on January 22, 2020 by Dave French • 5 Comments

I've just read a cracking article in the Betting Insiders report that outlines a strategy for trading correct score football markets.

I'm sure that this will be a handy strategy to have in your betting armoury.

Basically the method outlined by Jakub Gawel involves backing high scores in games where one team is very short odds on to win.

And then as the game progresses trade out of the position as the scores shorten.

Jakub gives a couple of examples and the general scenario is that one team is starting at odds of 1.2 or less in the win market and has a history of high scoring games.

Jakub then bet scores of 4-0 and 4-1 at double figure odds.

Then as the game progresses every time a goal is scored by the hot favourite the odds shorten on the big score lines and a profit can be locked in by laying the score line.

There is scope for this to go wrong but if you do your research this looks like a great strategy.

You will need to keep your wits about you, for example if the underdog scores you need to lay off the 4-1 score straight away because if they get another you will have two losing bets.

By betting a score to nil and a score to one either team can score first and you will still have at least one active bet to trade out of.

If you want to read the full method you can join the Betting Insiders here.

Update 2020: This is still a valid strategy, but from experience I would say that the safer strategy is to lay the smaller score lines, either 3-0 and 3-1 or 2-0 and 2,1.

The profit will be smaller from these more likely correct scores but you will be making a profit more often.

As with any football betting, especially in the correct score markets you need to do your research and when trading you need to be on the ball and ready to update your position after each goal.

Filed Under: Systems
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Please Mr Santa

Posted on December 23, 2019 by Dave French • 0 Comments

If you don’t want socks or underwear for Christmas then you need to get your requests in for for stuff that you would really like.

With that in mind we have some of the lesser known betting books that will help pass away a few quiet afternoons during the holiday period.

Born to Punt is a collection of amusing events that have befell sports writer Steve Palmer.
If you want to feel a bit better about your own misfortunes at the hands of the bookies.

One reviewer summed this book up thus “Absolutely hilarious from the start! For anyone that is regularly involved in financial combat with the bookmakers, or simply intrigued into what makes thousands of people regularly frit away their finances on a variety of sports, Steve’s account is frightfully recognisable. Chasing the dream! The lazy boy lifestyle led with his accomplice through various fast-food establishments adds the required light humour! ”

Our second choice is the more serious, although not too heavy for the non mathematician, Taking Chances.

John Haigh is the author of a number of books on probability and manages to make the mathematics of betting and winning just about understandable by the man on the street.

And although this is not the latest book on the subject it is one of the more readable and is recommended for that reason

Sporting Chancer is a wonderful read that will keep you occupied and amused during the dull sober moments of the traditional christmas.

The book follows Ed Hawkins as he tries to punt himself around the world. Not in a flat bottomed boat with a big stick but by betting to fund his travels.

As well as losing in one of the biggest casinos in the world, he bets on cock fighting, plays bingo and challenges Phil ‘The Power’ Taylor to a game of darts.

Any round up of betting books would not be complete without a couple of the all time classics and here I include the books that I read as I started my own betting career.

Any of Nick Mordin’s books are worth a read as is his website where he regularly looks at racing in alternative ways.

But this is the one that I remember most fondly. Nick explains his methods and the index cards of data that he would carry to the days racing to help him identify the bets he would make.

It wraps up with an account of his own profits and losses betting around the racecourses of England.

As far as I’m aware Value Betting by Mark Coton was the first book to explain the concept of value betting. And although it was pre mainstream internet and Betfair the message is still valid today.

I’m going to finish off with Alan Potts’ Against the Crowd. Alan Potts was a pro gambler turned pundit for a while and this one has had a place on my bookshelf since the mid 90’s.

As the title suggest Alan, like Mark before him, was a value seeker. And like Nick he includes a diary of his bets over the preceding season

Todays Tip

Hexham 2.50 Ockey De Neulliac Each Way

Filed Under: Money
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Beat The Odds and you Will Profit

# Kautoyoustar

Football Correct Score Trading

Please Mr Santa