Tag Archives: small loss

Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Today we have my favourite column of the week, the Nick Hardman – Betting Insiders column.

Before I hand you over to Nick just to mention that there is a qualifier from the Tongue Tie system, which we are paper trading currently and that's 16:15 Sandown Paddy The Stout.

If you enjoy Nick's columns as much as I do then do check out the Betting School Insiders Club where you can enjoy more of his wisdom.

Here's Nick…

We have jumps racing at Fakenham and Sandown today and Nicky Henderson’s runners might be worth a second look in the betting markets given his record at both tracks.

Since January 2011 he has sent 30 runners to Fakenham and 13 have won. However, backing each of those runners to level stakes would have resulted in a very small loss at SP.

Dig a little deeper and we find that his Fakenham runners are 1-6 in chases, 8-19 in hurdles races and 4-5 in bumper races.

Taking a closer look at the hurdlers we find they are 5-10 in novice races, 2-5 in maiden races and 1-4 in handicaps.

He has the following entries at the time of writing:

1.45 Medieval Chapel (Beginners’ Chase)
3.25pm Clean Sheet (Novices’ Hurdle)
4.35pm Clemency (Mares’ NH Flat Race)

At Sandown, Nicky Henderson has had 35 winners from 145 runners in the last 5 years at a strike rate of 24% and shows a level stakes profit of £36.07.

His hurdlers are 26-95 (27% strike rate) and show a profit of £47.72.

He has won with 8 of his last 18 hurdlers at the course for a profit of £27.69.

The Barry Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson partnership has teamed up for 17 hurdle winners at Sandown from 42 runners at an impressive strike rate of 41% and a level stakes profit of £41.12.

Nicky Henderson has the following entries at Sandown today:

2.30pm Broxbourne (Geraghty) & Hel Tara (Mares’ Novice Hurdle)

One of the feature races of the weekend is the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Last Friday our trends analysis identified Violet Dancer as a likely candidate for the Betfair Hurdle and I am hoping for more of the same this weekend.

The key trends are a win over 3m or further, aged 9yo – 11yo, not raced in the last 31 days, raced over 3m 5f or further, a top two finish LTO and trained by Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell or Venetia Williams.

In addition, only 3 winners since 1997 have carried more than 11st to victory on soft or heavy going.

There is one horse who ticks all the trends boxes apart from the trainer box and that is Harry The Viking.

He has not won since his novice days from where he went on to finish runner-up to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.

That run earned him a rating of 143 and he competed in the Scottish National, The Hennessy and the Grand National after that.

However, he failed to build on that early promise and his mark plummeted to 122.

Off that mark he ran his best race in a long time when runner-up to Lie Forrit last time out when 2lbs out of the handicap. He has been raised just 2lbs for that effort.

Haydock Grand National Trial – Harry The Viking @20/1 (e/w)

At that price he would be the biggest winner since Rambling Minster @18/1 in 2009 but Rigadin De Beauchene won this @16/1 last year and 8 of the last 12 winners returned SPs of 10/1 or higher.

Odds On National Hunt Jockeys

Our odds on All Weather jockeys that we posted last week are nicely in profit, with the trainers showing a small loss, of less than one point.

Early days yet for those and time will tell if they do as well as the flat odds on jockeys and trainers.

Today carrying on the theme I have an Odds On National Hunt Jockeys system for you.

The rules for these are to follow them only during the main National Hunt season from October to March and to back them when their ride starts at 6/4 or shorter.

The results for 2014, which will be the end of one season and the beginning of the current season were as follows…

Runs = 330
Wins = 199
Strike Rate = 60%
Profit at industry SP =42.29
Return on Investment = 12.82%

The jockeys to follow are…

Jockey Data
Jockey
Byrne, Michael Cooper, Bryan J
Hutchinson, Wayne Johnson, Richard
Maguire, Jason Moloney, Paul
Mullins, Mr P W ORegan, Denis
Renwick, Wilson Reveley, James
Scholfield, Nick Skelton, Harry
Walsh, M P Whelan, Trevor

 

Today's Selection

4:20 Exeter Nitrogen – win bet – 11/10 Bet Victor, Bet365

Big Priced Winners System

So I had nothing planned for today's post and was a bit stuck as to what I would write about.

Then I saw an email yesterday from Betting School Insiders ranting about how you have to have a collection of micro systems to be profitable, and I agree with that.

Also at Betting School they're are always talking about how systems must be based on real world ideas not just a trawl through data to find something that worked in the past, and I agree with that to.

(If you're not a Betting School Insiders member and you are serious about winning you really should join)

What I do when I have one of these ideas based on something real is I try and research it, you cant always, then if possible I set it up as a system in HorseRaceBase and see how it works live.

So this morning I've gone through my live system trials and pulled out a micro system to share.

I called it the Big Priced Winners System.

But that's not because it finds big priced winners, it's because it follows horses that won well last time at a big price.

The idea being that these horses are ahead of where the public, bettors, bookmakers think they should be and maybe will win again.

So I started by looking at horses that won last time at odds of over 25/1 and then looked to see what type of race looked most interesting. IE Flat, AW or NH.

Betting these horses when they run on the Flat turf makes a small loss at industry SP, I would guess that they might break even at Betfair SP.

I then looked at where they raced last time, and in the last 10 years only 13 horses had won at big odds on the National Hunt and then run next time on the flat, they all lost.

Finally, I wanted horses that had won well, so I looked at the distance they won by.

The profit seems to come at 3 lengths or more, so that is what I went with.

The good news is that this system has made a 33% Return on Investment over the last 10 years and that it has been profitable since I created it in May 2013.

The bad news is that there are only about 10 bets per year 🙁

So if you have any ideas how we can up the bets with this system and keep the profit then suggest them in the comments 🙂

Big Priced Winners System

Click to Enlarge

Today's Selection

Worcester 4.20 Man of Steel – win bet – 13/8 Bet Victor

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