Tag Archives: Roc

Yarmouth Selections

There's racing at Yarmouth today so it's time to pull out our Yarmouth Trainers system.

You'll remember that back in July we published a list of trainers that were profitable to follow at Yarmouth.

Since we created that system it has had…

Bets = 41
Wins = 11
Strike Rate = 26.8
Profit at iSP = 21.13
ROI = 50.3%

Which is pretty impressive.

You can see the original article here http://dailypunt.com/profitable-yarmouth-trainers/

Today these trainers have the following runners…

14:30:00 Deep Blue Sea
14:30:00 Imtiyaaz (IRE)
14:30:00 Nouveau Foret
15:00:00 Edge of Love
15:00:00 MuffriHa (IRE)
15:00:00 Queens Pearl (IRE)
15:30:00 Mr Shekells
16:00:00 Barwah (USA)
16:30:00 Kinshasa
17:00:00 Rosslyn Castle
17:00:00 Wannabe Your Man
17:30:00 Rex Imperator
17:30:00 Royal Rock
18:00:00 Vodka Chaser (IRE)

As you can see a lot of qualifiers and some races have three qualifiers.

I'll let you decide what to do with them, you could dutch the races with multiple selections. You could add your own analysis to select just one horse in those races.

But as this is a new under test approach whatever you decide keep your stakes small.

By the way one guy who takes the trainer based system approach and does extremely well is Ed Turner at http://winningtrends.co.uk he is 37 points up so far this month using this type of system and only charges £20 per month.

Newcastle Trainer Trends

Today Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders Club takes a look at key trends for both jockeys and trainers at the Newcastle meeting.

Don't forget you can get free winning tips from the Betting School every weekend when you register on their site at http://betting-school.com.

We landed a nice winner and a few placed finishers at decent odds last Friday and this week we head off to Newcastle. The three trainers of interest are Michael Dods, Richard Guest and Tony Coyle who boast course strike rates of 16%, 16% and 19%. If we dig a little deeper we can improve on those statistics by targeting certain races and certain types of horse.

Michael Dods does exceptionally well with his 3yo handicappers at Newcastle. He has had 11 winners from 37 runners at strike rate of 30% and a level stakes profit of £27.05 since 2010. He sends the following horses to Newcastle on Friday:

2.30pm Cara’s Request & Escape To Glory in 7f handicap
3.00pm Blackfoot Brave in the 7f maiden
3.35pm Trinity Star in the 1m 2f handicap
5.10pm Dartrix in the 6f handicap

Trinity Star is the only 3yo handicapper from those horses listed above. Paul Mulrennan takes the ride on Escape To Glory, Blackfoot Brave and Trinity Star. He has ridden 3 winners from 5 rides for Michael Dods at Newcastle since 2012. Connor Beasley takes the ride on Dartrix and the Dods/ Beasley pairing have combined well this season including two winners from their last 4 starts.

Our next trainer is Richard Guest. If we concentrate on his 2yo – 4yo handicappers he has had 16 winners from 62 runners at a strike rate of 26% and a level stakes profit of £85.42 since 2010. He has a fantastic 42% place strike rate too, so backing all those runners each-way would have increased profits to £111.52. On Friday he saddles the following runners:

2.00pm Penalty Scorer in the 5f Nursery
2.30pm Johnny Cavagin & Sakhalin Star in the 7f handicap
5.10pm Hazza The Jazza in the 6f handicap

Penalty Scorer (2yo), Sakhalin Star (3yo) and Hazza The Jazza (4yo) will all be ridden by Duiilo Da Silva who claims a useful 5lbs. Richard Guest’s last 5 runners at the track have finished 21112.

Our final trainer is Tony Coyle who does quite well with his handicappers of any age. He has had 7 winners from 32 runners at a strike rate of 22% and a level stakes profit of £24.00 since 2010. He has an impressive 48% place strike rate, so backing all those runners each-way would have increased profits to £41.62. On Friday he saddles the following runners:

2.00pm Snoway in the 5f Nursery
3.00pm Molly Approve in the 7f maiden
3.35pm Shirocco Passion in the 1m 2f handicap

Snoway is perhaps his most interesting runner stepping up into handicap company for the first time after showing some ability in 3 maidens so far. She finished 4th on both her first two outings in Class 5 company before finishing a disappointing 10th of 12 in a Class 3 at York.

