Tag Archives: NR

Perth Trainer Trends

Today we have an interesting trainer angle from Mark Foley of the Betting School Insiders Club…

Perth Trainer Trends

Perth stages summer racing over the jumps and you invariably think of Nigel Twiston Davies as the man to follow. 

The West Country maestro has done well in recent years with 27 runners since 2010, however during the same period, Irish raider Gordon Elliot has saddled a remarkable 72 winners at the Scottish track.

With the Stanraer ferry and a good motorway network making it easier for him to get to Perth than many of the Irish tracks and Irish races often being oversubscribed he has taken full advantage of his trips across the Irish Sea.

The strike rate since 2010 has been a very respectable 25% when you consider he has sent over 249 horses, but that only tells half of the story and the good news is that they have become even more profitable to follow in the past two years than in previous seasons.

In the past two seasons he has been more selective with the runners he has sent over but the strike rate was 32% last year and a remarkable 38% the year before; the ROI’s were 52% and 74%.

You would think that the booking of top Jocks AP Mc Coy and Jason Maguire would send the prices plummeting but 10 winners from 22 runners in the past two seasons, for a 45% ROI would suggest otherwise and the stable’s runners could have been backed with confidence when McCoy or Maguire rode or when he booked a ticket for Davey Condon.

Gordon Elliot has one entered at Perth today and 2 tomorrow.

Today's is in the 4.20 and is High Expectations.

Today's Selection courtesy of Winning Trends http://winningtrends.co.uk

Brighton 3.00 Best Example – win bet – 11/4 Bet 365

Perth

Musselburgh Racing Tips

Today we have our regular column from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders who has pointed us at some big priced winners since he started contributing.

Take note of today's wisdom…

http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

Not long ago we highlighted William Haggas as a trainer to follow at Musselburgh.

He has had just 11 runners at the track since 2010 and 5 have won, including three of the last four.

In fact he is 1-1 in 2012, 1-1 in 2013 and 1-2 in 2014.

On Friday he has 3 horses entered up at the Scottish track:

4.30pm Enville
5.40pm Westerly
6.40pm Meeting Waters

We also highlighted the fine strike rate that Alan Swinbank has up at Musselburgh with his handicap runners over 1m to 1m 6f.

Since 2010, he has had 47 runners in 1m to 1m 6f handicaps and 12 have won giving him a strike rate of 25.53% and a level stakes profit of +20.25pts.

His string is in fine form at present and his last 7 runners at Musselburgh have finished 5113211.

He has the following entries on Friday:

7.10pm Giovanni Jack

The Betfred Sprint Cup is the feature race on Saturday at Haydock and I have looked at the profiles of the winning horses since 1997.

Horses aged 3 to 5 have won 15 of the last 17 renewals and 14 of the last 17 winners were rated 109+.

Since 1997, 13 winners arrived here on the back of a top 3 finish, 15 winners have come from the top 6 in the betting and 14 winners had previous winning form over 6f.

Interestingly, 13 of the last 17 winners had run over further than 6f.

Just one horse ticks all those boxes and that is Henry Candy’s Music Master @8/1.

Favourite Sole Power has never won over 6f, whilst Gordon Lord Byron falls down on the age stat only.

Those that tick all the boxes except for being in the top 6 in the betting are Professor @66/1, Es Que Love @20/1 and Baccarat @25/1, all of whom are available at big odds.

Creating Betting Systems III

Today we have a regular weekly catch up with Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

In the first two articles we looked at why I like systems and how I came up with the ideas.

In this final part I want to share with you some other things I have learned along the way which may help you when designing your own.

First of all it easy to get caught up in an idea…

Often you pursue an idea and start looking for ways to make it more profitable by filtering out more and more races until you end up with something that resembles the system you want.

I call this “Stacking and Racking” filters.

The problem is, everytime you add one filter you affect another and the more you “stack and Rack” the more likely it is that you have missed a better more profitable angle.

When you add a filter you should step back and see how that one filter works on its own against the original idea.

Secondly sample size is really important.


If you do a search initially on hurdle races you could have a massive sample size which will give you a good indication of the statistics.

Sometime during your research you may see that filtering out a certain element like an age group or last time out result may appear to improve the system.

But you have to be aware that a small sample size could be misleading and may not give you a very accurate statistic.

