Tag Archives: Silver

Drifters – Good or Bad

Today's pearl of wisdom has been inspired by a bet on the Racing Consultants (http://racingconsultants.co.uk) tipping service last week.

This bet has been the talk of the office because we got so many emails and opinions in about it.

Basically last Thursday David Massey posted up four bets

Today

7.15 Kempton – 1pt win Taaresh (8-1 Bet Victor, Paddy Power, W Hill and others)

7.45 Kempton – 1pt e/w Tevez (9-1 Skybet, Stan James, Coral)

2.15 Wincanton – 1.5pts win Silver Commander (at 6.6 and above Betfair)

2.15 Wincanton – 2pts lay Silver Commander at 2.76 in running.

4.5pts staked

The one that caused the fuss was Taaresh, this is what David wrote as his reasons for making the selection.

An angle we like to use on a regular basis is a horse that's improved or refound it's form over jumps that then reverts to the Flat with a mark that looks on the low side, and Kevin Morgan's evergreen TAARESH fits that bill nicely here. Winner of a competitive 0-120 at Worcester that's worked out quite well, he followed that up with a win off 7lb higher and in better class at Wincanton, a sign that he's clearly in good heart at the moment. Upped in class again for his latest start at Musselburgh, he was far from disgraced in finishing fifth, just getting outpaced in the last quarter of a mile. Back on the Flat and in a low grade handicap, he looks well treated off just 70 here and as a C&D winner for Joe Fanning in the past, has no issue with the conditions either. A slight worry we have is the lack of pace in the race, but that is only a minor one, as he does travel well in his races and isn't short of pace should it turn into a burn up in the straight.

You'll note that the price available at the time the bet was posted was 8/1.

By race time he opened up at 16/1 and drifted out to 25/1!

So the question is, if you hadn't already had your bet placed and a top service tipped you a horse at 8/1 that was now 16/1 and drifting to 20's then 25's would you have bet it?

And would you still have your full stake on it?

Or would you assume that it had no chance because of the price and not bet only to watch it win.

So many people will not bet a horse that drifts because they see it as a negative sign.

Gamblers who make money from their betting would see it as a good sign that they are getting extra value!

My advice is if there is sound reasoning as to why a horse should be a selection then your only concern with the price is that you get the best price that you can.

As I've used Racing Consultants as an example I should mention that the service has now been live for 6 month and every month has been a profitable month with a total profit of £1784.50 to £10 stakes. Which is pretty good for a service that costs just £30 per month. http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

4.10 Kempton Zman Awal – win bet 2/1 Paddy Power

Football and Racing Tips

When Saturday comes it's time for football and big races.

Today we have Nick's selections for the Ayr Silver and Gold cups still to run. (See yesterdays post)

We have our weekly taste of Hawkeye, below.

And we have our football bet from The Alternative Punters Syndicate.

First off don't forget to enter your scores in the free Sky Super 6 competition to win yourself a quarter million pounds ££ – http://dailypunt.com/super6

Football Selections

You can get a free trial of this racing and football tipping service which has been winning since 1996 here – http://dailypunt.com/taps

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)

ARSENAL
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WilliamHill

Over to Peter Hawkeye

Keith Dalgleish managed to win with Beautiful Stranger yesterday at Ayr after running the previous day at the same venue. Today he runs Shrewd in the 5.35 Ayr, who ran yesterday at the same venue. Could it be deja vu today for the trainer? Shrewd is 16’1

Ayr Gold Cup Selections

Today we have our weekly big race insights from Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

It doesn’t come much harder than a 27 runner 6f handicap.

So how about three 27 runner handicaps in the space of two days?

I probably wouldn’t be doing my job if I were to turn down the opportunity to try and decipher the Ayr Bronze, Silver and Gold Cups – three of the toughest handicaps in the flat racing calendar.

The draw could play a huge role in the outcome of all three races and we will have a much better idea of draw bias by Saturday but for now we will start with the Bronze Cup on Friday.

The Bronze Cup was first run in 2009 so we have no real trends to go on and I will look to two trainers who do particularly well with their sprint handicappers at this meeting.

First up is Richard Fahey and he saddles Gatepost and Polski Max. The former is hard to win with but I like the fact he is running well and is as equally effective over 7f as he is over 6f.

If they go hell for leather then stamina as well as speed could come into play and Gatepost may well be there at the finish passing beaten horses.

Polski Max is very well handicapped and was once rated as high as 97 back in May last year. He races here off 79 and looked to be returning to form with a close up ¾ length 4th at Ripon last time out.

Dandy Nicholls is the “sprint king” and he has Bajan Bear, Fitz Flyer, Galvanize and Layla’s Hero in the line-up.

Bajan Bear is the choice of stable jockey Adrian Nicholls and will go close if bouncing back from a rare poor effort last time.

Layla’s Hero is admirably consistent and is 3lb well in under a penalty. He has not finished outside the three in his last 5 outings. These two are probably the pick of his quartet although it would be no great shock were any one of his runners to win this.

At the prices I will plump for the Fahey pair:

Ayr Bronze Cup 2.40pm – Gatespost @16/1 e/w & Polski Max @12/1 e/w (5 places)

Telmeyd is a worthy favourite in the Silver Cup on Saturday but at a best priced 7/1 I feel obliged to take him on.

Bogart for Kevin Ryan should go close if maintaining his current upward curve.

That is a big “if” but at 14/1 I am happy to back him each-way.

A winner of the 2yo Trophy at Redcar in 2011, he was once rated as high as 110 as a 3yo. He last won off a mark of 97 in August 2013 and put in his best effort since then when second to smart prospect Muthmir in the Portland last week.

He races off the same mark here (93) and a reproduction of that effort should see him go close from his (potentially) nice draw in stall 25.

If you ran this race 20 times you would probably get 20 different winners so I will stick with Bogart as my sole selection:

Ayr Silver Cup Saturday 2.40pm – Bogart @14/1 (e/w, 5 places)

Kevin Ryan has won the Ayr Gold Cup 3 times in the last 7 years, including back to back wins in 2011 and 2012. He runs York Glory, Blaine, Hamza and 2012 winner Captain Ramius.

Of the quartet it is the talented, but quirky, Blaine who makes most appeal. He has rediscovered his form this season with 2 wins in-between unseating his rider and finishing almost plumb last in the Steward’s Cup.

Kevin Ryan was quoted as saying he is in great form and will love the predicted fast ground.

The trends point towards a horse aged 4yo to 5yo, rated between 97 – 100, had at least 6 runs in the season and who has form over further than 6f.

One who ticks quite a few of those boxes is Go Far who was an unlucky 6th in the Portland and was doing his best work at the end. I will take these two against the field:

Ayr Gold Cup Saturday 3.50pm – Blaine @16/1 and Go Far @25/1 (e/w, 5 places)

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