school Archives • Daily Punt

Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Posted on February 13, 2015 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Today we have my favourite column of the week, the Nick Hardman – Betting Insiders column.

Before I hand you over to Nick just to mention that there is a qualifier from the Tongue Tie system, which we are paper trading currently and that's 16:15 Sandown Paddy The Stout.

If you enjoy Nick's columns as much as I do then do check out the Betting School Insiders Club where you can enjoy more of his wisdom.

Here's Nick…

We have jumps racing at Fakenham and Sandown today and Nicky Henderson’s runners might be worth a second look in the betting markets given his record at both tracks.

Since January 2011 he has sent 30 runners to Fakenham and 13 have won. However, backing each of those runners to level stakes would have resulted in a very small loss at SP.

Dig a little deeper and we find that his Fakenham runners are 1-6 in chases, 8-19 in hurdles races and 4-5 in bumper races.

Taking a closer look at the hurdlers we find they are 5-10 in novice races, 2-5 in maiden races and 1-4 in handicaps.

He has the following entries at the time of writing:

1.45 Medieval Chapel (Beginners’ Chase)
3.25pm Clean Sheet (Novices’ Hurdle)
4.35pm Clemency (Mares’ NH Flat Race)

At Sandown, Nicky Henderson has had 35 winners from 145 runners in the last 5 years at a strike rate of 24% and shows a level stakes profit of £36.07.

His hurdlers are 26-95 (27% strike rate) and show a profit of £47.72.

He has won with 8 of his last 18 hurdlers at the course for a profit of £27.69.

The Barry Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson partnership has teamed up for 17 hurdle winners at Sandown from 42 runners at an impressive strike rate of 41% and a level stakes profit of £41.12.

Nicky Henderson has the following entries at Sandown today:

2.30pm Broxbourne (Geraghty) & Hel Tara (Mares’ Novice Hurdle)

One of the feature races of the weekend is the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Last Friday our trends analysis identified Violet Dancer as a likely candidate for the Betfair Hurdle and I am hoping for more of the same this weekend.

The key trends are a win over 3m or further, aged 9yo – 11yo, not raced in the last 31 days, raced over 3m 5f or further, a top two finish LTO and trained by Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell or Venetia Williams.

In addition, only 3 winners since 1997 have carried more than 11st to victory on soft or heavy going.

There is one horse who ticks all the trends boxes apart from the trainer box and that is Harry The Viking.

He has not won since his novice days from where he went on to finish runner-up to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.

That run earned him a rating of 143 and he competed in the Scottish National, The Hennessy and the Grand National after that.

However, he failed to build on that early promise and his mark plummeted to 122.

Off that mark he ran his best race in a long time when runner-up to Lie Forrit last time out when 2lbs out of the handicap. He has been raised just 2lbs for that effort.

Haydock Grand National Trial – Harry The Viking @20/1 (e/w)

At that price he would be the biggest winner since Rambling Minster @18/1 in 2009 but Rigadin De Beauchene won this @16/1 last year and 8 of the last 12 winners returned SPs of 10/1 or higher.

Filed Under: Tips
... ..., 2lbs, analysis, backing, Barry Geraghty, best race, Betfair, Betfair Hurdle, betting, Betting Insiders, Betting Insiders column, betting markets, Betting School, Betting School Insiders, box, boxes, build, Cheltenham, Cheltenham Festival, clean sheet, closer look, Club, column, course, e/w, early promise, entries, Fakenham runners, favourite, feature, feature races, festival, finish LTO, Flat, Friday, Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson, GOING, Grand National, Grand National Trial, hand, handicaps, Harry The Viking, Haydock, Haydock Grand National, heavy, heavy going, Henderson’s runners, Hennessy, horse, hurdle, Hurdlers, hurdles, Hurdles races, impressive strike rate, Insiders Club, jumps, key trends, level stakes, level stakes profit, long time, look, loss, LTO, Lucinda Russell, maiden, maiden races, mark, markets, mention, National Hunt, NATIONAL HUNT CHASE, NH Flat Race, Nicholls, Nick, Nick Hardman, Nicky Henderson, Novice hurdle, Paddy, paper, Paper trading, Paul Nicholls, price, profit, qualifier, race, races, racing, rating, Rigadin De Beauchene, run, runner, runner-up, runners, Sandown, Sandown Paddy, school, School Insiders Club, small loss, Soft, SP, stakes, strike rate, Teaforthree, time, Tongue, tongue tie, tracks, trading, trainer, Trends, trends analysis, trial, Venetia Williams, victory, Violet Dancer, weekend, win, winner, winners, wisdom, Won, worth, |Winners |Strike Rate

Nick Hardman Racing Tips

Posted on February 6, 2015 by kelly • 0 Comments

Today we have an ante-post pick for the Triumph Hurdle and the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, together with a trends analysis of the Betfair Hurdle on Saturday. We finish off with a look at the prospects of Donald McCain Jr’s runners at Newcastle this afternoon.