I don’t normally use a filter unless I have s sample size of at least 100 and really prefer much higher.

Finally you may want to stick to one race type. Hurdle, Chase, AW, NHF and Flat are all different types of racing.

It isn’t very often that you find a system that works well on one race type will also work just as well on another.

Even when you do…you will often see different win/loss trends across the race types.

If you analyse them individually you will probably find filters that work better on one than they do on others.

To finish off this series of articles here are some other things you may want to consider if you decide to develop your own systems.

Be aware of trends. All weather systems are a classic when it comes to trends.

Something that appears to have worked for the last 6 months or maybe even a year suddenly doesn’t.


Many archives don’t include Non Runners. This is not a big problem until you realise that on the day you may have selected that NR and not have been aware of it not running.

I find this really important when looking at runners ranked by a Rating Systems.



If you run the ratings leaving out NR’s you will of course get different selections than if you left them in. Don’t forget you don’t always here about NR’s until after the off. 


Don’t forget when you look at a system you are seeing the results based on SP or BSP and without you adding money into the market. 
You will only see how well it performs when you start using it.


Paper Test first always…Then small stakes. 

Any money into a market effects the price no matter how little. I use what I call “Price Pressure” to see what effect lowering the Average Winning Odds will have on a system.


Always be aware of your Strike Rate and Average winning odds. Look out for trends of either falling. But be aware short term trends can give false impressions.

You need to look at your system month by month to get an idea of how it performs and always create a graph. There is nothing like a visual display to show you how a system has performed.


Watch out for the “One big winner trap”. You often find a collection of data looks really profitable only to find it is actually just one or two big winners that actually created all the profit.


Finally please remember this…

I am a big believer in betting systems but I also realise that the biggest flaw with them is that you are using the past to predict the future.

The big advantage of creating your own systems is that you can tailor them to suit your own style of betting and instead of creating one. You can create many “nano” type systems that look at one particular type of racing.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd”

Find out more about the Greyhorse Bot at http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

7.20 Hamilton Bi Focal 3/1 generally

Musselburgh Tips

Today we have a guest post from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders (http://bettinginsiders.com)

Musselburgh Tips and Trainer Trends

We are off to Musselburgh in search of winners on Friday and we have a few trainers with some impressive strike rates at the Scottish track.

First up is Philip Kirby who does well with his handicap runners. He does not do so well with his sprinters so best to concentrate on those races of 7f or longer.

Philip Kirby – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014 over 7f or longer

Philip Kirby – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014 over 7f or longer

On Friday he has the following qualifiers – Forgiving Glance (2.30pm), Just Paul (3.30pm) and Rocky Two (4.30pm).

Our next trainer to follow is Alan Swinbank who also does well with his handicappers at middle and staying distances:

Alan Swinbank – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014 over 1 mile to 1 mile 6f

Alan Swinbank – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014 over 1 mile to 1 mile 6f

On Friday he runs Lady Kashaan & Dark Ruler (4.00pm). Robert Winston takes the ride on Lady Kashaan and the Swinbank/ Winston pairing has bagged 5 winners from 11 rides in the last 2 years at Musselburgh.

Our third trainer is Michael Dods. He is another trainer who excels with his handicappers at the course.

Michael Dods – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014

Michael Dods – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014

On Friday he runs Alan’s Pride (2.30pm) in the Nursery. Connor Beasley takes the ride and the Dods/ Beasley combination has teamed up for 4 winners from 6 rides at the course in the last 2 years.

A few of you have asked for a list of trainers with a high strike rate at the courses we cover in this Friday column. Here is the list for all trainers with a 20% or higher strike rate at Musselburgh since 2010 (minimum of 20 runners):

R. Fahey 24%
P. Kirby 27%
Declan Carroll 26%
M. Dods 28%
A. Swinbank 21%

On a final note for Musselburgh, William Haggas has had just 11 runners at the track since 2010 but 5 have won, including three of the last four. In fact he is 1-1 in 2012, 1-1 in 2013 and 1-2 in 2014. Keep an eye out for anything he runs up at the Scottish track.

Finally, we have previously highlighted the performance of the Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote combination at Haydock and on Friday they team up with the unraced Opportuna (6.20pm) and War Paint (6.50pm).

It will be interesting to see how they run at what may well be decent odds.

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