Tag Archives: pace

Create your own speed ratings

Over the last few years I have created a number of different ratings for our own use and clients but these have all be form related.

So I guess it was only a matter of time before the question of speed ratings came up.

Some people argue that speed is the only real way to judge a horses chance of winning a race…

But as with all things racing, it is never quite that simple.

Speed of course is related to distance.

It is the time it took the horse to run the race divided by the distance that gives us the speed at which the horse travelled.

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250 points profit, Three Week Free Trial

Today I want to tell you about a very special service that I've been using to find a lot of winners recently and today you can try it for free for 21 days.

The numbers in the headline are from an actual live service called Stat of the Day. As the name suggests, this is a one-a-day service with a strong statistical background. Since it started in November 2011, the service has registered 292 wins from 1031 bets (better than 28% winners), and has returned a profit for its readers of £2,505 to £10 level stakes.

Those aren’t fictional figures either. Rather, every single bet has been recorded and tracked on site… and followed and backed by over 650 loyal members.

Anyway, like I said, I’m telling you about it today because you can put this brilliant info to work for you for the next three weeks, gratis.Continue Reading

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Drifters – Good or Bad

Today's pearl of wisdom has been inspired by a bet on the Racing Consultants (http://racingconsultants.co.uk) tipping service last week.

This bet has been the talk of the office because we got so many emails and opinions in about it.

Basically last Thursday David Massey posted up four bets

Today

7.15 Kempton – 1pt win Taaresh (8-1 Bet Victor, Paddy Power, W Hill and others)

7.45 Kempton – 1pt e/w Tevez (9-1 Skybet, Stan James, Coral)

2.15 Wincanton – 1.5pts win Silver Commander (at 6.6 and above Betfair)

2.15 Wincanton – 2pts lay Silver Commander at 2.76 in running.

4.5pts staked

The one that caused the fuss was Taaresh, this is what David wrote as his reasons for making the selection.

An angle we like to use on a regular basis is a horse that's improved or refound it's form over jumps that then reverts to the Flat with a mark that looks on the low side, and Kevin Morgan's evergreen TAARESH fits that bill nicely here. Winner of a competitive 0-120 at Worcester that's worked out quite well, he followed that up with a win off 7lb higher and in better class at Wincanton, a sign that he's clearly in good heart at the moment. Upped in class again for his latest start at Musselburgh, he was far from disgraced in finishing fifth, just getting outpaced in the last quarter of a mile. Back on the Flat and in a low grade handicap, he looks well treated off just 70 here and as a C&D winner for Joe Fanning in the past, has no issue with the conditions either. A slight worry we have is the lack of pace in the race, but that is only a minor one, as he does travel well in his races and isn't short of pace should it turn into a burn up in the straight.

You'll note that the price available at the time the bet was posted was 8/1.

By race time he opened up at 16/1 and drifted out to 25/1!

So the question is, if you hadn't already had your bet placed and a top service tipped you a horse at 8/1 that was now 16/1 and drifting to 20's then 25's would you have bet it?

And would you still have your full stake on it?

Or would you assume that it had no chance because of the price and not bet only to watch it win.

So many people will not bet a horse that drifts because they see it as a negative sign.

Gamblers who make money from their betting would see it as a good sign that they are getting extra value!

My advice is if there is sound reasoning as to why a horse should be a selection then your only concern with the price is that you get the best price that you can.

As I've used Racing Consultants as an example I should mention that the service has now been live for 6 month and every month has been a profitable month with a total profit of £1784.50 to £10 stakes. Which is pretty good for a service that costs just £30 per month. http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

4.10 Kempton Zman Awal – win bet 2/1 Paddy Power

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Long Distance Jockeys

I've just been reading an article by Josh Wright where he shares a jockey angle to profit from.

Basically he's uncovered three jockeys that do exceptionally well in races of 3 miles and longer.

…all three are clearly superb judges of pace, either winding up their mounts from the front or pouncing at the right time to take the prize. They also give their horses confidence at their fences as well as getting the firepower to go to war with.

The three jockeys are James Reveley, Paul Moloney and Paddy Brennan.

James Reveley

Rules:-
Handicap Chases over 3 miles plus
September-April Inclusive
Class 2,3,4,5
20/1 or below
Results (2010-) :-

James Reveley 3 mile +

James Reveley has had a consistent record for some time in these types of races and is a superb horseman as well as a great judge of pace. His mounts should always be kept onside during main National Hunt season over these marathon trips.

Paul Moloney
Rules:-
Handicap Chases over 3 miles plus
November-April inclusive
Class 1,2,3,4
20/1 or under
Results (2010-):-

Paul Moloney 3miles +

Paul Moloney is renowned for waiting out the back on his mounts and timing his challenge perfectly. To perform 77% above market expectations says everything about his ability to win on horses that the market has not given a chance to. His rides in long distance handicap chases are always worth a second look.

Paddy Brennan

Rules:-
Handicap Chases, 3 miles to 3 miles 4 furlong inclusive.
Class 3,4,5
12/1 or under
Results (2010-) :-

Paddy Brennan

Paddy Brennan is a superb rider over 3miles-3m4f in the lower classes of racing. He is best known in recent years for his association with Tom George, however he also gets plenty of rides for Fergal O’Brien and the odd ride for other trainers. Definitely a rider who gives confidence to his mounts and who judges pace superbly. He is still underestimated by the market.

These 3 have won nearly 400 points to BFSP since the beginning of 2010 and they are showing no signs of stopping anytime soon.

Read the original article and others at http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/

Today's Selection

12:10:00 Southwell Company Secretary – win bet 15/8 Bet 365

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