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Winning Football Trends

I've just read a very interesting article in this months Secret Betting Club newsletter.

The article looks at fluctuations in the winning percentages of various football bets and at how these fluctuations might have effected your betting.

And probably more importantly how you might feel about your betting method and how your decisions about strategies may have been impacted.

For example, you could have backed every home team priced below 1.9 so far this season and made a nice profit of 25.73 points and a return on investment of 8.22%.

This is from betting in English Premiership, Championship, League One, League Two, Conference and Scottish Premiership.

That's the good news, the bad news is that only one other year has shown a profit since 2005 and that particular year made a 0.03% return on investment.

And it's likely that the same strategy would not make a profit again next year.

But if you just started this year betting teams that fall into this category, this season, you would likely think you were onto a winning method. Especially of the results continued to the end of the season and ended in profit.

Nest season you might be excited to get started and be prepared to bet at larger stakes in order to increase your profits.

Only to meet a losing year.

This article is 7 pages of detailed info with lots of interesting points, skipping ahead now to another interesting point that caught my eye.

That is how few matches have to go against you to turn a winning year into a losing year.

Here's a table shared in the article…

SBC Required Wins

 

You can see that if you are betting at odds of 2.0 that for every 100 bets if 55 win you will make a 10%, but if only 45 win you will make a 10% loss.

What's interesting is that when you move up to odds of 5.0, just 2 bets going for you or against you can make a huge difference.

Looking at the 5% profit column we can see that at 5.0 that 21 wins out of 100 will give us a 5% profit, but if that drops down to 19 wins we lose 5%.

You can read the full article in the February edition of the Secret Betting Club newsletter – Click Here

Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

15:00:00 Southwell Sin Bin – win bet – 13/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Bet Victor

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No Crap Freebies

I got an email this morning from some newsletter I signed up for offering me some amazing freebie.

So I registered my email address to get what turned out to be the biggest pile of crap I've come across in a long time. A total waste of the time it took to download and read 🙁

So that made me think about what good freebies I've been sent recently and can pass on to you.

One of the most interesting I have had recently is a set of four interviews with tipsters and gamblers.

It makes interesting reading – Click Here to open the pdf (no email required)

Today's Selection

6.30 Wolverhampton Short Shrift – eachway bet – 5/1 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Bet Victor

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Easy Money from In Play Betting

Today we have a guest article from Clive Keeling of What Really Wins Money (WRWM).

WRWM is a monthly newsletter which shares betting strategies every month.

Get full details here – http://whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk

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In-Play is where it pays.

The Football Season is upon and I am delighted already, simply because Man City got stuffed by Crystal Palace.

I still made money in this match by laying Crystal Palace 3-1 up at odds of 1.02. City scored a 90th minute goal to bring the Palace odds up to 1.18 allowing for a swift and profitable trade, with minimal risk.

And that’s not been the only end of match highlight this season. Don’t invite me round for tea because I’ll only bore you with stories of how I backed Benfica at odds of 120 ( 119/1 in old money) and actually won.

Take a gander at this thing of beauty…

Easy In Play Profits

I backed Benfica at odds of 4.60, 120 and 27 and came out of the match £389.58 richer.

A whopping £238 of that profit was made with a £2 stake.

So how was it done?

It was a feat as magical as anything Paul Daniels and the Lovely Debbie Magee ever managed.

There were 3 components here…

  • Research ( context)
  • In-Play Betting
  • 85th+ minute betting

Research

I research all football matches I consider betting in, and so should you.

It goes without saying.

Research here pointed to a Benfica side who had lost their first match of the new Portugeuse season.

I bracketed the word Context because this is important.

Last season, Benfica only lost one match all season.

Already this season they have lost their first match and are losing 0-1 at home to Gil Vicente.

To lose the opening 2 matches of the season, when they only lost one match all last season was tantamount to gifting the Portugeuse title to Porto already!

In-Play Betting.

Betting pre-kick off. Pah!

That’s Old Skool , kick it to the kerb girlfriend!

You will consistently get better value waiting for a match to go in-play.

Remember this – there are no foregone conclusions ever and there is no such thing as a sure thing.

Ask 1.25 shots Benfica!

Teams odds will rise and fall dramatically in-play over 90 minutes.

Bet pre kick off if you want, but I’m here you tell you, you can skyrocket your profits in-play.

85th+ Minute

I already alluded to this with the Palace v City match. I would urge you to add this little niche into your football betting portfolio.

Last minute betting in in-play football matches offers you the odds you’ve only ever dreamt of.

So back to Benfica.

Let’s look at the scoreline.

The winning Benfica goals were actually scored in the 92nd and 93rd minutes.

I know because I was following the match and I distinctly remember doing an embarrassing drunken-dad-at-wedding dance when Lima scored the winner.

And if you think this is an isolated incident, let me take you to France.

A certain Paris St Germain were 1.2 shots to beat Guincamp at home.

It was 0-0 at halftime.

It was 0-0 in the 89th minute.

And yes, you guessed it, PSG won 2-0.

I missed this particular pay day thanks to my oh-so-considerate girlfriend insisting we go out!

Last season, I layed the draw in one Olympiakos match at odds of 1.04, and won, and layed the 0-0 correct score in another Olympiakos match at odds of 1.14 and won.

So instead of tuning in at 3pm on a Saturday, tune in at 440pm , check out the scorelines and see if there are any potential shock results which you can exploit by backing and laying on Betfair.

Your risk is small, your potential reward massive.

Who knows? Maybe you’ll be the next person to nab that elusive 100+/1 winning bet!

Clive Keeling – http://whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk

Lay Debutants

I'm pleased to say we had our first losing bet yesterday. Pleased because we have taken the hit and are still well in profit. Here are today's.

14:30:00 Haydock 7 Sitting Pritty (IRE)
15:10:00 Newcastle 1 Chessfield Park
18:50:00 Kempton 7 Laugharne
18:50:00 Kempton 9 Literally On Fire (IRE)
18:50:00 Kempton 12 Rochambeau (IRE)
19:20:00 Kempton 5 Hesbaan (IRE)
20:20:00 Kempton 4 Mia San Triple

Today's Selection

6.20 Kempton Ocean Tempest – eachway bet – 6/1 Bet 365, Boylesports

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