Tag Archives: research

Football Correct Score Trading

I've just read a cracking article in the Betting Insiders report that outlines a strategy for trading correct score football markets.

I'm sure that this will be a handy strategy to have in your betting armoury.

Basically the method outlined by Jakub Gawel involves backing high scores in games where one team is very short odds on to win.

And then as the game progresses trade out of the position as the scores shorten.

Jakub gives a couple of examples and the general scenario is that one team is starting at odds of 1.2 or less in the win market and has a history of  high scoring games.

Jakub then bet scores of 4-0 and 4-1 at double figure odds.

Then as the game progresses every time a goal is scored by the hot favourite the odds shorten on the big score lines and a profit can be locked in by laying the score line.

There is scope for this to go wrong but if you do your research this looks like a great strategy.

You will need to keep your wits about you, for example if the underdog scores you need to lay off the 4-1 score straight away because if they get another you will have two losing bets.

By betting a score to nil and a score to one either team can score first and you will still have at least one active bet to trade out of.

If you want to read the full method you can join the Betting Insiders here.

Update 2020: This is still a valid strategy, but from experience I would say that the safer strategy is to lay the smaller score lines, either 3-0 and 3-1 or 2-0 and 2,1.

The profit will be smaller from these more likely correct scores but you will be making a profit more often.

As with any football betting, especially in the correct score markets you need to do your research and when trading you need to be on the ball and ready to update your position after each goal.

Tongue Tie Research

You'll remember that last week I mentioned the Geegeez article that talked about the use of tongue ties and how a horse needs a few runs with a tongue tie before they will let them self go.

The theory being that the horse still thinks that it's tongue will get in the way and is worried it won't be able to breathe and so doesnt give all.

But after a few runs with a tongue tie it starts to realise that it doenst have tongue problems anymore.

So I've been doing some research.

First off some facts. All horses wearing a tongue tie for the first time in 2013 & 2014 produces the following big losses.

Runs = 3959
Wins = 319
Strike Rate = 8.06%
Loss at iSP = -1335.24
ROI = – 33.73%

So it seems that wearing a tongue tie for the first time is a negative factor and the losing ROI is such that maybe it has the makings of a lay system.

Then it occurred to me that the reason that the horse doesnt perform well first time out with the tie is because it is still worried about a previous experience with breathing and doesn't realise it will be ok with the tie.

But surely there are some trainers that use the tie at home and get the horse used to it and trusting it before they ever go racing with the tie on and that maybe there are trainers that win first time-out with a tongue tie.

So I had a search for trainers who are profitable with first time tongue tie wearers.

And I found some.

For example Rebecca Curtis had 22 starts over the two year period that ran with a tongue tie for the first time.

Seven of those won for a 32% strike rate and they made an industry SP profit of 5.86 which is a 27% ROI.

Charlie Longsdon had 32 starts and 8 wins and an industry SP profit of 20.3. Which is a strike rate of 25% and an ROI of 63%.

I've selected the best performers from 2013/14 and checked their 2015 performance and a good profit has been made so I'm going to run this as a system live for a while and see if we have something worth following long term.

Today's Selection

2.30 Wolverhampton Kalimantan – win bet – 11/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power

Racing Systems & Selections

On Course Profits Issue 3

Do you know what AIORT is?

Apparently it's an Acronym for And, If, Or, Then. Which is the way that most of us create betting systems.

In the February On Course Profits magazine there is a very interesting article which explains why the way most people create betting systems doesn't work.

And explains exactly how to build systems that are much more profitable.

It makes for an interesting read and has certainly given me some food for thought.

You can get On Course Profits for free on iOS and Android devices here http://oncourseprofits.com.

If you don't have a suitable device you can also buy this edition on Amazon and read it on any device – Click Here.

We have our first qualifiers for the First Time Headgear system that we posted earlier on the week.

I'm not sure I'm ready to back these yet, maybe just very small stakes! You'll recall that we did the research on 2013 and 2014 data and that we then applied the rules to January 2015 and the results were excellent.

So there has been some forward testing.

Anyway it's up to you

First Time Headgear

13:35 Taunton 6 Flanagans Field – 20/1 Ladbrokes
14:35 Taunton 11 All Yours – 13/8 Sporting Bet

By the way 20/1 selections have been profitable in the past, but obviously the strike rate is very low.

There was a 25/1 winner on January 1st this year.

Today's Selection

Huntingdon 3.35 Chatez – win bet – 15/8 Boylesports

 

 

Headgear Racing System

So last week I told you about an article over at Geegeez that put forward the idea of backing Paul Nichols runners who wear headgear for the first time.

So today I have done some research and investigated all the trainers who have been profitable in the past with their runners who were wearing headgear for the first time.

I'm looking at National Hunt only and am looking at horses who are wearing cheekpieces, blinkers or a hood for the first time.

Along the way I discovered a system with a 10,000% ROI!

Ok, I spotted a trainer who in 2014 only had one runner (Viking Rebel) who wore headgear for the first time and that runner won at 100/1.

Although that would make any system look like a winner I have not included it in my system below.

What I have got is a long list of trainers who had at least 10 runners wearing headgear for the first time from January 1st 2013 through to December 31st 2014 and who made a good profit at iSP with those runners.

Runs = 767
Wins = 127
Strike Rate = 16.56%
Profit at industry SP = 405.23
ROI = 52.83%

All the research was done on the data from 2013 and 2014 and if I run that system on 2015 so far it has already made 42 points profit in 2015.

But, here's the thing!

You could've backed every horse that wore headgear for the first time so far this year and made a profit.

I'm going to monitor this for a while and share any bets that come up on this page and then decide what to do with it once we have some live results.

There's no National Hunt racing today.

Today's Selection

3:10 Wolverhampton – Don't Be – win bet – 10/11 Paddy Power

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