Tag Archives: place market

King George Tips

A big days racing today with the highlight being the King George Chase.

Tomorrow we have the Welsh National to look forward to.

Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com) looks at both races and gives his selections.
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Last week we landed 2 winners from 4 selections at SP’s of 15/2 and 7/4.

This week we turn our attention to the two big races over the Xmas period – the King George VI Chase and the Welsh National.

I have covered both races in detail in the latest issue of the Betting Insiders Magazine and my opinion for the King George has not changed in that Silviniaco Conti is the best staying chaser in training right now.

I put him up as an ante-post tip in the Betting Insiders December issue @4/1.

He is now a best priced 5/2 and if you think that is value then back him.

Cue Card has disappointed this season and was out-stayed by Silviniaco Conti in last year’s King George and I cannot see him reversing that form. Champagne Fever had a hit-and-miss novice season. He was beaten in both the Leopardstown Xmas festival and Punchestowns Festival and arguably his best performance was his 2nd place finish in the Arkle. He was impressive on his seasonal reappearance when he beat Alderwood over 2 ½ miles.

The King George is much tougher and he is too short in my opinion at 10/3.

Al Ferof easily won the Amlin Chase over 2m 3f at Ascot in November and was third in the King George last year (beaten 14 ½ lengths). He has won 5 of his 11 chase starts but has come up short tackling 3 miles in the past. He was slammed 25 lengths by Harry Topper in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury last February over 3 miles and followed that up with a disappointing 5th in the Ryanair.

I think his form flatters to deceive and I cannot see him winning this year’s King George.

I think Dynaste is a much better each-way proposition as he definitely gets the 3 mile trip and ran Silviniaco Conti to within 1 ¼ lengths in the Grade 1 Betfred Bowl at Aintree in April. Beaten 10 lengths by Silviniaco Conti in November’s Betfair Chase was a decent effort first time out this season and I think he rates a danger to the favourite.

He is one for the each-way backers @14/1 or those who want to play the place market.

King George VI Chase:

Selection: Silviniaco Conti @5/2
Each-way alternative: Dynaste @8/1

The Welsh National is a great race for trends analysis and this is the typical profile:

• Aged 7yo or 8yo
• A top 4 finish LTO
• Carrying 10-09 or less (10-0 or 10-01 if the going is heavy)
• Had last raced 16 – 60 days previously
• Had 1 or 2 runs in the current season
• Had previously raced over 3m 5 ½ furlongs of further (preferably 4+ miles)

Those that currently fit the profile are Global Power, Amigo and Emperor’s Choice.

It remains to be seen if any make the final cut.

Amigo for David Pipe was runner up in the trial race 3 weeks ago and finished 7th in this last year. He has winning form at Chepstow over 3 miles and acts on the ground.

Oliver Sherwood’s Global Power has bits and pieces of form over staying trips including a 4th place finish in 2013 Midlands National and a win in the Cumberland Handicap Chase over 3m 2f on heavy ground in 2013 and a 2nd place finish in the same race 12 months later.

Emperor’s Choice for Venetia Williams won the 2013 Surrey National over 3m 4f on heavy ground and followed that up with a win in the West Wales National in 2014 over 3m 4f. His chase form on heavy going reads 2111612. A thorough stayer if ever there was one.

Welsh National trends horses:

Global Power @25/1
Emperor’s Choice @25/1
Amigo @14/1

Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://bettinginsiders.com )is back with us for a look at the racing action today and Saturday.

Racing Tips

Donald McCain Jr provided us with a couple of winners up at Musselburgh a fortnight ago and this Friday we hope for more of the same from a trainer with an excellent record at Ffos Las.

Rebecca Curtis has sent out 20 winners from 81 runners at the South Wales track in the last 2 years at a strike rate of 25% and a level stakes profit of £12.00.

