RPR Archives • Daily Punt

Up In Class by Trainer Nicky Henderson

Posted on October 20, 2014 by Dave French • 3 Comments

So today I am getting started on the job of researching individual trainers at individual courses when their novice hurdlers step up in class.

I'm going to start off with Nicky Henderson, simply because he has the most runners of the trainers that we have selected for this system.

It may be a case the Nicky's charges are over-bet because of his status, but we'll look at the data and see what we can find.

Because we are drilling down deeper and deeper the number of runners meeting a set of criteria will be less and less and it may be tricky to determine if a strike rate and profit is significant or not.

When looking at which courses are most profitable for Nicky Henderson, novice hurdlers that are upped in class, I have only looked at courses where there have been at least 10 qualifiers in the last 10 years.

Here's the table…

What jumps out is the huge profit (ROI) and strike rates at Huntingdon, Kempton and Ludlow.

Nicky Henderson is based in Upper Lambourn which is on the M4 and relatively convenient for the top class venues of Newbury, Cheltenham, Ascot, Kempton and Sandown.

Of the courses listed above Huntingdon is the furthest at around 100 miles from base.

I'm not sure if we should read something into the class of the tracks, I suppose I'm surprised that Towcester isnt in the profit list, but the stats don't lie. This is definitely how it panned out in the past, let's hope it can steer us towards some winners in the future.

Today's Selection

5.10 Pontefract Dark Ruler – win bet – 5/1 Bet Victor

Filed Under: Systems
... ..., ads, age, aligncenter, Art, Ascot, bet, Bet Victor, BSP, case, charges, Cheltenham, chin, Class, class venues, course, courses, criteria, data, ears, end, Fin, Fit, Fr, future, GOING, huge profit, hurdle, Hurdlers, Imp, individual courses, individual trainers, isnt, job, jump, jumps, Kempton, King, list, Listed, look, Low, Ludlow, mag, meeting, mile, miles, Newbury, Nicky Henderson, novice hurdlers, number, pan, past, Pontefract, Pontefract Dark Ruler, profit, profit list, Punt, qualifier, qualifiers, research, rise, ROI, RPR, rule, run, runner, runners, Sandown, search, selection, set, shot, Sn, SP, SR, Star, start, stat, stats, Steer, Step, strike rate, strike rates, surprise, table, tee, term, thing, Towcester, Towcester isnt, Tp, track, tracks, trainer, trainers, Upper Lambourn, war, WH, width=, win, Win bet, winner, winners, Wn, |Winners |Strike Rate

Big Profit from Multiples

Posted on October 14, 2014 by Dave French • 10 Comments

Do you bet in multiples?

Doubles, trebles or acca's (accumulators)?

I have always been of the opinion that these types of bets are just for the bookies benefit and have always avoided them, even though there is a promise of huge profits if they come off.

I do remember a few years back reading an article about how if you are making value bets, if you combine them into doubles or trebles that you magnify the advantage that you have because the value multiplies. But that didnt change my methods.

The results from yesterday's Racing Consultants tips have caused me to think again.

Yesterday they gave three selections to be combined into a half point each way Trixie.

A Trixie is 3 doubles (eachway doubles in this case) and a treble, so four bets.

The guys managed to land 2 of the bets, the advised prices were 6/1 and 9/1 (there was a 10p rule 4 on the 6/1)

A £5 eachway Trixie where only two of the horses won paid £376, which is a £336 profit!

That's a big return from getting just two bets home.

But the thing that really surprised me is that if they had got all three home the return would have been £5,620 for a £40 outlay.

(The non runner was 11/1)

I need to re-think my betting and staking strategy.

Do you bet in multiples? Tell me in the comments, if you've had any big wins tell me that also.

