Tag Archives: questions

SP Before the Off

Grey Horse BotToday we have the first post from new contributor Malcolm Pett.

Malcolm explains how we can know the Betfair SP and bet based on Betfair SP before the off!

Here's Malcolm…

Just about every system you come across on the web would first have been created using past data.

If this is the case then the result will be shown using either SP (Industry Standard starting price) or BSP (Betfair Starting Price) for results.

There is nothing really wrong with this because it is the only way of giving people the chance to check the results they are seeing as being accurate.

But where it does cause an issue and pose a problem is when it is a price sensitive system or a system that relies on being on a particular ranked runner, like the favourite.

BSP and SP are calculated at the off.

You may think by looking at the ranking a few seconds before the off will tell you who was favourite, second favourited etc…

But often this isn't the case. The BSP/SP announced ranking can be different to the just before the off rank.

A short test we did with Betfair some time back clearly showed that the rankings can differ by as much as 1 or 2 runners in every 10.

Maybe this doesn’t sound too bad…

…But when you consider you could be following hundreds or even thousands of bets over the course of a year…this could easily change the results you were expecting or the results being advertised.

The same is true of price. The price before the off is often different to BSP/SP causing even more inaccuracies in your system.

So what can you do to make sure you are on the correct runner or within the correct price range?

You may already know that just as Betfair's market goes in-play the BSP price and ranking is made available through their API.

So we have developed a great feature on the Grey Horse Bot that allows the bot to read the BSP price and Ranking as soon as it happens.

This gives the Grey Horse Bot user the opportunity to choose which ranked runner to bet on or to only place a bet into the market if it is within the price range you require.

When you create your own system it should be part of your testing to determine if you get better prices before the off or in-play. You can test both automatically with the Grey Horse Bot.

Thank you for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

——

Malcolm is the creator of a number of Betfair automated betting products like the Grey Horse Bot. He also writes articles for Betfair. Apart from automation Malcolm likes creating and testing systems and believes his readers should have all the statistical facts available to make proper informed decisions.

If you have any questions about bots or automation please add a comment and we'll try and answer them.

First Time Headgear How To?

We had a few questions yesterday asking how we find horses that are wearing headgear for the first time.

I use Horse Race Base, in their Daily Cards section there is a Shortcuts link where they list a whole host of shortcuts, one of which is 1st Time Headgear.

If you're not a Horse Race Base user then there are other places to find these horses.

In the Racing Post race cards there is a letter after the horses name that indicates the use of headgear.

Headgear –
b=blinkers,
v=visor
e/s = eyeshield
h = hood
t = tongue-strap
p = sheepskin cheekpieces.

A superior 1 denotes 1st time headgear

Here's an example from today of a horse wearing a Visor for the first time…

Visor First Time

 

At the Sporting Life it's the same format but the indicator is located after the horse's weight…

Sporting Life Visor

 

But probably the best free way to find these horses is to use the Sporting Life' Today's Pointers page which you can find in the left hand menu of the racing section.

Or go direct using this link http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/pointers

On this page they have a section for horses wearing Blinkers for the first time and also a Cheekpieces section, which lists all horses wearing cheekpieces and you can find first timers by looking for the 1 after the ‘p'.

Finally for today there is a useful page on the Racing Post that explains how to read the racecard.

Here's the link http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/help.sd

Today's Selection

3:00 Southwell – Longside – Win Bet – 6/4 Bet Victor

Creating Betting Systems II

Today we have a regular weekly catch up with Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

In last weeks article I discussed how I prefer to create systems from archived data and also discussed how I come up with research ideas.

Lets continue…

Things I have noticed.

When you analyse horse racing as much as I do then sometime you will just notice something that looks interesting.

Because I also write the software that analyses our own archive I have to do a lot of testing to make sure a new feature works how it should.

During this testing I will sometimes find something profitable. So I will put it in my “scratch file” to look at when I have more time.


