You'll remember that last week I mentioned the Geegeez article that talked about the use of tongue ties and how a horse needs a few runs with a tongue tie before they will let them self go.
The theory being that the horse still thinks that it's tongue will get in the way and is worried it won't be able to breathe and so doesnt give all.
But after a few runs with a tongue tie it starts to realise that it doenst have tongue problems anymore.
So I've been doing some research.
First off some facts. All horses wearing a tongue tie for the first time in 2013 & 2014 produces the following big losses.
Runs = 3959
Wins = 319
Strike Rate = 8.06%
Loss at iSP = -1335.24
ROI = – 33.73%
So it seems that wearing a tongue tie for the first time is a negative factor and the losing ROI is such that maybe it has the makings of a lay system.
Then it occurred to me that the reason that the horse doesnt perform well first time out with the tie is because it is still worried about a previous experience with breathing and doesn't realise it will be ok with the tie.
But surely there are some trainers that use the tie at home and get the horse used to it and trusting it before they ever go racing with the tie on and that maybe there are trainers that win first time-out with a tongue tie.
So I had a search for trainers who are profitable with first time tongue tie wearers.
And I found some.
For example Rebecca Curtis had 22 starts over the two year period that ran with a tongue tie for the first time.
Seven of those won for a 32% strike rate and they made an industry SP profit of 5.86 which is a 27% ROI.
Charlie Longsdon had 32 starts and 8 wins and an industry SP profit of 20.3. Which is a strike rate of 25% and an ROI of 63%.
I've selected the best performers from 2013/14 and checked their 2015 performance and a good profit has been made so I'm going to run this as a system live for a while and see if we have something worth following long term.
2.30 Wolverhampton Kalimantan – win bet – 11/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power