So I had nothing planned for today's post and was a bit stuck as to what I would write about.
Then I saw an email yesterday from Betting School Insiders ranting about how you have to have a collection of micro systems to be profitable, and I agree with that.
Also at Betting School they're are always talking about how systems must be based on real world ideas not just a trawl through data to find something that worked in the past, and I agree with that to.
(If you're not a Betting School Insiders member and you are serious about winning you really should join)
Get All of John's Selections
When you Trial his Victor Value service
Just £7 for 14 Days
Click Here for Immediate Access
What I do when I have one of these ideas based on something real is I try and research it, you cant always, then if possible I set it up as a system in HorseRaceBase and see how it works live.
So this morning I've gone through my live system trials and pulled out a micro system to share.
I called it the Big Priced Winners System.
But that's not because it finds big priced winners, it's because it follows horses that won well last time at a big price.
The idea being that these horses are ahead of where the public, bettors, bookmakers think they should be and maybe will win again.
So I started by looking at horses that won last time at odds of over 25/1 and then looked to see what type of race looked most interesting. IE Flat, AW or NH.
Betting these horses when they run on the Flat turf makes a small loss at industry SP, I would guess that they might break even at Betfair SP.
I then looked at where they raced last time, and in the last 10 years only 13 horses had won at big odds on the National Hunt and then run next time on the flat, they all lost.
Finally, I wanted horses that had won well, so I looked at the distance they won by.
The profit seems to come at 3 lengths or more, so that is what I went with.
The good news is that this system has made a 33% Return on Investment over the last 10 years and that it has been profitable since I created it in May 2013.
The bad news is that there are only about 10 bets per year 🙁
So if you have any ideas how we can up the bets with this system and keep the profit then suggest them in the comments 🙂
Worcester 4.20 Man of Steel – win bet – 13/8 Bet Victor
I have found in the past that horses repeat under similar conditions. By adjusting LR track=Flat, month=May,June,July and August. Odds between Evs and 12/1 and aged 2 too 8 year-old
Keeping won last time out at odds between 25/1 and 100/1 but altering distance won by to between 1 length and 15 lengths …. produces two losing years since 2003, those years lost 4.25 and 2 units. Overall, 322 bets, 68 winners (21.12% SR) and 132.62 units profit. £0 bets a year on average but only over 4 months.