If we go strictly by the strongest statistics, the qualifiers are:

2.00pm Penalty Scorer @7/2 & Snoway @14/1 in the 5f Nursery
2.30pm Johnny Cavagin 14/1 & Sakhalin Star @25/1 in the 7f handicap
3.35pm Trinity Star @5/1 & Shirocco Passion @25/1 in the 1m 2f handicap
5.10pm Hazza The Jazza @12/1 in the 6f handicap

However, anything saddled by Michael Dods is worth a second look in the market whilst Tony Coyle’s horses look to be the outsiders in our list, especially Shirocco Passion who has shown nothing in 3 runs this year.

Today's Selection

6.30 Newmarket Manshaa – win bet 7/2 bet 365, bet victor

Musselburgh Tips

Today we have a guest post from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders (http://bettinginsiders.com)

Musselburgh Tips and Trainer Trends

We are off to Musselburgh in search of winners on Friday and we have a few trainers with some impressive strike rates at the Scottish track.

First up is Philip Kirby who does well with his handicap runners. He does not do so well with his sprinters so best to concentrate on those races of 7f or longer.

Philip Kirby – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014 over 7f or longer

Philip Kirby – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014 over 7f or longer

On Friday he has the following qualifiers – Forgiving Glance (2.30pm), Just Paul (3.30pm) and Rocky Two (4.30pm).

Our next trainer to follow is Alan Swinbank who also does well with his handicappers at middle and staying distances:

Alan Swinbank – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014 over 1 mile to 1 mile 6f

Alan Swinbank – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014 over 1 mile to 1 mile 6f

On Friday he runs Lady Kashaan & Dark Ruler (4.00pm). Robert Winston takes the ride on Lady Kashaan and the Swinbank/ Winston pairing has bagged 5 winners from 11 rides in the last 2 years at Musselburgh.

Our third trainer is Michael Dods. He is another trainer who excels with his handicappers at the course.

Michael Dods – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014

Michael Dods – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014

On Friday he runs Alan’s Pride (2.30pm) in the Nursery. Connor Beasley takes the ride and the Dods/ Beasley combination has teamed up for 4 winners from 6 rides at the course in the last 2 years.

A few of you have asked for a list of trainers with a high strike rate at the courses we cover in this Friday column. Here is the list for all trainers with a 20% or higher strike rate at Musselburgh since 2010 (minimum of 20 runners):

R. Fahey 24%
P. Kirby 27%
Declan Carroll 26%
M. Dods 28%
A. Swinbank 21%

On a final note for Musselburgh, William Haggas has had just 11 runners at the track since 2010 but 5 have won, including three of the last four. In fact he is 1-1 in 2012, 1-1 in 2013 and 1-2 in 2014. Keep an eye out for anything he runs up at the Scottish track.

Finally, we have previously highlighted the performance of the Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote combination at Haydock and on Friday they team up with the unraced Opportuna (6.20pm) and War Paint (6.50pm).

It will be interesting to see how they run at what may well be decent odds.

Horse Racing Drawn To Win

There’s racing at Pontefract this afternoon, so today I have an update on how the draw bias is panning out so far this year.

As you will recall from previous articles at Pontefract we bet all stall 2 horses over all distances.

Drawn to Win

There have been 9 meetings this year and using this strategy would have seen you win at 6 of those meetings.

There have been sixteen winners at..

11/1, 8/1, 4/1, evens, 8/1, 4/1, 11/2, 5/2, 10/1, 3/1, 4/1, 5/2, evens, 6/1, 9/2, 7/2

That’s a 81% return on investment!

Here’s the output from HorseRaceBase for all stall 2 runners at Pontefract in 2014.

Pontefract Stall 2 - 2014

I don’t know how long this situation will last, but here are the figures for the last three years. Prior to 2011 this was a losing strategy!

Pontefract Stall 2 2011-13
Finally I don't like to add price restrictions to my systems because it is just factoring in other peoples biases, but it's worth noting that there's only been one winner at 22/1 or bigger and that if you exclude those horses that start at 22/1 or bigger the 2014 ROI goes up to 105%!

Those are the facts, I’ll leave it to you to decide what to do with them.

Todays Selection

Pontefract 3.40 Rocket Ship – win bet – 9/4 Bet 365

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