We are building up a portfolio of ante-post selections for the Cheltenham Festival on the Members Community Forum over at the Betting School Insiders Club and I can share our latest one with you today. Gordon Elliot has an interesting runner in the Gala Retail Spring Juvenile Hurdle on Sunday and an eye catching performance could see his price contract for the two Cheltenham festival races for which he has an entry.

The horse in question is Vercingetorix and he was trained last year on the flat by none other than Andre Fabre in France. He ran four times, twice in Listed events, but failed to win. He won a maiden hurdle as easy as you like on racecourse debut and could have any amount of improvement in him.

The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is an excellent trial for the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival. Unaccompanied won this race in 2011 before finishing second in the Triumph Hurdle, Hisaabaat did exactly the same in 2012, Our Conor won in 2012 and won the Triumph Hurdle a month later and last year Guitar Pete won this before finishing third in the 2014 Triumph Hurdle.

Vercingetorix has entries in the Supreme Novice and the Triumph Hurdle. I think he will go to the latter but I am happy to have a speculative £1 @33/1 for the Supreme in case he ends up running there instead.

JCB Triumph Hurdle – Vercingetorix @20/1

Supreme Novices' Hurdle – Vercingetorix @33/1

Newbury’s Betfair Hurdle on Saturday is a great race for trends analysis. Briefly the trends point towards a 5yo or 6yo (account for all of the last 8 winners) with a top 3 finish LTO (13 of the last 16 winners). 14 of the last 16 winners came from the top 7 in the betting market.

Horses tackling this on their seasonal reappearance are 1-20 and horses with more than 4 seasonal runs are 2-58. Horses that have raced over 2m 5f and further are 0-50 and are ones to swerve. Horses carrying 10st to 10st 9lbs have won 7 of the last 10 renewals but this year only 3 of the 24 runners are set to carry 10st 9lbs or less. Perhaps a better statistic is that all bar 2 of the last 16 winners carried 11st 2lbs or less.

All that leaves us with just the one qualifier and that is Evan Williams’ runner On Tour @16/1. Ticking plenty of boxes but outside the top 7 in the betting are Chieftan’s Choice @20/1, Violet Dancer @33/1, Ballybolley @25/1, Arzal @33/1 and Forced Family Fun @40/1. The former appeals most from an each-way perspective:

On Tour @16/1 (1/4 odds, 5 places)

Chieftan’s Choice @20/1 (1/4 odds, 5 places)

If trends are not your thing then the trainers with a good record in the race are Gary Moore, who won this back-to-back in 2007 and 2008 and Nicky Henderson who has saddled 5 winners since 1997. David Pipe runners have reached the frame in 4 of the last 5 renewals at prices of 15/2, 8/1, 10/1 and 14/1. Nicky Henderson runs Sign Of A Victory @12/1 off top-weight and I would not put anyone off backing him given his trainer’s record in the race.

Gary Moore runs Violet Dancer at a big price and David Pipe has two in the shape of Balgarry @16/1 and Swing Bowler @33/1. Balgarry must have a decent chance after a cracking run last time out on only his second start after a long absence. Swing Bowler has finished 5th (beaten just 4 lengths) and 3rd in the last two renewals and could give each-way backers a run for their money off a similar mark.

It’s a tough race to call especially given the strength of support for Paul Nicholls’ favourite Calipto who could be thrown in off 143 and Activial who looks closely matched with Nicholls’ runner. Add in the record of Nicky Henderson and the puzzle becomes even harder to crack.

All things considered, the trends have nailed us numerous winners over the course of this column so I will stick with On Tour, despite dropping back in trip. His trainer has said that he is worth a crack at this race and it will help that he will see out the trip better than most if they likely go hard up front. Chieftan’s Choice @20/1, Balgarry @16/1 and Swing Bowler @33/1 will complete my four against the field.

