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Big Race Tips

Thank Nick it's Friday 🙂

Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com) is back with tips for today's racing at Exeter and tomorrow at Sandown and Aintree.

By the way Nick also has an excellent article in the December On Course Profits magazine which explains his methods for finding winning trainer angles.

You can get that magazine for free at http://oncourseprofits.com

Over to Nick…

I have been working on some betting angles for the AW Championships that I will share with you as soon as they are ready. For a bit of a change I have taken a look at Friday’s card from Exeter which features three valuable races. We follow that up with a trends analysis and some pointers for the Becher Chase and my fancies for the Tingle Creek and the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase.

Exeter hosts a really good card today including a ÂŁ12k Novice Chase, a ÂŁ15k Handicap Chase and the ÂŁ12k Devon Marathon Handicap chase over 4 miles. I have gone through the card in search of value plays and worthwhile betting opportunities.

The novice chase at 1.10pm is a fascinating race featuring a couple of smart former hurdlers in Deputy Dan (2nd in the 2014 Albert Bartlett and rated 145 over hurdles) and Saphir Du Rheu (Lanzarote hurdle winner and Welsh Champion hurdle winner last season and rated 168). Deputy Dan has form figures 21 over fences.

He was beaten on debut by Virak who has since followed up in impressive fashion at Haydock. Deputy Dan won his next start, beating Far West who was also a decent hurdler. That gives him a form line with Dunraven Storm (who also beat Far West) who won a Grade 2 Novice Chase at Cheltenham’s November meeting.

Saphir Du Rheu unseated on debut but is held in high regard by Paul Nicholls and he would win this if translating his hurdles form to fences. Connections (same ownership as Big Buck’s and Celestial Halo) have said they might go back over hurdles if he fails to perform here. If you think he won’t get round you can lay him for a place on the exchanges at around 1.10. If pushed for a tip I would go for Deputy Dan on that form line with Dunraven Storm.

The handicap chase at 1.40pm will probably see Paul Nicholl’s Wilton Milan go off favourite following an impressive win last time out that saw him finally get off the mark over fences. However, I am happy to take him on and the two that interest me are Workbench and Umberto D’Olivate.

Workbench has been on the go since August notching 3 wins in the process. His last two starts were a decent 5th of 11 behind John’s Spirit at Cheltenham and a 4th (revised to 3rd) in the Badger Ales Trophy over further than ideal. He travelled as well as anything that day before making a bad mistake.

The drop in trip could work out well but the concern is that all three wins came on good ground. His trainer Dan Skelton has said he does not want it soft. However, his last two runs were on good to soft so I will definitely be backing him if the going has the word “good” in it.

Umberto D’Olivate was very progressive last season, rattling off a hat-trick and he will come on for his seasonal reappearance. The slight concern is that his best form is over shorter so this trip might just stretch him.

The Devon Marathon Chase has a small field and the 4 miles takes some getting. It is another race that features a few horses with smart previous form and it also lends itself to a trends analysis.

No 6yo has won this since 2000 and no horse in that time has carried more than 11st 10lbs to victory. All of the last 5 winners were rated 110+ and all of the winners completed their previous race.

That leaves us with Reblis, Adrenalin Flight and Gorgehous Lliege.

Reblis is back down to his last winning mark but has shown nothing on his last two starts. He has won over 3m 5f on heavy off today’s mark of 119 so should see out the trip if in the right mood.

Adrenalin Flight has 49 lengths to find with Gorgehous Lliege but gets a 17lb pull in the weights. I doubt that will make much difference though as Gorgehous Lliege looks quite progressive over staying trips and should go close if this does not come too soon.

Reblis and Gorgehous Lliege are the two trends horses against the field. For the brave amongst you, Flying Award has won a Devon National, a Highland National and a Somerset National. However, his form figures since read PP0. I’ll leave that one up to you.

The Becher Chase is run over the Grand National fences where the horses jump 21 obstacles over a trip of 3m 2f. 16 of the last 17 winners had a top 5 finish LTO. Only one 7yo has won since 1997 and 8 of the last 9 winners were aged 9yo or older. The last 9 winners were all rated 130+ and only one of the last 13 winners carried 11st 7lb or more. In fact 10 of the last 13 winners carried under 11st. 15 of the last 17 winners had between 0 and 2 season runs and 8 of the last 11 winners had won over 3m or further.

