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Royal Ascot Tips

Royal Ascot Tips

Our regular guest contributor Nick Hardman is posting his thoughts for every race of the 5 day Royal Ascot Festival on the Betting Insiders Club forum.

If you're a member there then pop over to http://betting-school.com/phpbb and you can get through the card analysis and Royal Ascot Tips.

If you're not a member then not to worry because we have bagged you one of Nick's assessments for free…

2.30pm Queen Anne Stakes

With my ante-post fancy Olympic Glory not lining up I have had to take another look at this race. The vibes from the Hannon yard suggest 
Toronado is fit, raring to go and as good as ever, although the fact no horse has won this on their reappearance since 1997 tempers enthusiasm slightly.

However, on closer inspection of the field he probably only needs to run to his rating to win this comfortably and you could argue that he has to underperform not to take this.

He also won first time out as a 2yo and as a 3yo so he undoubtedly goes well fresh.

I make him a worthy favourite but I would only back him at Evens with William Hill as they offer their usual money-back for 2nd place on C4 races.

The one at an each-way price could be French raider Anodin @12/1 who has been supplemented for this at a cost of £35k.

On paper he looks to have it all to do. He has just one Group win to his name in the Group 3 Prix Paul De Moussac and has come up short in Group 1 & Group 2 company since.

However, his last run was by far his best effort to date, finishing 2L second to none other than Cirrus Des Aigles in the Prix D’Ispahan.

That was over 9f on soft and maybe it was the extra furlong and the extra test of stamina that brought about that improvement.

This race is over a mile and has a few potential pacesetters in the line up. He may find himself tapped for toe early but staying on to grab a place.

As a full half-sister to Goldikova (1st and 2nd in this race) and trained by the very same trainer he is certainly the most interesting runner in the field.

An alternative would be to play Anodin in the place market, where anything around 5/2 would be decent value.

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Nick Hardman is a regular contributor at the Betting School Insiders Club, you can get his analysis of all the Royal Ascot races by joining Betting Insiders – Click Here

 

Picture Credit 

 

Amateur Jockey System

Following on from Saturday's column (and winner) by Hawkeye, I've been trying to work out a way to research the system that was described for Amateur Jockey's.

Unfortunately I can't find a way to get Horse Race Base to research the rules, so instead I decide to research the performance of all amateur jockeys.

There is a list of all registered amateurs on the http://www.amateurjockeys.org.uk/ website, so I looked up each jockey to find the handful that have had more than 25 races in the last 10 years and who have made a profit to level stakes.

Jockey Rides Wins Strike Rate SP Profit ROI
Harriet Bethell 44 5 11% 2 11%
Ross Birkett 109 12 11% 29.25 26.83%
Serena Brotherton 344 54 16% 68.38 19.88%
Phil Collington 80 12 15% 12.58 15.73%
Adrienne Foley 56 7 13% 16.25 29.02%
Alison Hutchinson 28 2 7% 4 14.29%
Alice Mills 27 3 11% 16 59.26%
Catherine Walton 43 8 19% 70.5 163.95%

 

These jockeys produced enough runs to create an Amateur Jockey System.

The rules are simple, bet any horse ridden on the Flat on Turf when ridden by one of the jockey's listed above.

The results for the last 4 years are…

Runs = 381
Wins = 62
Strike Rate = 16.27%
Profit at industry SP = 187.38
Return on Investment = 49.18%

Today's Selection

Newton Abbott 2.30 Prettyasapicture – eachway bet – 7/2 SkyBet

 

Free 16/1 Winner

If you like free tips for the weekend there are a few places that you want to have your name down.

Mark Foley of Trainer Trends sends out one of his selections for free every Saturday, the last selection finished 2nd at 7/1. To receive those selections register here – http://trainertrends.co.uk

Today and every Friday Carl Nicholson sends out a selection from his service, the last one he sent was a 16/1 winner. Register for those selections here – http://valuebacking.com

Also when Carl get's late info from his various racing contacts he shares them on his Facebook page, again the latest selection was a winner advised at 10/1 – like his Facebook page to get them – http://facebook.com/valuebacking

Finally for today, if you check out the comments on yesterdays post you will see that Steve M has posted up some additional rules for the Sir Mark Prescott angle and Chris has asked about how the choice of Jockey effects the stats, here are the stats for Jockeys that have ridden 10 times or more on the qualifying horses.

Sir Mark Prescott Jockeys

Today's Selection  Courtesy of Classic Racing Club

York 6.30 Picture Dealer – win bet – 3/1 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Bet Victor, Sky Bet, Boylesport

 

 

 

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