Donald McCain Jr’s last 11 runners at Newcastle have finished 13P31231113. The stable is in decent form and he has the following entries at the time of writing:

2.55pm Luccombe Down
3.25pm Lively Baron
4.00pm Whatdoesthefoxsay

Filed Under: Tips
... ..., 2lbs, 6yo, 9lbs, absence, account, afternoon, analysis, backers, backing, Betfair, Betfair Hurdle, betting, betting market, Betting School, Betting School Insiders, big price, boxes, case, chance, Cheltenham, Cheltenham Festival, Cheltenham Festival races, Chieftan’s Choice, Club, column, Community, course, crack, David, David Pipe, David Pipe runners, debut, decent chance, Donald McCain, Donald McCain Jr, each-way backers, entries, entry, events, eye, eye catching performance, family, favourite, festival, field, finish LTO, Flat, Forced Family Fun, form, France, fun, Gala Retail Spring, Gary, Gary Moore, good record, Gordon Elliot, Great, help, horse, horses, hurdle, Insiders Club, interesting runner, JCB Triumph Hurdle, lengths, Listed, Lively Baron, look, LTO, maiden, Maiden hurdle, mark, market, members, Members Community Forum, money, Moore, Newcastle, Nicky Henderson, odds, performance, perspective, places, plenty, point, portfolio, post, price, prices, prospects, qualifier, question, race, racecourse, racecourse debut, races, renewals, run, runner, runners, running, runs, Saturday, school, School Insiders Club, seasonal reappearance, selections, set, shape, share, Spring Juvenile Hurdle, start, statistic, Stick, Sunday, support, Supreme Novices, Swing Bowler, thing, things, time, times, tough race, TOUR, trainer, trainers, Trends, trends analysis, trial, trial for the, trip, Triumph Hurdle, victory, Violet Dancer, way, weight, win, winners, Won, worth, |Winners |Strike Rate

Nick Hardman Racing Tips

Posted on January 30, 2015 by Dave French • 0 Comments

It’s usually around this time each year that I start to take a look at the ante-post markets for the Cheltenham festival and I have a couple of interesting types who I will be backing now at value prices.

We will also take a look at some of the feature races over the weekend and we have a couple of interesting runners from today’s cards.

There is a lot to like about Value At Risk and his chances in the Albert Bartlett Novice’s Hurdle despite the fact he was beaten on Trials Day last weekend.

He made his racecourse debut when runner up to Very Wood in a bumper at Punchestowns when trained by Phillip Fenton.

He then went on to win his next two races before finishing 13th in the Cheltenham Festival Bumper.

This was followed with a fine 3rd at the Punchestowns Festival, beaten only by the Cheltenham bumper 1-2 in the shape of Silver Concorde and Shaneshill.

Value At Risk was then acquired by Harry Skelton and hacked up on his hurdles debut before going down narrowly to Ordo Ab Chao at the weekend.

He stayed on stoutly after being passed to suggest the step up to 3 miles will be right up his street.

This horse has bumper form that ties in with two Festival winners (Very Wood went on to win the 2014 Albert Bartlett) and that is enough to tempt me in at 12/1

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle 2015 – Value At Risk @12/1

The other horse to catch my eye at the weekend was David Pipe’s Un Temps Pour Tout who ran a blinder to finish just under 3 lengths behind tough-as-nails Reve De Sivola and the race-fit, yet classy, Saphir De Rheu.

You could argue that he was getting 2lbs from the winner and 6lbs from the runner up but you need to take into account it was his first run for 266 days and also his first crack at 3 miles.

He will strip fitter for his reappearance and there could be any amount of improvement to come over 3 miles. I think the 16/1 currently available will be a lot shorter on the day.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle 2015 – Un Temps Pour Tout @16/1

On to today and Garde Fou has a decent chance in the 3.30pm handicap hurdle at Chepstow.

A runner-up on his two previous starts, the form of his latest run has worked out well with the winner going in again at Newbury.

Garde Fou is dropping back in trip here but 2m 4f on heavy going around Chepstow will take plenty of getting and he has an each-way chance.

Rocky Elsom is a bit hit-and-miss but he won’t mind the mud flying around and he is another in with an each-way shout based on his win at Lingfield two starts back.

In the next race, Loughalder is an interesting runner down in class and down in trip. He is 3 from 4 over C&D and I am hoping this venue sparks a revival after a lackluster effort on his seasonal reappearance.

This is easier than the race he contested at Haydock but he is 9lbs above his last winning mark so it will be a speculative punt only for me.

Chepstow 3.30pm Garde Fou @15/2 & Rocky Elsom @12/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 4 places)

Chepstow 4.05pm Loughalder @6/1

I will be covering all of the big races at the weekend over at the Betting School Insiders Club on the Big Race Analysis thread on the Members Forum. Hopefully we can continue where we left off last week.

In the five races we covered we picked out winners at 10/1 and 9/2 to go with two runners-up at 6/1 and 10/3 and a third placed finisher advised at 12/1 each-way.

One of the races we will be covering is the West Wales National at Ffos Las on Saturday.