The one horse who ticks all the boxes is Benbens for Nigel Twiston-Davies. The two that who fall down on just the one trend are Knock A Hand for Richard Lee and Renard for Venetia Williams. This may be a prep run for Knock a Hand ahead of a tilt at the Welsh National, Benbens has had just 6 chase starts and Renard looks a shade high in the weights. None of these are really fancied in the market and I have not seen them tipped up anywhere, but we rolled the trends dice and that’s what we have.

If you are not a fan of trends then there are a couple of other ways of looking at the race and one is course experience.

There are plenty of horses who have shown they jump these fences well including Saint Are, last year’s winners Chance Du Roy and Mr Moonshine. However the most interesting could be Across The Bay @25/1 who led the last two Grand Nationals for a fair way.

In 2013 he led until fence 26 and last year he was bowling along in front until carried into a different post code by a loose horse after fence 16. However, usual jockey Jason Maguire opts to ride Donald McCain’s other runner Kruzhlinin who is an even bigger price @40/1.

Despite this I think Across The Bay could well give each-way backers a run for their money. Saint Are @14/1 is probably the best handicapped horse in the race here off 127 which is 10lbs lower than his last winning mark. He ran his best race in a long time on his first start for Tom George at Cheltenham in November and he has attracted some support this week. It’s a wide open race and a case can be made for most of the runners. I will probably back the trends horses and Across The Bay to small stakes with any bookmaker offering 5 places. It would be a pleasant surprise if one of them were to win.

The Grand Sefton Chase looks like a cracking renewal. The trends on this one are not that strong but the one horse that ticks the most boxes (aged 8yo -10yo, rated 123+, carrying less than 11st 5lbs and a top 5 finish LTO) is Rebel Rebellion who attempts back to back wins off a 5lbs higher mark. 8/1 is plenty short enough.

One I like at a bigger price is Dolatulo who has a good form line through Court By Surprise (promoted to winner of the Badger Ales Trophy after disqualification of Young Master) whom he walloped by 35 lengths at Stratford back in March. His seasonal reappearance behind Sound Investment was a great prep for this race considering the 1st and 4th from that race occupied the front two places of the novice chase at Newbury on the first day of the Hennessy meeting. Up To Something for Charlie Longsdon could also outrun his price if taking to these fences.

The Tingle Creek has been far more straightforward for me. I think God’s Own has a huge chance and I have backed him @9/2 even when he held another entry in the novice chase on the same card. If Somersby brings his A-game he should give each-way backers a decent run for their money @10/1.

So there are my thoughts for Friday and Saturday and hopefully a few pointers for you. Racing is all about having an opinion and the conviction to back it up with a wager. With that in mind only back the selections below if you agree with my thoughts and analysis. Good luck if you are having a bet this weekend.

Friday

Exeter 1.10pm Deputy Dan @6/4
Exeter 1.40pm Umberto D’Olivate @12/1 & Workbench @6/1 (good or good-to-soft)
Exeter 3.20pm Reblis @20/1 & Gorgehous Lliege 3/1 (trends horses), Flying Award @20/1 (for the brave)

Saturday

Sandown 3.00pm God’s Own @9/2 and Somersby @10/1 (each-way alternative)
Aintree 1.30pm Benbens @20/1, Knock A Hand @20/1 & Renard @25/1 (trends horses), Across The Bay @25/1 (each-way alternative), Saint Are @14/1 (best handicapped)
Ainree 3.25pm Rebel Rebellion @8/1 (trends horse) and Dolatulo 14/1 (each-way alternative)

Cesarewitch Tips

Today we have our weekly look at the weekends racing action from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman)

Nick has set us up with some nice winners this season and today he tries to find us the winner of the Cesarewitch to add to his tally…

Last week we highlighted in-form trainer Charlie Longsdon. He bagged us a winner that day and has followed up with another in midweek. He is still a trainer I want to keep on-side in the early part of the season and he sends a few runners to Carlisle today.

He has a decent strike rate at the track too with 6 winners from 19 runners. He has the following entries on Friday:

Charlie Longsdon Carlisle runners Friday 10/10/2014

3.10pm Drop Out Joe
3.45pm Orange Nassau
4.20pm Simply The West
5.20pm Deadly Move

Cesarewitch Tips

On to Saturday and we have the last of the big handicaps in the Cesarewitch.

Having already landed the Ebor and Cambridgeshire it is a tall order to land the hat-trick but I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t at least share my thoughts.

This race has gone to some big priced winners in recent times including winners at 66/1, 66/1 and 25/1 in the last three renewals.