To be honest I am not always sure where some of these ideas come from maybe it just the way my brain works!

Ratings System

I must admit at the moment creating rating systems is one of my main interests.

I know not everyone thinks they are useful but for me they give you the chance to be more consistent with your selections.

Especially when you narrow your searches to particular race types like Handicap, Hurdles.

There are a lot of different ways of creating ratings and again Grey Horse Bot members get a couple of their own to use.

I am at this moment working on my 6th version. Each time I try to pick a completely different way of coming up with the figure using ideas that I haven’t used before.

So I have picked an idea what’s next?

Here are some initial things I think about before I start my research.

Is this a back or lay system?
How many selections a day, week or month am I looking for?
Is there a strike rate I would like to see?
How much profit am I hoping for?
What ROI am I looking to achieve?

Now I know that you may be thinking…

“Surely you can not answer those questions until you find a system?”

And that is a correct assumption except…

…I have an idea of the type of systems, strike rate, profit and ROI I prefer.

I tend to like backing systems over lay systems.

I don’t really care about how many selections a day I get…but many people want at least some “action every day”.


I am ok with a strike rate of 13% or better but don’t tend to like them under that percentage because of the chance for very long losing runs. (You could be different.)

Although I like profit…ROI is my thing I am looking for a good return on my investment.

By taking the time to ask these questions you will save yourself time pursuing ideas that are unlikely to fulfil your personal needs.

Next week we will finish off with some further things you should know about creating your own systems.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd”

Find out more about the Greyhorse Bot at http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

4.55 York Bragging 11/4 generally

Creating Betting Systems

Today we have a regular weekly catch up with Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

Betting systems really fascinate me especially horse racing ones.

It’s probably the main reason I have been creating them for over 12 years.

There are plenty of ideas about how to find winners (or losers) and creating systems is not always the most popular solution.

Many people believe the only way to actually pick a horse to follow in a race is to judge it against every other runner. Look for reasons why one selection has a better chance than all the others.

Although I do agree with this idea it’s not an easy thing to do and those that are most successful at it have spent a lot of time analyzing races and honing their skills.

Systems still take time to research, create and test but once you find something that appears profitable it can become a lot easier and quicker to get your daily selections.

And as I prefer automation it stands to reason this will be my favourite way of finding winners.

Anyway I thought over the next 3 articles I would give you an insight into how this “nerds” brain works (hmm not to sure you want to know) when he is trying to develop a system.

The first thing you are going to need is results.

There are plenty of sites about which allow you to analyse past data to see if you can find a way of picking winners.

Even our Grey Horse Bot members have access to our own growing archive of 230,000 + runs.

I have probably mentioned this before (I tend to repeat myself) that you must remember when you use past data it may contain information that you wouldn’t have known about until either in-play or after the event.


I tend to mention “number of runners” as an example.

Until the actual off, we have no way of knowing how many runners actually started the race.

SP and BSP are not available until in-play so you can only use these as a guide to the profitability of a system.

Until you actually test the system you will have no idea if you can actually get anywhere near to the profit you were expecting.

One of the questions I tend to get a lot is 
“Where do you start? How do you come up with the ideas for research?”

It’s a good question…

I tend to have 3 main ways of finding an idea.

Other peoples ideas.
Things I have noticed
Rating systems.


Other peoples ideas

Nope I don’t mean steal someone else’s system. 

What interest me is that sometimes in a forum, blog post, article or just during a conversation someone may mention a small triaval fact like…

“Beaten favourites do well when…”

Or

“Have you ever looked at 2 year olds on a AW running for the first time”

Or

“I have heard 4th LTO doing really well at this course….”

You get the idea.

I normally write these ideas down and check them out later.

Normally you end up finding out that there isn’t any profit in the idea or that there was just a trend that someone may have noticed that didn’t last long.

In next weeks article I will look at the other 2 points and

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd”

Find out more about the Greyhorse Bot at http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

6.40 Yarmouth Authorized Too – win bet – 15/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power

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