I put up Global Power as 1 of the 2 selections for the Welsh National at Chepstow but he was not declared at the 48 hour declaration stage.

He has an entry for Saturday and I am hopeful of a decent run. He has some form over staying trips including a 4th placed finish in 2013 Midlands National, a win in the Cumberland Handicap Chase over 3m 2f on heavy ground in 2013 and a 2nd place finish in the same race 12 months later.

Two starts back he was beaten a neck by Theatrical Star who has since run a fine second to Hawke’s Point in a Grade 3 at Warwick.

When it comes to training thorough stayers, Venetia Williams has few peers. She has three entered at the time of writing and the one I like is Royal Palladium who fell last time out attempting run up a four-timer in a race won by Firebird Flyer.

Royal Palladium was leading when he fell three from home and he meets Firebird Flyer on much better terms this time around.

He has a nice racing weight of 10st 8lbs and that might count for a lot when you consider the first three home last year carried 10st 5lbs, 10st and 10st 1lb.

Saturday January 31st

Ffos Las 2.40pm Royal Palladium (e/w) & Global Power (e/w)

All the best

Nick Hardman

http://bettinginsiders.com

Filed Under: Systems
... ..., 13th, 2lbs, 5lbs, 6lbs, 8lbs, 9lbs, account, Albert Bartlett, Albert Bartlett Novice, analysis, ante post markets, backing, Bartlett Novices Hurdle, best Nick Hardman, better terms, betting, Betting School, Betting School Insiders, big race, Big Race Analysis, big races, bit, blinder, bumper form, C&D, cards, catch, chance, chances, Cheltenham, Cheltenham bumper, Cheltenham Festival, Cheltenham Festival Bumper, Chepstow, Class, Club, couple, crack, Cumberland Handicap Chase, David, David Pipe, debut, decent chance, decent run, declaration stage, e/w, each-way chance, each-way shout, entry, eye, fact, feature, feature races, festival, Festival winners, Ffos Las, finisher, Firebird Flyer, Fit, fitter, form, four-timer, Garde Fou, Global Power, GOING, grade, ground, handicap chase, Handicap Hurdle, Harry Skelton, Hawke’s Point, Haydock, heavy, heavy going, heavy ground, home, Hopefully, horse, http://bettinginsiders.com, hurdle, hurdles, hurdles debut, Insiders Club, interesting runner, interesting runners, interesting types, lackluster effort, Ladbrokes, Ladbrokes World Hurdle, latest run, lengths, Lingfield, look, Loughalder, mark, markets, members, Members Forum, Midlands National, miles, mind, miss, neck, need, Newbury, nice racing weight, Nick, Nick Hardman, odds, Ordo Ab Chao, peers, Phillip Fenton, place, place finish, places, plenty, point, post, Power, previous starts, prices, Punchestowns Festival, Punt, race, race analysis, race-fit, racecourse, racecourse debut, races, racing, right, risk, Rocky Elsom, Royal Palladium, run, runner, runner-up, runners, runners-up, Saphir De Rheu, Saturday, school, School Insiders Club, seasonal reappearance, selections, Shaneshill, shape, Silver, Silver Concorde, Sivola, speculative punt, stage, Star, start, starts, Step, street, Temps Pour Tout, terms, Theatrical Star, thorough stayers, ties, time, tough-as-nails Reve, Trials, trip, trips, types, value, Value At Risk, value prices, Venetia Williams, Warwick, way, weekend, weight, Welsh National, West, West Wales National, win, winner, winners, winning mark, Won, Wood, world, World Hurdle, |Winners |Strike Rate

Nick Hardman Free Tips

Posted on January 23, 2015 by Dave French • 0 Comments

A bright Friday morning brings with it the joy of six tips from the excellent Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club…

We have some decent racing today with the meetings at Doncaster and Huntingdon standing out by some way. I have gone through the cards and picked out some horses with strong chances as well as picking out a couple of bigger priced each-way runners.

John Ferguson is 4-11 with his hurdlers at Doncaster in non-handicap races in the last 3 years for a level stakes profit of £9.29. He runs Buckwheat in the novice hurdle race at 1.05pm and champ AP McCoy is booked to ride.

Nicky Henderson’s Days Of Heaven rates a big danger after showing much improved form in a first time hood when scoring at Ludlow (hood fitted again here). With that in mind there are options for the forecast with these two likely to be a lot better than the rest.

Steel Summit’s winning sequence must come to an end at some point but the manner of his latest victory and the fact he is 10lbs well-in at the weights make him one of the strongest bets on the card in the 2.50pm.

