Tag Archives: offers

Christmas Spirit

With no racing after today until Boxing Day this will be my last post until Friday when we will have some winning tips from Nick Hardman.

But before I go I've got news of 12 super freebies that you can get, starting on Christmas Day.

That nice Mr Wilding over at Race Advisor has managed to persuade the owners of the best premium betting services to give you access to ALL of them this Christmas, completely FREE.

Michael is known for putting together offers of incredible value, but he’s really outdone himself this time and we’re proud to be a part of it.

This is a one-off, unique Christmas event.

You’ll get one email each day, for the twelve days of Christmas, showing you how to get access to a premium service totally free.

But, you MUST register before midnight on the 24th December if you want to join in.

And that doesn’t leave much time. So…

Follow this link and register now

http://dailypunt.com/12days

Today's Selection

2:00 Bangor Never Never – eachway bet – 5/1 Bet 365

Jumping Propects 2015

Jumping ProspectsToday I'm looking at a book called Jumping Prospects that has been recommended to me.

It is written by racing stalwart John Morris.

The book is priced at £15 and was published late September and is aimed at those who like to follow trainers and also spot a few big priced winners that are under the radar.

There is comprehensive coverage of 21 Trainers along with comments on 475 of the horses in their care.

There are also ‘stable eyecatchers’ at the end of each interview to help you focus on those the author really likes.

Last year’s edition produced 242 winners and included winners at 40/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 20/1.

This is the 23rd edition of the book and clearly offers something that is worthwhile to many.

Here's the edited highlights of the Amazon blurb…

21 Stable Interviews with various jumps trainers including: Kim Bailey, Ali Stronge, rebecca Curtis, James Ewart, Harry Fry, Warren Greatrex, Anthony Honeyball, Nicky Henderson, Alan King, Emma Lavelle, Charlie Longsdon, Donald McCain, Paul Nicholls, Dr Richard Newland, Ben Pauling, Oliver Sherwood, Dan Skelton, Jamie Snowden, Tom Symonds, Colin Tizzard, Robert Walford.

John says: “Once again I have visited some of the major jumping stables along with other horses that might slip under the radar. The energy you pick up from my stable tour will fuel your betting tank for a long, long time!”

The Jumping Prospects book is guaranteed to uncover many winners during the autumn and winter jumps season.

When you purchase your copy of Jumping Prospects it will pay for YOUR outlay many times over, as it has the answers to future winners likely to appear during the jumps campaign.

You can obtain a copy by visiting http://www.dailypunt.com/jumpingprospects 

Today's Selection

9.10 Kempton Fiftyshadesofgrey – eachway bet – 11/2 Bet 365

Odds On Value Bet

A lot of people will tell you that a bet is only value if it is big odds.

And that odds on bets cannot be value.

Those people are wrong.

To be value a bet only has to be available at bigger odds than the true chance of the event occurring.

I was reminded of this yesterday when I read an email from the Betfan Formula 1 service.

Rather than me re-write this in my own words I think it will make more sense if I show you the full message from Betfan F1

China Grand Prix

Statistical anomaly means bookies have got it wrong.

It’s happened for the first time this F1 season. Odds compilers have brought their banana skin to work, placed it under their chair leg and then decided to rock themselves on their seat while pricing up the Chinese Grand Prix.

There have been ten Chinese Grand Prix which have featured four Safety Car Periods. As that’s a good-sized sample it’s probably fair to say there is a 40 percent chance of a safety car being deployed this Sunday and 60 percent chance that it is not.

That converts directly into probability of 4/6 for no and 6/4 for yes. Funnily enough the best odds on offer for and against a safety car appearance is 4/6 and 6/5.

Therein lies the huge rick as only two races have actually been effected by a safety car period (when it was deployed twice). It means odds compilers have over-analysed their stats and should actually be betting 20 percent and 80 percent. That’s 1/4 no safety car and 4/1 that there is one.

There is another factor to consider which actually make a NO safety car scenario even shorter than 80 percent:

The last time it was brought into play, 2010, 24 cars lined-up for the race and not the 22 which will face the starter this Sunday. Two less cars means two less cars which can find themselves in a collision or stranded on a dangerous part of the circuit. That equates to eight percent.

Conclusion:

Not an attractive ‘get rich’ price but a hugely out-of-line all the same. 4/6 offers a return way in advance of what your money would if tied up in a five-year savings plan – and should give its yield after 90 minutes as opposed to 260 weeks.

BET – 6 Points on No Safety car @ 4/6

Hopefully the above explains why this bet is value more clearly than I could with hypothetical examples.

But to be clear the chance of a safety car being deployed is about 20% and the bookies have priced it like there is a 40% chance, so the 4/6 no safety car is huge value!

You can find out more about the Betfan F1 Betting service here.

And also I should mention that the Betfan free bets are currently topping the proofing table at Race Advisor and if you don't get their free bets you can sign up for free here.

Today's Selection

Newmarket 2.55 Toofi – win bet – 9/2 Paddy Power, Bet Victor

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