Find out more about the Racing Consultants here http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

4.00 Newcastle – Lady Bingo – win bet – 4/1 Bet 365

Filed Under: Money
... ..., accumulator, accumulators, advantage, advised prices, age, Art, article, Ben, bet, bets, bets home, betting, big return, big win, big wins, bin, bingo, book, bookies, bookies benefit, case, change, comment, comments, Consultants tips, double, doubles, eachway, eachway Trixie, ears, Fin, Fit, Fr, gain, guy, guys, half, half point, home, horse, horses, http://racingconsultants.co.uk, huge profit, huge profits, King, Lady, Lady Bingo, land, mag, man, member, men, method, methods, need, Newcastle, non runner, opinion, point, price, prices, profit, profits, racing, Racing Consultants, reading, result, results, return, rise, RPR, rule, run, runner, selection, selections, staking, staking strategy, strategy, surprise, thing, tips, title, Tp, treble, trebles, Trixie, turn, type, types, UK, value, value bet, value bets, value multiplies, way, ways, WH, win, Win bet, wins, Won, |Winners |Strike Rate

Strike Rate Vs Odds

Posted on October 1, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Today we have a guest post from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

As you are probably well aware making money from gambling is about 2 things…
Strike rate and Average winning odds.

As strike rate goes up average winning odds can come down.

You tend to end up with two choices.

Low strike rate but high odds winners. This probably represents the real value end of the scale where you are picking runners that most people think have very little chance of winning.

Most of the time they are correct but every so often one comes in…

And normally at a very good price.

The strike rate of these systems is generally between 10 and 20%.

If you run a system like this then it’s probably better to use Betfair because the odds on outsiders can often be far better than you will find at the bookies.

Look out for long losing runs because these normally spell disaster for the un-aware punter.

Then we have the high strike rate but low odds end of the spectrum.

Here you are likely to be on the first or second favourite and value is going to be a real issue.

Strike rate should be in the high 30’s but even better if you can get to 40% or more.

Keeping an eye on your average winning odds is going to be critical and you will probably have to watch the exchanges and the bookies or even use a BOG bookie to get the best prices.

Your job here will probably be to match or beat SP as often as you can.

The perfect scenario would be somewhere in between the two but it is unlikely you will find one system that will have a reasonable strike rate with value bets.

Probably the best way to achieve this would be to use “Nano” systems.

On their own these types of systems have very few selections but tend to have strike rates of 20% or more.

Combining a number of them together means you have a better chance of getting a reasonable strike rate and achieving value.

It does mean you have more systems to follow but the long term profit could be worth the effort.

Over at the Grey Horse Bot website we test all these ideas.

At the moment we have a couple of tests looking to achieve strike rates of 40% and 50%.

As already discussed you will find the prices on the winners can be quite short but it can be surprising when you get the odd higher priced winner.

We are also running long term tests on system that have a much lower strike rate.
And you can see very clearly from the results that these types of systems have long losing runs and often only get into profit because of big priced winning selections.

When you decide on what type of system(s) to follow you have to ask yourself can you take the losing runs or are you prepared to look for the best price.

Otherwise a bunch of “Nano” systems may be the best thing for you.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

Malcom Pett is the creator of the Grey Horse Bot http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

6.45 Kempton Gibeon – win bet – 7/2 Bet 365

Filed Under: Systems
... ..., age, average winning odds, Aw, beat, best price, best prices, best thing, best way, bet, Betfair, bets, better chance, big price, big priced win, bin, BOG, BOG bookie, book, bookie, bookies, bot, bunch, chance, change, changes, choices, couple, creator, end, exchange, exchanges, eye, fav, Favour, favourite, Fin, Fit, Fr, gambling, GOING, good price, Grey Horse Bot, guest post, high odds winners, high strike, high strike rate, higher price, higher priced winner, horse, Horse Bot http://greyhorsebot.com, Horse Bot website, http://greyhorsebot.com, idea, ideas, in…, issue, job, Kempton, King, King runners, little chance, Lm, long losing runs, long term, long term profit, look, losing run, losing runs, Low, low odds, low strike rate, lower strike rate, Malcolm Pett, Malcom Pett, match, men, moment, money, Nano, norm, number, odds, outsiders, people, perfect scenario, post, price, prices, profit, Punt, punter, reading, real issue, Real value, real value end, reason, reasonable strike rate, result, results, RPR, run, runner, runners, running, runs, scale, scenario, selection, selections, site, SP, strike rate, strike rates, systems, term, term tests, test, Thank, thing, things, time, title, Tp, type, types, un-aware punter, US., value, value bet, value bets, war, watch, way, ways, website, WH, win, Win bet, winner, winners, Wn, worth, |Winners |Strike Rate

Newmarket Tips

Posted on September 26, 2014 by Dave French • 2 Comments

It's Friday, which means we have our regular guest post from Dr Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders. This week he's uncovered a trainer angle for the Cambridgeshire meeting and taken a look at the trends for Saturdays big race..

The Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting is underway and one trainer to keep a close eye on over the weekend is Richard Hannon Jr. He has an exceptional record with his horses at the Rowley Mile this season. Take a look at these stats:

Runs = 37
Wins = 10
Strike rate = 27%
Profit at SP = 86.71

However, 9 of those 10 winners have come in non-handicap races and all have been aged 2yo or 3yo.

If we stick to that age group in non-handicap races then his figures are:

Runs = 23
Wins = 9
Strike rate = 39%
Profit at SP = 98.08

At the time of writing he has the following entries over the weekend that fit those criteria:

Friday 1.40pm Midnite Angel @14/1
Friday 3.15pm Anjaal @25/1
Friday 3.45pm Windshear @13/8
Saturday 2.35 Misterioso
Saturday 3.10pm Tiggy Wiggy @6/5
Saturday 4.25pm Light Glass

Saturday’s Cambridgeshire handicap is one of the oldest handicap races in the UK and a true spectacle. Picking the winner from over 30 runners is some task so I’ll be looking at the race trends to see if they can give us any pointers.

First up it looks like a top 5 finish last time out is a pre-requisite and accounts for 15 of the last 17 winners.

Horses that have had 5 – 8 runs that season account for 11 winners since 1997, so we may be looking at a reasonably well campaigned horse.

14 of the last 17 winners had all raced beyond 1m 1f at some point in their lives and, perhaps surprisingly for a big handicap, 9 of the last 17 winners came from the top 3 in the betting and 11 winners since 1997 had also won over further than the 1m 1f trip.

Only 2 horses since 1997 have carried 9st 5lb or more to victory but all of the last 10 winners carried 8st 7lb or higher.

No horse older than 6 has won this race in that time.

From a ratings perspective, 10 of the last 12 winners were rated 95 – 104.

Putting all those into the mix gives us a shortlist of:

Bronze Angel @20/1, Velox @11/1, Big Johnny D @33/1, Bartack @33/1, Fort Bastion @40/1

From our shortlist, Velox, Big Johnny D and Fort Bastion have raced but not won over further than 1m 1f.

If you want to include that stat we are left with:

Bronze Angel @20/1 & Bartack @33/1

Good Luck
Nick Hardman

Betting Insiders

Filed Under: Systems
*Figures, ... ..., 2.35, account, accounts, age, age group, angle, Anjaal, Art, Bartack, bet, betting, Betting Insider, Betting Insiders, big handicap, Big Johnny, big race, Bridge, Bronze Angel, Cambridgeshire, Cambridgeshire handicap, Cambridgeshire meeting, campaign, close eye, criteria, Dr Nick Hardman, end, entries, exception, exceptional record, eye, Fin, finish last time, Fit, Fort Bastion, Fr, Friday, Good luck, Group, guest post, hand, handicap race, handicap races, Hannon, Hardman Betting Insiders, horse, horses, Inter, IRE, King, Light, Light Glass, list, lives, look, Low, Luck, man, mark, market, meeting, Midnite Angel, mile, Misterioso Saturday, Newmarket, Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting, Nick, Nick Hardman, non handicap races, oldest handicap races, perspective, pm, point, pointer, Pointers, post, profit, Punt, race, race trends, races, rating, ratings, ratings perspective, reason, regular guest post, Richard Hannon, Richard Hannon Jr, Rowley, Rowley Mile, RPR, run, runner, runners, runs, Saturday, Saturdays, Saturdays big race, season, season account, shortlist, site, SP, spectacle, stat, stats, Stick, strike rate, Tiggy Wiggy, time, title, Tp, trainer, trainer angle, Trends, trip, true spectacle, UK, UK and a, underway, Velox, victory, way, weekend, WH, win, winds, Windshear, winner, winners, wins, Won, |Winners |Strike Rate

Tag Archives: RPR

Up In Class by Trainer Nicky Henderson

Big Profit from Multiples

Strike Rate Vs Odds

Newmarket Tips