Tag Archives: new National Hunt

National Hunt Trainer Facts

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = – 7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Willie Mullins Irish Course Run 2013 - 14 table

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

 

 

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More Up In Class

Following on from yesterday's research into a possible new National Hunt system we had one comment (thanks Kenny) with suggestions for further research. So today I'll look into the figures a bit further and see what we can dig up.

First off I looked at race distance for the horses that were up in class for the trainers we selected.

Here's the data I was returned…

Up In Class by Distance Table

 

From this I can see that some distances have proven to be more profitable than others in the past.

But I can think of no logical reason why some distances would have a higher strike rate and more profit. For example why would 2 mile and 1/2 a furlong races be profitable but 2 mile 1 furlong races not be. It's only a hundred meters further!

However it's worth noting that the majority of these race types are 2 mile races, and they are very profitable.

Next I looked at courses, here's the overall table…

Up In Class by Course Table

 

We can see that some are very profitable and some very unprofitable. I'm sure we could think up reasons why some would be more profitable than others, but I suppose what we really should do is to pick just one of our trainers and break down the data for course and distance for just that trainer and see if we can build a profile for these types of runners for each trainer.

So I'll put that on my to do list for next week and we'll see if we can drill down and build a collection of winning profiles.

There's no bets for the original system idea yet, if you missed it you can read it here

Today's Selection

3.30 Uttoxeter Carningli – win bet – evens Bet 365

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