Nicky Henderson has a good chance of taking the final race on the Doncaster card with Clondaw Banker in the maiden hurdle. His second behind Jolly’s Cracked it at Ascot back in November is smart form and he ran that same rival to within a length next time out. A reproduction of either of those efforts should be enough to win this.

It’s not often a horse with form figures 8696 would interest me but you should always put those figures into the context of the race the horse is running in.

In this case the race is a novice handicap hurdle and a quick look at the rest of the runners reveal they too have form figures that look like the numbers round from Countdown.

The horse in question is Haleo and he runs in the 1.40pm today at Doncaster.

What drew my eye to him originally is that he is rated 97 in a race where the top rated horses are rated 99.

However, he gets a hefty 13lbs weight-for-age allowance from those two horses.

He ran well for a long way on his last start before fading two from home to finish 6th, beaten 10 lengths in total. He is the 20/1 outsider of the field here but I think that allowance will see him finish closer than market expectations.

Over at Huntingdon we have a similar scenario in the 4.05pm handicap hurdle that closes the card. Cyclop is joint-top rated with Harry Hunt on an official rating of 120.

However, the 4yo Cyclop gets 11lbs from his 8yo rival. Also in his favour is the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies and he also has a C&D win to his name. Up 6lbs for that latest win he might still have a bit of improvement in him.

The best race on the Huntingdon card is the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Qualifier and top rated Aubusson is sure to prove popular dropping back into a handicap.

His latest effort saw him finish 3rd in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle. Prior to that, he won the Grade 3 Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock to earn his current rating of 153.

He has to give 11lbs away here although Lizzie Kelly’s claim will off-set 7lbs of that.

However, this is a hot race with David Pipe’s Knight Of Noir also holding strong claims along with Dolatulo and Zeroshadesofgrey.

But the one really interesting runner is Ely Brown. He defied an absence of 198 days to win a Pertemps Qualifier at Ascot in 2012 off a mark of 125 and went on to finish 6th in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham festival.

He defied an absence of 206 days to win the same Qualifier again in 2013 off a mark of 135 before being sent novice chasing where he won a Grade 2 on his second start.

He has not been seen in almost a year but it is interesting he goes back over hurdles and is racing here off a mark of 139.

Charlie Deutsch takes off 5lbs so that puts Ely Brown 1lb below his last winning hurdles mark.

He has won first time out in the last 2 seasons. This would be some training feat were he to take this and it will be interesting to see how he goes.

The negatives are that he is returning from injury (as opposed to a seasonal break) and word is he is being aimed at a tilt at the Grand National so this may just be a pipe-opener.

That said you often see Grand National horses running at the Cheltenham festival in the Pertemps Final.

My interest is perked just enough to have a little each-way @12/1.

Doncaster 1.05pm Buckwheat
Doncaster 1.40pm Haleo @20/1 (e/w)
Doncaster 2.50pm Steel Summit @6/4
Doncaster 3.50pm Clondaw Banker
Huntingdon 3.05pm Ely Brown @12/1 (e/w)
Huntingdon 4.05pm Cyclop @9/2

Filed Under: Tips
*Figures, ... ..., 10lbs, 11lbs, 5lbs, 6lbs, 7lbs, 8yo, absence, age, age allowance, AP McCoy, Ascot, best race, bets, betting, Betting School, Betting School Insiders, big danger, bit, C&D, card, cards, case, chance, chances, Cheltenham, Cheltenham Festival, claim, Club, couple, Danger, David, Dolatulo, Doncaster, Doncaster card, e/w, end, excellent Nick Hardman, eye, fact, Favour, feat, festival, field, Final, Fixed Brush Hurdle, form, form figures, Friday, good chance, grade, Grand National, Grand National horses, Handicap Hurdle, handicap races, Haydock, home, horse, horses, hurdle, Hurdlers, hurdles, improved form, Insiders Club, interesting runner, latest win, lengths, level stakes, level stakes profit, Long Walk Hurdle, long way, look, Ludlow, maiden, Maiden hurdle, mark, market, market expectations, meetings, mind, morning, negatives, Nick, Nick Hardman, Nicky Henderson, novice handicap, Novice hurdle, numbers, official rating, point, profit, qualifier, question, quick look, race, races, racing, rating, rest, rival, runner, runners, running, runs, SAW, scenario, school, School Insiders Club, Scoring, seasonal break, seasons, set, stakes, start, strong claims, tilt, time, tips, Twiston-Davies, victory, way, weight, weights, win, Won, word, |Winners |Strike Rate

Tag Archives: school

Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Nick Hardman Racing Tips

Nick Hardman Racing Tips

Nick Hardman Free Tips