Tag Archives: SP Profit

Tongue Tie Research

You'll remember that last week I mentioned the Geegeez article that talked about the use of tongue ties and how a horse needs a few runs with a tongue tie before they will let them self go.

The theory being that the horse still thinks that it's tongue will get in the way and is worried it won't be able to breathe and so doesnt give all.

But after a few runs with a tongue tie it starts to realise that it doenst have tongue problems anymore.

So I've been doing some research.

First off some facts. All horses wearing a tongue tie for the first time in 2013 & 2014 produces the following big losses.

Runs = 3959
Wins = 319
Strike Rate = 8.06%
Loss at iSP = -1335.24
ROI = – 33.73%

So it seems that wearing a tongue tie for the first time is a negative factor and the losing ROI is such that maybe it has the makings of a lay system.

Then it occurred to me that the reason that the horse doesnt perform well first time out with the tie is because it is still worried about a previous experience with breathing and doesn't realise it will be ok with the tie.

But surely there are some trainers that use the tie at home and get the horse used to it and trusting it before they ever go racing with the tie on and that maybe there are trainers that win first time-out with a tongue tie.

So I had a search for trainers who are profitable with first time tongue tie wearers.

And I found some.

For example Rebecca Curtis had 22 starts over the two year period that ran with a tongue tie for the first time.

Seven of those won for a 32% strike rate and they made an industry SP profit of 5.86 which is a 27% ROI.

Charlie Longsdon had 32 starts and 8 wins and an industry SP profit of 20.3. Which is a strike rate of 25% and an ROI of 63%.

I've selected the best performers from 2013/14 and checked their 2015 performance and a good profit has been made so I'm going to run this as a system live for a while and see if we have something worth following long term.

Today's Selection

2.30 Wolverhampton Kalimantan – win bet – 11/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power

Big Priced Yankee

We're running a bit late with today's message and that's because one of the best tipsters online has some free tips to give away but I'm not allowed to tell you before 12:00.

If you haven't heard of Nicky Doyle he's a hot shot Irish tipster who tips for the big races both sides of the water.

He tops the tipster proofing tables at Race Advisor with Betfair SP profit of 123 points and 177 points profit at advised prices.

Nicky is getting ready for Cheltenham and would like to give you his selections for a big priced Cheltenham Yankee.

To get these selections as well as free tips for the Saturday big race every week.

And these free Saturday tips have proven to be highly profitable with 150 points made in 2014.

To get these free goodies just Click Here and register your email address.

Today's Selection

13:50 Towcester Dusky Legend – win bet – 11/8 Boylesports

Hamilton Tips & Trends

There's racing at Hamilton today so this is a good day to look back at the Hamilton angles we have researched previously.

Back on June 11th we wrote about the profit that could be made by betting stall 1 at Hamilton when the starting stalls are positioned on a bend.

This only happens on races of 1 mile 1 furlong.

Since that article was published there have been 9 stall 1 runners over 1m1f at Hamilton.

They have produced 4 winners at 3/1, 6/1, 7/4 and 13/8.

So that's a handy iSP profit of 7.37 points a nifty 82% ROI.

There's only 1 race over 1m1f today and the stall 1 runner is…

4.10 Hamilton Neuf Des Coeurs – 11/2 Bet Victor

On July 18th Nick Hardman wrote about a simple but profitable trainer trend at Hamilton.

The stats for Keith Dalgleish when he runs in a non handicap race at Hamilton show a 21% strike rate and a 46% ROI.

There is only one Non Handicap race at Hamilton today and Keith Dalgleish has a runner…

3.10 Live Dangerously – 11/1 Bet Victor

Gordon Elliott Perth Selections

Today a reminder of the recent article by Mark Foley of Betting School Insiders.

You no doubt recall that Mark highlighted that Gordon Elliott does very well with the horses he ferries over to Perth and that so far this year if you just backed all of the Elliott horses that run at Perth you would have made a tidy SP profit.

The 2014 stats for all Gordon Elliott, Perth starts are as follows…

Runs = 38
Wins = 15
Strike rate = 39
Profit at industry SP = 25.2
Return on Investment = 66.32%

Today Elliott has 7 runners, two in the 15:00, they all have chances and are all trading towards the head of their markets.

Hopefully we'll have a good day…

14:25:00 Perth 1 Pumped Up Kicks (IRE) – 9/4 Bet Victor
15:00:00 Perth 3 Formal Bid (IRE) – 3/1 Sky Bet
15:00:00 Perth 6 Moss Street – 7/4 Sky Bet
16:10:00 Perth 2 Crown Theatre (IRE) – 5/2 Bet Victor
16:45:00 Perth 1 High Expectations (FR) – 10/3 Bet Victor
17:15:00 Perth 2 Raajih – 11/2 Sky Bet
17:45:00 Perth 2 Tico (IRE) 9/4 Will Hill

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