She has decent prospects of adding to that tally today, especially with Davy Russell booked for four of the five rides

Rebecca Curtis runners at Ffos Las, Friday November 21st:

12.40 Vintage Vinnie
1.10 Binge Drinker
2.15 Tara Road & Champagne Rian
4.00 Veripek

Elsewhere on Friday’s cards, Virak looks a novice chaser of huge potential and he looks good value to follow up his seasonal reappearance win when easily beating subsequent winner Deputy Dan.

Haydock 2.30pm Virak @11/8

Saturday sees top class racing from Haydock and Ascot with the highlight being the Betfair Chase. The race itself is not a great betting race with Cue Card, Silviniaco Conti and Dynaste all around 10/3. Double Ross looks hugely overpriced at 25/1 considering he was beaten 4 lengths by Menorah and a short head by Taquin Du Seuil in the Charlie Hall Chase.

That day he had Medermit, Silviniaco Conti and the Giant Bolster in behind and they all re-oppose on Saturday. Clearly he lacks the class of the market leaders but if a couple of them fail to fire then I can see him sneaking a place. He is also fairly unexposed as a chaser over staying distances with his run in the Charlie Hall Chase being his first chase run beyond 2m 5 ½f. The Betfair place market would be the way to go as they will still pay 3 places if one or more of the 8 are withdrawn on the day of the race.

The one race on Saturday that does appeal is the Betfair Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock and the horse I want on my side is Trustan Times. He won this 2 years ago and was not disgraced in finishing 8th last year. His last run over hurdles saw him finish 4th in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, beaten just ¾ length. He followed that up with 3rd in the Scottish National so we know he stays every yard of the 3m trip and looks a cracking each-way bet.

Saturday bets from Haydock:

Betfair Chase – Double Ross to place (Betfair, 3 places, currently 5.5 but look to get around 6.0 to 7.0) or if you are feeling brave back Double Ross @25/1 e/w with the bookmakers.

Betfair Fixed Brush Hurdle – Trustan Times @20/1 each-way

Place Ratings

Today we have our regular Wednesday column from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

Using ratings to find selections to place

I was never really interested in the place market on Betfair until recently.
But while working on a new ratings system I noticed a trend that got my attention.

Lately I have got very interested in high strike rate systems that normally select runners that are ranked 1st to 3rd in the betting.

Admittedly these are not the easiest systems to make money with but they can be a little more interesting to follow than your average “One a day” wait for a winner type system.

I am not knocking this type of system as I run many of them myself. I am just saying that sometimes it’s nice to have a few more selections that seem to win very often.

Over the last year or so I have been creating quite a few rating figures based on different ideas and I have shared some of these with Grey Horse Bot users.

The idea of creating any ratings is to help you identify potential winners but I think “help” is the key word…

…They can be useful in helping you to narrow down the field and letting you concentrate on just a few selections in each race.

In my last couple of articles I have mentioned that I was concentrating on the top 3 in the betting as ranked by the BSP prices early in the morning and I wanted to carry on with that idea.

I tend to try and make it a little easier on myself like sticking to “Handicap” races only as I have in this case.

As a programmer with quite a large database of results and information to use I am lucky in the sense that I can come up with ideas and then test them quite quickly.

But you should never forget the fact that humans are very good at noticing patterns.

I make sure I spend a great deal of time just looking at my ratings within the context of a lot of other racing information, just to see if I notice something that I may not have seen just by looking at individual numbers.

And this is what I was doing while looking at my latest ratings.

It appeared that the selections that I had been highlighting (I use yellow normally) to show me strong selections (although were not winning all the time) did appear to place.

Of course nothing is ever that simple and the next thing was to discover if I could come up with a way of identifying enough winning selections to make money.
And that’s where I am at the moment.

I have a list of daily selections and I have to decide which ones I am going to place.

With a couple of rules I am able to either discount the race entirely or select just one runner to follow.

If you would like to see the daily selections and the ideas I have come up with then pop over here for a look. Click Here

You can look back to the beginning of this month at the moment to see if you can find anything yourself.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

The Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

12:35:00 Fairyhouse Digeanta – eachway bet 6/1 Bet Victor, Bet 365

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