After yesterday's look at micro systems in the Betting Insiders report I decided to have a look back at issues of the report to find some systems that I could share with you.
This one is a method for finding horses to lay and as you would expect it is based on a factor that punters over bet, that being horses that won last time out.
The article was written by the excellent Jonathan Burgess and is one of many strategies shared in his Race Specialist laying guide.
The following deadly effective laying method is taken from the Race Specialist and is just one of the many profitable betting angles contained within the manual. You can use it to identify vulnerable horses with a view to laying them on Betfair.
Bookies know the punting masses tend to over bet last time out winners (L.T.O.W) irrespective of their overall level of form consistency. The key to opposing these animals is to identify factors that are likely to make them vulnerable in their current race. To do that objectively you need to follow these steps…
1. Look at one code of racing on any given day.
2. Identify the races with last time out winners (Handicaps are best).
3. Briefly assess what they beat last time out and ask the following questions…Were the race conditions L.T.O the same as today’s race – distance, class, going?
• Is the horse stepping up in class? Has it won in this class before?
• Are its rivals proven or unproven in this class?What kind of horses did they beat L.T.O (previous winners or a field of mediocre horses with limited ability)?
• If the selection only beat a field of mediocre horses with limited ability and is facing better class rivals proven under the race conditions, in its current race, then it will be vulnerable.
• If it beat a field containing one or two half decent previous winners and is now facing mediocre rivals un-proven under the race conditions, don’t lay itDoes the horse’s form history clearly show it has a class barrier?
• Briefly scan the horse’s race history in the Racing Post to build up a mental picture of its overall ability/consistency. Has it ever won a race in this class?
• Does the level of competition in today’s race look much stronger than in the last race? Look for horses which have won or placed a close second, in the same or better class races.
There is a lot of all weather racing today and a few handicap favourites that won last time out, so it's a good day to practice your analysis of last time out winners…
Get All of John's SelectionsWhen you Trial his Victor Value serviceJust £7 for 14 DaysClick Here for Immediate Access |
Today's Selections
Southwell 2.20 Scepticism – win bet – 4/1 Paddy Power, SkyBet
Southwell 2.50 Burgoyne – each way bet – 15/2 Bet 365, Bet Victor
I Have an old book with a system that I’v used for about 35yrs. when I used in none h/caps It had a strike rate of 85% h/caps 65%. the figures speak for themselfs.by using the norm betting bank, good staking plan, and loads of common sence. that as we all know! ( my problem is I get bored and keep going off the road ) I’v used the system and still do and is as good as new. but is strict and you have to stick at it even in a long losing run, I find this by using the system and by using the systems staking plan when your winners do come they flow free and fast esspeacialy at some very carefully chossen courses that you use. (hope I’v not bored too much)…………..still learning punter.