Tag Archives: pros

Bet on Goals

I recently heard about this housewife gambler who is making good steady long term gains from football betting. Specifically betting on the over 2.5 goals market.

So I made contact with Louise and she agreed to write an article for us on why she bets in the over 2.5 goals market and why you should to.

Why You Should Consider Betting On Goals

Betting on the number of goals in a game allows you to win money without having to predict who will actually win the match. Typically that means betting over or under 2.5 goals at the outset of most games.

From a strategy point of view it is a style of betting that has both pros and cons, and a bet that will split the crowd amongst professional punters.

Some pros moan that it is hard enough predicting where the goals are likely to come from without worrying about how many goals you’ll see.

For people like me, looking at the number of goals produced per match is a much more reliable – and profitable – strategy than predicting who will score them.

I am a woman, clearly. I am a working mother of two and a maths graduate.

I can’t profess to be a football expert but what I do have though, is something that many so-called experts don’t have – a genuinely mathematical mind, and a degree to prove it.

My profitable betting, which I now share with my subscribers, takes advantage of the maths-based match analysis methods I have developed for use in the football goals betting markets – specifically Over 2.5 match goals.

What I like about this market is that, not only are goals ‘good’ from a predictive point of view but also that the bookmaker’s overround is less crippling than it is in other markets such as say 1X2, HT-FT or an antepost market like say the winner of The Grand National or The Champions League.

The overround is a very important concept in betting. It ensures bookies make a profit regardless of the outcome of an event and is the foundation of a bookie’s business. The concept bookmakers use to do this is simple, they offer all bettors lower odds than those they believe an outcome is truly worth. The overround is expressed as a percentage, with a 100% book representing a market where the bookmaker has no margin whatsoever. The higher the overround percentage is then the bigger profit is for the bookmakers. If the percentage goes below 100% then the bookmaker stands to lose money.

For example, if the over-round is 120% the bookmaker will expect to pay out £100 for every £120 pounds they take in, yielding them an expected profit of 20/120 = 16.7%.

With fixed odds for three possible outcomes in a football match bet – the home win, draw, and away win – a typical overround is between 107% to 112%. Indeed some Internet firms can go as high as 118% for games in obscure football leagues where they fear that individual punters can carry a far greater edge than their hard-pressed compilers.

As a rule of thumb, the greater the number of possible result permutations within a sporting event (or within one of its constituent parts, such as a scoreline), then the greater the bookmaker's overround will be.

A correct score bet in football can have as many as 24 possible options on which to bet. A typical overround for this type of bet may be anything from 130%-160%, depending on the bookmaker. You’d probably find something similar in a competitive big field horse race such as The Grand National.

In contrast to correct score betting, total goals betting in football, where there are only two possible outcomes (over 2.5 goals or under 2.5 goals), attracts overrounds that are commonly less than 110% and sometimes as low as 102% for a Premiership game, say, where the bookies are actively looking to attract a high volume of business.

The name of the game in betting is to minimise the bookmakers’ advantage at all times while playing up the impact of the things that are in your favour whether that’s stats, a value model like mine, or local knowledge about teams and players that can impact on a result.

With that in mind betting opportunities with just two potential outcomes are always worth looking at as both the strike rate and potential returns can be excellent for those with a demonstrable edge.

If you can get your head around betting on goals then the over 2.5 goals market is absolutely one of the best betting opportunities that currently exists.

Louise' Soccer Tips service has a number of selections for this weekends footy action and I have included one for you here…

League – England Premier
Kick Off Time – Saturday 1st November 12:45
Teams & Selection – Newcastle v Liverpool OVER 2.5
Prices Available – 1.78 Betvictor Pinnacle – 1.76 Marathonbet 188Bet – 1.73 Bet365 Sbobet Boylesports
Stake – 1.5pts
Oddsportal Link
After the number crunching on this game I reckon the true odds price to be around 1.60

To join Soccer Tips or to find out more about Louise and her service go to www.soccer-tip.co.uk

Today's Selection

2.40 Stratford Summer Storm – win bet – 13/8 Boylesports

Pro Football Gambler: Defensive Line

Goran Trpevski is a former professional footballer who has his own well established tipping service. It is again in profit this season.

Goran's service offers traditional pre kick off bets and also the opportunity to follow along in play making the same bets that Goran makes.

Goran is offering a heavily discounted trial of his full service for Daily Punt readers and you can find details of that here.

Over to Goran…

In football the defensive line is very important.

The most important part of that is where you put it.

Last season Villas Boas (Chelsea) was out of a job as he chose to put his line 20 meters too high.

Mancini (Man City) only just won the league from United last season as he chose 15 meters too deep.

Where you put your defensive line in football is one of the hardest tactical choices in World football today.

Look at Celtic in the Champions League against Barca, spot on! Played very deep and Barca had all sorts of trouble.

In the Premier League there are often good examples of teams trying to play a high line against the better clubs. Last season I remember Norwich trying to hold a high line and I told my members that would never work against City who then thrashed them 6-1.

Where you put your defensive line is key for a lot of things today and as punters we must have our eyes open. We must see before the coaches do what is going on and take advantage of it.

Last season there were two classic examples we could take advantage of which were Villas-Boas at Chelsea and Solbakken at Cologne. Both got it all wrong putting their backline 40 meters up the field and we were able to profit from this before both coaches lost their jobs.

We should also know that the Italian coaches also get it wrong when they hug their goalkeepers with their defenders. The Chelsea under Di Matteo and the Chelsea under Villas Boas has like 30 metres difference in where the backline is. As punters we must know this the same second teams change coaches and this season we are finding examples like this again.

Yes we can say man Goran speaks too much football. Bla bla bla he thinks he is a coach bla bla bla.

But the fact is this:-

Our betting wins and the profits that come with them are pretty much down to the football analysis I make (of course other factors come along like finding value etc). Once there is a change in coach then pretty much all things change and that is where my knowledge and experience count and my members will know this before anyone else.

Where can this help with betting?

If it’s over bets (Number of goals) then we might have an edge with the new coach (one thing having Zemen (now at Roma) in charge and another having Di Matteo. 10 of the 12 matches that Zemen’s Roma have played this season have been over 2.5 goals and 8 have been over 3.5.

If its corners we will also know what’s going on as high defensive lines and low defensive lines in corner bets makes a big difference.

Statistics such as offsides, cards, ball possession etc can all change very very fast once there is a new man in charge.

Do this next time you watch a game.

Watch where and how the defensive line moves of the teams you study. Do they push up? Where do they set the line? If they are behind in the game, what happens then? Push up more? But by how much?

If they are ahead in the game, what then? Play deeper? Hug the keepers like Mancini’s team does?

Try to read I mean really try to read what’s going on in the game. At the moment I am “coaching” a local guy about what to do and he is all confused.

He asks “Goran why do I need to watch the game without noise coming from the TV”…. because you don’t want amateurs (commentators/pundits) making your mind up with the wrong information.

“Goran why do I need to have my mobile phone switched off”… you can’t be disturbed; you are working not having fun.

“Goran why must I watch the game by myself”…. your friends are not pros, you are or you want to be.

Slowly he and some of you (only some as most will fail as that’s the way it is) will get some kind of edge if you follow my thinking and thoughts.

Start with the defensive line and see how they move, why they move, who moves etc. There is a good edge here for punters if they understand what they are seeing.

Today's Selection courtesy of Value Backing Extra (Carl had a 50/1 eachway success on Saturday)

Kempton 6.30 Instance 1/4pt win @ 12`1 Bet365 BOG

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