Tag Archives: Newcastle

Big Winners great Strike rates…

Isn’t betting a funny thing…

On the one hand we want winners and the bigger the better…

…And on the other we want to win a lot with very few losers.

Big winners and a great Strike rates… Perfect!

Unfortunately it doesn’t quite work like that.

Big winners tend to mean lower strike rates.

Take “Elision” a system we have been testing over at the Grey Horse Bot web site since 28/08/2014.

It has an average winning price of 9.00 (pretty big).

It also has an average strike rate of 13.12% (not so big)

And since we started reviewing the system it has had a winning month of 51.39 and 40.32.

Sounds pretty good…right?

Well not quite…

Averages are funny things. They are made up of high and low figures.

The high ones are great because they produce the big profit months like above.

It’s the low ones that are a pain.

They tend to be the ones where you need to dig deep.

If you have done your homework and understand that longest losing runs do happen then you can ride them out.

If you haven’t then this is where you find out that staking too much from your bank on each selection can really be expensive.

Tipsters and systems have good runs, but they also have times when their natural strike rates adjust.

Whether you call it a “bad run”, “bad luck” or “The system doesn’t work”.

It will happen.

Elision proves this point.

Yes it has had some good months but it also has bad months.

The 28 month history shows us that this is not unusual…

…It’s all down to you and whether you believe the history or think the bad months are the signs of the system going bad.

Don’t ignore statistics…

 Losing runs will happen and the lower the strike rate the longer these will be and the more often they will happen.

Be prepared and reap, ignore and you will be forever losing.

You can check Elision out here

http://greyhorsebot.com/elision

Thanks

Malcolm Pett

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

3:20 Newcastle Up And Go – win bet – 15/8 Sporting Bet

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Southwell Trainer System

Today I've nicked a very small part of a detailed article that Nick Hardman wrote for the On Course Profits magazine.

(Get the whole mag for free at http://oncourseprofits.com)

The article that Nick wrote teaches readers how to find their own profitable trainer trends and in this excerpt he starts by looking at the leading trainers at Southwell.

southwell top trainers

 

Keith Dalgleish has a very healthy 28% strike rate and has had a decent amount of runners. By clicking on “Run” we can see the yearly breakdown of the trainer’s performance at the track.

Keith Dalgleish Breakdown

 

Two things are interesting here. Firstly, he has almost doubled the amount of runners he sends to the Midlands track compared to 2011 and 2012. Secondly, his performance in the last 2 seasons suggests his yard is clearly on an upward curve.

Again we use Keith Dalgleish at Southwell (AW) from 2011 to 2014 as the basic system to search for a profitable betting angle in HRB. Immediately we can see that all of his profit has come in handicap races.

Keith Dalgleish Handicap

Digging deeper into his handicap performers showed winners came from all age groups across a variety of race distances. The recommendation here would be to back all his handicap runners at Southwell.

If you haven't already subscribed to On Course Profits then I highly recommend that you do so today and lock in a free life time subscription. Click Here

Today's Selection

12:20 Newcastle Jonny Eager – win bet 3/1 Coral

 

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Doncaster Hurdlers

Today we have our regular, winning advice from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders. (http://bettinginsiders.com )

Another Three Winners

We bagged another 3 winners last Friday although it was frustrating to see Trustan Times being badly impeded while in the process of running a big race in the Fixed Brush Hurdle on Saturday.  Still, that’s racing for you and we move on.  This week we take a look at a trainer with a fantastic record with his hurdlers and I will tell you where my money is going in the Hennessy Gold Cup on Saturday.

When I started writing this post I was looking for an angle for today’s Doncaster meeting and one trainer that caught my eye was John Quinn.  His record at Doncaster since 2010 is shown below:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.21.50

John Quinn has sent out 309 hurdlers in the last 5 seasons compared to 25 chasers and 27 bumper runners.  If we look at the performance of his hurdlers at Doncaster priced 20/1 or shorter the stats look even more impressive:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.26.18

That got me thinking about the performance of his hurdlers at other tracks.  He does exceptionally well (strike rate >30%) at many of the Northern tracks, especially Doncaster, Cartmel and Newcastle.  His hurdlers are worth noting at the following tracks:

Ayr, Ascot, Cartmel, Doncaster, Haydock, Hexham, Lingfield, Newbury, Newcastle, Perth, Wetherby and Worcester.  Backing all his hurdlers at these tracks, priced 20/1 or shorter since 2010 would have resulted in the following profits:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.27.05

If you want a system with consistency then take a look at the yearly breakdown of John Quinn’s hurdlers at the courses we identified above.

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.28.01

John Quinn has 2 hurdlers entered at Newcastle on Saturday:

2.05pm Aurore D’Estruval @6/1

3.15pm Zermatt

Saturday also sees the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and it looks like a terrific renewal.  I have taken a look at the profiles of the previous winners and there are two that tick plenty of boxes.  The two trends horses I will be backing are:

Newbury 3.00pm Smad Place @8/1 and Rocky Creek @10/1

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