Tag Archives: Saturday afternoon

Free Horse Racing Magazine

Today we have a couple of updates plus details of our free mobile magazine.

Windsor Highest Drawn Horse

You'll remember we posted this on Thursday and the first meeting since the research was Saturday afternoon.

There were 6 qualifying races on the day and of the 6 bets 1 won with an SP of 8/1.

The Betfair SP was 12.0

So a good day, but the jury is still out on this system.

One helpful reader checked the year to date for this method and posted this comment…

Highest drawn horse excluding 1m3f 2014
64 bets 10 wins return to bsp less commission 103.16
1m3f races 9 bets, 1 win return 3.40.figures may be skewed by 1 horse winning at 47.55

Pontefract Draw

This had a losing day yesterday with just a one 5/2 (BSP 3.74) winner from 6 qualifying races.

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Today's Selection

Startford 6.00 Thatchers Gold – win bet – 7/4 Bet 365

Epsom Derby Tips

Following on from yesterdays Oaks analysis today we have Nick Hardman's (Betting Insiders) Epsom Derby tips.

The Derby ante-post market has been all about Aiden O’Brien’s Australia and it is 5/4 the field right now. If he lives up to the hype he will win this comfortably and if you truly believe that then I would not put you off backing him.

However, I haven’t seen enough on the racecourse to be tempted by those odds and I am happy to take him on.

Similar to the Oaks, the Derby has some strong trends that are worth exploring.

Only 2 of the last 17 winners were priced 17/2 or higher and all of the last 15 winners returned odds of 7/1 or shorter.

With 16 of the last 17 winners coming from the top 4 in the market it has certainly paid not to look too far down the list. 16 of the last 17 winners either won or filled the runners up spot on their previous start (13 won and 3 were second).

Interestingly that would rule out the top three from the betting – Australia (3rd in 2000 Guineas), Geoffrey Chaucer (3rd in the Leopardstown Derby trial) and Kingston Hill (8th in the 2000 Guineas) as well as True Story (3rd in the Dante).

It would take a surprise winner to maintain that trend on Saturday afternoon. Finally, 12 of the last 17 winners had raced beyond 1 mile and all 10 previous winners had had no more than 5 runs.

With Australia at prohibitive odds for this particular punter, I will look at the 3 behind him in the market. Geoffrey Chaucer is second favourite having been backed in from 12s to around 7s. He was unlucky in the Leopardstown trial and was eased down into 3rd after being squeezed for room.

That was over 1m 2f and he appears versatile ground-wise. I think the money coming for him is significant and I’d be delighted to see Ryan Moore on board. The 8/1 with PaddyPower looks a solid bet and with only 3 runs under his belt there is surely more to come.

The horse who beat Geoffey Chaucer that day was Fascinating Rock and he is another one with solid place prospects. He has won his last 3 starts (all over 10f) with the last two being Group 3 races.

He will surely stay and has done all his winning on good-to-soft and soft so he won’t be inconvenienced by any rain.

At 14/1 he is definitely an each-way candidate.

True Story has a lot to prove after a disappointing run in the Dante and he may just be a different horse on good or quick ground. I would have to wait and see what the going was on the day before making a decision on this horse. Kieran Fallon is very keen on him and he says we will see a different horse on the day.

Kingston Hill was an emphatic winner of the Racing Post Trophy on soft ground on his final 2 year old start but has never raced beyond a mile. Western Hymn does get 10f as his last 2 victories have shown so stamina should not be an issue for John Gosden’s colt.

He was very impressive on his seasonal reappearance but was less than convincing on his next start in the Sandown trial, hanging badly left in the final furlong.

Snow Sky took the Lingfield Derby trial but looks held by Western Hymn on their Newbury running and was trounced by Kingston Hill in the Racing Post Trophy (albeit over 1 mile).

Of the remainder, Aiden O’Brien’s Orchestra is interesting after overcoming greenness to win the Chester Vase over the exact same trip as the Derby. After just 3 runs he is open to plenty of improvement and he showed that day that a mile and a half is within his reach.

This year’s renewal is a fascinating contest, especially with Australia taking a huge chunk out of the market. Clearly connections have seen enough at home to feel Australia is much better than Geoffrey Chaucer and Orchestra.

However, if he were to lose he would certainly not be the first Ballydoyle hot-pot to be turned over by the second or third string from that stable. At the prices I think the value lies with Geoffrey Chaucer.

Of those at bigger prices, Kingston Hill, Orchestra, Fascinating Rock and Western Hymn all make some each-way appeal. I make Orchestra the pick of the four having proven himself over a mile and a half on soft ground at Chester, but all of them are worthy of consideration for an upset.

Epsom Derby Selections:

Best value: Geoffrey Chaucer @8/1 (PaddyPower)
Each-way alternative: Orchestra @16/1

Football Trading for Profit

Football Trading profitIf you want to make money from trading activity then you need to be in the football markets.

There might be racing everyday and it might seem to make sense to trade the horse racing markets.

But these are fast paced markets and you can open a position and have it go against you in an instance.

Football in play markets are fast moving as well. But what you have with football trading is a whole host of side markets which are also effected by the home, away, draw market.

This means that you can go in with a plan a prediction of how things might go with your days football trading and you can set up insurance bets. Or at least be prepared with a plan for if things go against you.

The daddy of all football trading methods was called Football Cash Generator and was published by a man called John Duncan back in about 2005.

Basically the method was to lay the draw in the 12X market and during the match if a goal was scored then that price would drift, because now a goal had been scored there was less chance of the game ending in a draw.

You could then back the draw at the higher price and you would have locked in a profit. So as long as a goal was scored you made a profit.

What if no goal was scored. Well before the match you also placed an insurance bet on the 0:0 score. This bet would cover your initial liability on the draw, so if no goal was scored you would break even.

A brilliant example of using related markets to guarantee a profit.

Unfortunately John sold about a million copies of the Football Cash Generator and the markets started under reacting because so many people were wanting to back the draw, so the price didnt drift so much after a goal.

John has a new method out at the moment and he isn't going to make the same mistake again. His Assured Soccer Profits is coming off of the market shortly so those already using it can continue to profit for years to come.

So today's message is that football trading is one of the best ways for the beginner trader to make money. And it's well within the capabilities of every one reading this to come up with their own trading strategy using the related markets.

If you want to make low risk profits from football trading and you want a ready made profitable method then try the Assured Soccer Profits system before it's too late, it works.

If you want to create your own methods but you want some help, then subscribe to the Betting Insiders Club which publishes trading angles every month.

If you want a method totally unique to yourself then I recommend that you spend your Saturday afternoons (BTW ASP has bets almost everyday) watching the 12x markets on Betfair and then in another window track the side markets. Correct Scores, Over/Unders, half time full time.

And start to understand how these markets interact.

Today's Selection

Sandown 4.25 Super Villian – each way bet

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