Weight and official ratings do not tell us much regarding potential winners but, with the exception of Scatter Dice last year, the previous 10 winners had winning form over 2m or further.

Hurdlers have finished in the top two in 13 of the last 17 renewals. Other strong trends include a top 4 finish last time out and no more than 7 runs in the season. That helps reduce the field to 9.

One who ticks plenty of boxes is Big Easy for Philip Hobbs and the trainer knows what it take to win this having done so with Detroit City in 2006.

Big Easy looks to have solid credentials having finished runner-up in the trial race 3 weeks ago. That was his first flat run of the season and he should come on bundle for the run and he has a nice draw in stall 2.

Another who is guaranteed to stay is Chester Cup winner Suegioo. He last two runs have been over trips shorter than 2 miles and I think he will relish every yard of this trip. He was also a fine 2nd in the Northumberland Plate over 2 miles and that race is a good pointer for horses who run well in the Cesarewitch.

Another with solid prospects is Swnymor who has to turn the form around with hotpot favourite Quick Jack, but he takes him on here on much better terms (16lbs better to be exact).

My only concern is his wide draw in stall 34 but with several bookmakers paying 6 places he is still worth an each-way interest.

If you fancy taking something at a bigger price then the ultra-consistent Noble Silk, a good 4th in the Northumberland Plate, should give you a run for your money 33/1.

Nicky Henderson trained the winner of this in 2008 and Kieron Fallon rode the winner in 2012. They team up on Earth Amber @33/1 and any rain would help his cause, although he is another from our short list who has been done no favours by the draw (stall 33).

Saturday Newmarket 3.50pm

Trends horses: Big Easy @12/1 & Suegioo @16/1

Alternatives: Swnymor @16/1, Earth Amber @33/1 & Noble Silk @33/1

Betfair Trader

Today I am mostly reading about trading.

There is an interesting article in this months SmartSigger (Get your 1st month free here http://dailypunt.com/smartsig ) about the different types of Betfair trader and what sort of trader you might be.

As well as detailing different trading strategies, it also suggested a super fast trading tool which is free to use 🙂

I haven't tried it yet, but it definitely sounds like it is worth a play.

Here are some of the key features…

– Unbeatable speed – super fast trading on Betfair

– Grid Interface – single click trading, compact Betfair-style trading grid

– Ladder Interface – full depth of market, single click trading, queue position and built-in robot

– Position In Queue (PIQ) – provides a real-time estimated PIQ, arguably the most important and unique feature of our ladder!

– Automated Trading Robot – included is a unique Betfair bot, watch it trade on the ladder for you!

– Multi-Market – trade several different markets simultaneously

– Managed Markets (Guardian) – works in the background to gather data from multiple ‘managed' markets and maintain offset bets

– Tick Offset – automatically sends an opposing bet, after you get matched

– Stop Loss – automatically limits your losses. Trailing Stop Loss can also protect profits

– Racing Autopilot – it can automatically select each horse race and move forward
Greening (Cash-out) – a single click to lock in your profit (or loss) regardless of the outcome

– Advanced Charts – possibly the most comprehensive integrated charting available in any Betfair application

I think the most interesting and important feature for the trader is the advanced charts!

You can get the software here http://www.cymatic.co.uk/

If you've used it before I'd love to have your feedback in the comments.

Today's Selection

8.45 Kempton Four Cheers – eachway bet – 14/1 Bet Victor

Musselburgh Recap

We have racing at Musselburgh this afternoon, so today I'm going to revisit the pointers that Nick Hardman gave us a few weeks ago regarding trainers at this meeting.

Nick pointed us at a number of trainers that perform well at Musselburgh, with details of what types they excel with.

One of those trainers has runners today so we will look at the stats for Philip Kirby.

Nick's advice was to back Philip Kirby handicappers over 7 furlongs and longer.

Looking at the numbers I see that Mr Kirby concentrates on Handicaps, with 78 runs in Handicaps and only 7 in non Handicaps. (Musselburgh, last 4 years)

All of the non Handicap runners have lost.

The other pointer was to only bet at 7 furlongs or longer.

In fact there have only been two runs at below 7 furlongs, both lost.

Following the prescribed rules would have given the following returns over the past 4 years.

Runs = 76
Wins = 20
Strike Rate = 26.3%
Profit at iSP = 67.66
ROI iSP = 89.03%

Today Philip has…

Muss 4.10 Pass Muster (2 mile Handicap)
Muss 4.40 Iftikaar (7 furlong Handicap)

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