I’ve just read a very interesting article in this months Secret Betting Club newsletter.
The article looks at fluctuations in the winning percentages of various football bets and at how these fluctuations might have effected your betting.
And probably more importantly how you might feel about your betting method and how your decisions about strategies may have been impacted.
For example, you could have backed every home team priced below 1.9 so far this season and made a nice profit of 25.73 points and a return on investment of 8.22%.
This is from betting in English Premiership, Championship, League One, League Two, Conference and Scottish Premiership.
That’s the good news, the bad news is that only one other year has shown a profit since 2005 and that particular year made a 0.03% return on investment.
And it’s likely that the same strategy would not make a profit again next year.
But if you just started this year betting teams that fall into this category, this season, you would likely think you were onto a winning method. Especially of the results continued to the end of the season and ended in profit.
Nest season you might be excited to get started and be prepared to bet at larger stakes in order to increase your profits.
Only to meet a losing year.
This article is 7 pages of detailed info with lots of interesting points, skipping ahead now to another interesting point that caught my eye.
That is how few matches have to go against you to turn a winning year into a losing year.
Here’s a table shared in the article…
You can see that if you are betting at odds of 2.0 that for every 100 bets if 55 win you will make a 10%, but if only 45 win you will make a 10% loss.
What’s interesting is that when you move up to odds of 5.0, just 2 bets going for you or against you can make a huge difference.
Looking at the 5% profit column we can see that at 5.0 that 21 wins out of 100 will give us a 5% profit, but if that drops down to 19 wins we lose 5%.
You can read the full article in the February edition of the Secret Betting Club newsletter – Click Here
Today’s Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders