Tag Archives: rise

Up In Class by Trainer Nicky Henderson

So today I am getting started on the job of researching individual trainers at individual courses when their novice hurdlers step up in class.

I'm going to start off with Nicky Henderson, simply because he has the most runners of the trainers that we have selected for this system.

It may be a case the Nicky's charges are over-bet because of his status, but we'll look at the data and see what we can find.

Because we are drilling down deeper and deeper the number of runners meeting a set of criteria will be less and less and it may be tricky to determine if a strike rate and profit is significant or not.

When looking at which courses are most profitable for Nicky Henderson, novice hurdlers that are upped in class, I have only looked at courses where there have been at least 10 qualifiers in the last 10 years.

Here's the table…

Nicky Henderson Novice Hurdlers Table

 

What jumps out is the huge profit (ROI) and strike rates at Huntingdon, Kempton and Ludlow.

Nicky Henderson is based in Upper Lambourn which is on the M4 and relatively convenient for the top class venues of Newbury, Cheltenham, Ascot, Kempton and Sandown.

Of the courses listed above Huntingdon is the furthest at around 100 miles from base.

I'm not sure if we should read something into the class of the tracks, I suppose I'm surprised that Towcester isnt in the profit list, but the stats don't lie. This is definitely how it panned out in the past, let's hope it can steer us towards some winners in the future.

Today's Selection

5.10 Pontefract Dark Ruler – win bet – 5/1 Bet Victor

Big Profit from Multiples

Do you bet in multiples?

Doubles, trebles or acca's (accumulators)?

I have always been of the opinion that these types of bets are just for the bookies benefit and have always avoided them, even though there is a promise of huge profits if they come off.

I do remember a few years back reading an article about how if you are making value bets, if you combine them into doubles or trebles that you magnify the advantage that you have because the value multiplies. But that didnt change my methods.

The results from yesterday's Racing Consultants tips have caused me to think again.

Yesterday they gave three selections to be combined into a half point each way Trixie.

A Trixie is 3 doubles (eachway doubles in this case) and a treble, so four bets.

The guys managed to land 2 of the bets, the advised prices were 6/1 and 9/1 (there was a 10p rule 4 on the 6/1)

A £5 eachway Trixie where only two of the horses won paid £376, which is a £336 profit!

That's a big return from getting just two bets home.

But the thing that really surprised me is that if they had got all three home the return would have been £5,620 for a £40 outlay.

(The non runner was 11/1)

I need to re-think my betting and staking strategy.

Do you bet in multiples? Tell me in the comments, if you've had any big wins tell me that also.

Find out more about the Racing Consultants here http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

4.00 Newcastle – Lady Bingo – win bet – 4/1 Bet 365

Favourites That Win

Today we have our regular weekly column from Malcolm Pett of GreyHorse Bot.

You can try the Grey Horse Bot including the systems creator for just £17, go to http://greyhorsebot.com

Here's Malcolm…

Favourites That Win

As you are probably already know the chances of a favourite winning a race is around 34%.

That figure can be influenced by other factors like race type and price and can drop to around 27% or rise to over 50%.

So why would I mention favourites?

We know there is no value in following them.

So what about if we look elsewhere?

What’s the win averages of the other runners?

2nd priced favourits win 20% of the time
3rd priced favourits win 14% of the time
3rd priced favourits win 10% of the time

Again this is based around all race types and all prices.

This means that nearly 80% of all winning horses come from one of the top 4 priced runners in a race.


”Yeah I know all this” I hear you say…

In my last Daily punt article I talked about what I call “Nano” systems.

This is where you look for specific types of races where you may be able to find profit.

So here is another example you may want to check out.

Using the SPB System Builder I found a trend based around 6 year old horses in class 6 running at Southwell.

If they have won at Southwell before at the exact (exact) distance they are running at again and they are favourite…then they have won 54 of the last 100 (qualifying) races resulting in a BSP profit of 37.46 points.

The system also appears to work at Kempton and Wolves but not to the same extent as it seems to at Southwell.

So although blindly following favourites is not a profitable pastime there are places you can find that appear to show a return.

Finding high strike profitable trends is interesting but as you can see you have to be pretty specific about the runners you choose.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot.

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

2.20 Yarmouth Spiriting – win bet – 9/4 Bet 365, Paddy Power

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