Tag Archives: race time

Drifters – Good or Bad

Today's pearl of wisdom has been inspired by a bet on the Racing Consultants (http://racingconsultants.co.uk) tipping service last week.

This bet has been the talk of the office because we got so many emails and opinions in about it.

Basically last Thursday David Massey posted up four bets


7.15 Kempton – 1pt win Taaresh (8-1 Bet Victor, Paddy Power, W Hill and others)

7.45 Kempton – 1pt e/w Tevez (9-1 Skybet, Stan James, Coral)

2.15 Wincanton – 1.5pts win Silver Commander (at 6.6 and above Betfair)

2.15 Wincanton – 2pts lay Silver Commander at 2.76 in running.

4.5pts staked

The one that caused the fuss was Taaresh, this is what David wrote as his reasons for making the selection.

An angle we like to use on a regular basis is a horse that's improved or refound it's form over jumps that then reverts to the Flat with a mark that looks on the low side, and Kevin Morgan's evergreen TAARESH fits that bill nicely here. Winner of a competitive 0-120 at Worcester that's worked out quite well, he followed that up with a win off 7lb higher and in better class at Wincanton, a sign that he's clearly in good heart at the moment. Upped in class again for his latest start at Musselburgh, he was far from disgraced in finishing fifth, just getting outpaced in the last quarter of a mile. Back on the Flat and in a low grade handicap, he looks well treated off just 70 here and as a C&D winner for Joe Fanning in the past, has no issue with the conditions either. A slight worry we have is the lack of pace in the race, but that is only a minor one, as he does travel well in his races and isn't short of pace should it turn into a burn up in the straight.

You'll note that the price available at the time the bet was posted was 8/1.

By race time he opened up at 16/1 and drifted out to 25/1!

So the question is, if you hadn't already had your bet placed and a top service tipped you a horse at 8/1 that was now 16/1 and drifting to 20's then 25's would you have bet it?

And would you still have your full stake on it?

Or would you assume that it had no chance because of the price and not bet only to watch it win.

So many people will not bet a horse that drifts because they see it as a negative sign.

Gamblers who make money from their betting would see it as a good sign that they are getting extra value!

My advice is if there is sound reasoning as to why a horse should be a selection then your only concern with the price is that you get the best price that you can.

As I've used Racing Consultants as an example I should mention that the service has now been live for 6 month and every month has been a profitable month with a total profit of £1784.50 to £10 stakes. Which is pretty good for a service that costs just £30 per month. http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

4.10 Kempton Zman Awal – win bet 2/1 Paddy Power

Epsom Derby Tips

Yesterday Nick got Volume placed in the Oaks, hopefully you got the 20/1 that was available all week because come race time she was backed from 16/1 into 9/1.

Intimal shortened from 10's in the morning to 8/1 and Madame Chiang from 16's into 9/1.

BTW I've just been looking through the various tips I get each morning and I see that Hawkeye have tipped a 50/1 and a 66/1 shot at Epsom this afternoon 😮

Today we'll recap Nick's Derby selections.

Geoffrey Chaucer is second favourite having been backed in from 12s to around 7s (Now 11/1). He was unlucky in the Leopardstown trial and was eased down into 3rd after being squeezed for room.

That was over 1m 2f and he appears versatile ground-wise. I think the money coming for him is significant and I’d be delighted to see Ryan Moore (Ryan rides) on board. The 8/1 with PaddyPower looks a solid bet and with only 3 runs under his belt there is surely more to come.

Of the remainder, Aiden O’Brien’s Orchestra is interesting after overcoming greenness to win the Chester Vase over the exact same trip as the Derby. After just 3 runs he is open to plenty of improvement and he showed that day that a mile and a half is within his reach.

Read the full detail of Nick's assessment here

Epsom Derby Selections

Best value: Geoffrey Chaucer @11/1 PaddyPower
Each-way alternative: Orchestra @16/1 Bet Victor

Formula 1 Betting

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This weeks main tips for the Malaysian Grand Prix are not out yet, but having read the comprehensive preview there is one bet that I'm going to get involved with.

The F1 tipster built up a big argument as to why Lewis Hamilton is huge value at 2/1 to win the Malaysian Grand Prix, but it boils down to the fastest driver in the fastest car is 2/1 to win when they should be odds on.

The bet is to either back Hamilton and lay him off when his price shortens closer to race time, or just back and hold.

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Today's Selection

2.00 Lingfield – Drawnfromthepast – win bet – 3/1 Racebets

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