Tag Archives: SR

Green Up: How To Calculate Your Stakes

The first thing to say is that when this article was first written there was no cash out button on Betfair, so life is easier if you just want to lock in a profit and green up on a horse you've bet, no calculator required.

But you should know the maths and how to calculate your own stakes and that's what we cover on this page.

Yesterday Pete asked how do we calculate our stakes when we have made a trade and we want to green up.

So Pete has backed a horse that is shortening in price and he wants to green up on that selection. IE lock in a profit whatever the outcome.

If for example you were lucky or smart enough to get on Shaws Diamond yesterday morning you could have bet it at around 16.0.

This mare started with a Betfair SP of 6.64. (Easier to find these green up opportunities in hindsight!!)

So let's say you had a back bet for £10 at 16.0 in the morning and it's just before the off and your horse is now trading at 6.8.

You want to lock in a profit on Shaw's Diamond and want to know what stake to lay at 6.8.

The calculation is to multiply your initial stake times your initial back odds (£10 x 16.0 = £160)

You then divide that by the lay price that you can get (£160/6.8 = £23.52)

Place your lay of £23.52 at 6.8 and your initial bet of £10 has now converted to a guaranteed payout of £12.84.

I mentioned a while back that a lot of serious backers don't wait for a selection to win these days.

Instead they lock in a profit once their horse trades down to a certain level and then lock in the profit.

This method is great for predetermined trades or for when you have time to calculate the stake.

When the pressure is on you might prefer to use software that can make the bet in the click of a button 🙂

If you want to it the other way around. So say you have one that's drifting and you lay a tenner at 6.8 and now can back it at 16.0.

Multiply your lay price by your lay stake (£10 x 6.8 = £68) and then divide that by your new odds (£68/16.0 = £4.25).

Back your selection for £4.25 at 16.0 and lock in a £5.46 profit.

A final note: It's easier to find steamers just listen to the pundits and check out free tipsters. Also you risk less money in the initial bet and get a better profit on the green up.

(Green Up: Common parlance for a guaranteed profit on Betfair where every selection shows it will profit if that selection win)

Understanding Greyhound Racing Form

Understanding Greyhound Racing Form

I've been promising for a while now that I will teach some winning greyhound strategies so today I'm going to explain how the form is recorded for the dogs. I'll then go on to share a strategy that I have used for years whenever I bet the dogs.

This is going to run over a number of days and I might spread it out a bit so as to not bore those readers not interested in the dogs, but we'll see how it goes.

So below you will see a screenshot of some greyhound racing form and below that a list of what the various items mean.

Greyhound racing form

Greyhound racing form – Click to Enlarge

[1] Starting with the easy, this is the trap that the dog will run from

[2] The dogs name & (W) indicates that this dog is a wide runner and consequently it will be allocated one of the outside traps each time it runs. You may also see (M) which indicates a middle runner and this dog will be allocated a middle trap.

[3] The best recent (Calculated) time that the greyhound has achieved along with details of the grade and the date. In this case the best time came in a trial, a trial is a qualifying race which helps the racing manager to know how to grade the dog IE what is it's ability what race should he put it in. Trials will usually have less than 6 runners, 3 in this case, and there is no betting on trials.

[4] The name of the trainer.

[5] This is the Racing Post rating for the dog. It is time based and personally I don’t pay much attention to it.

[6] A description of the animal in this case a F b which is a fawn bitch (female) a male will be indicated with a d for dog. This is followed by the name of the dogs sire (father), dam (mother) and the date whelped (Date of Birth).

[7] Date last in season. Bitches only!

[8] This is the Racing Post's tipsters comment, often vague and and can sway your judgement.

Now we get to the past form for the dog in question. Each line represents one race with the top line being the most recent.

[9] The date of the race.

[10] The track where the race was run.

[11] The distance of the race in metres.

[12] The trap number that the dog ran from on that occasion.

[13] The sectional or split time. This is the time from the traps to the winning line the first time the dog passes the line. This is useful to hep you understand the pace of the dog and whether it is likely to lead early.

[14] Position in race at the start (IE out of the traps), quarter (In a 4 bend race this will be between the 1st & 2nd bends), half and three quarter stages.

[15] Finishing position.

[16] The distance beaten by or if the winner the distance won by.

[17] The name of the winner or the second if this dog was the winner.

[18] The Racing Manager's in running comments for that run

[19] The time that the winner took to complete the race.

[20] The allowance made for the going. N = normal otherwise plus or minus in hundredths of a second EG – 40 means that the time was adjusted down by 40 hundredths of a second.

[21] The starting price of the dog.

[22] The grade of the race.

[23] The calculated time for this dog. This will be calculated from the distance the dog finished behind the winner and adjusted for the going allowance.

Now that we understand the information (form) that we have available next time we can look at how we can use that information.

Now we know how to read the card check out these posts that deal with finding a winner.

Who is the fastest to the first bend

Greyhound racing videos 

Baulking

Is it fast enough

Image courtesy of Saris0000 under Creative Commons 2.0

National Hunt Trainer Facts

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = – 7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Willie Mullins Irish Course Run 2013 - 14 table

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

 

 

Jumping Propects 2015

Jumping ProspectsToday I'm looking at a book called Jumping Prospects that has been recommended to me.

It is written by racing stalwart John Morris.

The book is priced at £15 and was published late September and is aimed at those who like to follow trainers and also spot a few big priced winners that are under the radar.

There is comprehensive coverage of 21 Trainers along with comments on 475 of the horses in their care.

There are also ‘stable eyecatchers’ at the end of each interview to help you focus on those the author really likes.

Last year’s edition produced 242 winners and included winners at 40/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 20/1.

This is the 23rd edition of the book and clearly offers something that is worthwhile to many.

Here's the edited highlights of the Amazon blurb…

21 Stable Interviews with various jumps trainers including: Kim Bailey, Ali Stronge, rebecca Curtis, James Ewart, Harry Fry, Warren Greatrex, Anthony Honeyball, Nicky Henderson, Alan King, Emma Lavelle, Charlie Longsdon, Donald McCain, Paul Nicholls, Dr Richard Newland, Ben Pauling, Oliver Sherwood, Dan Skelton, Jamie Snowden, Tom Symonds, Colin Tizzard, Robert Walford.

John says: “Once again I have visited some of the major jumping stables along with other horses that might slip under the radar. The energy you pick up from my stable tour will fuel your betting tank for a long, long time!”

The Jumping Prospects book is guaranteed to uncover many winners during the autumn and winter jumps season.

When you purchase your copy of Jumping Prospects it will pay for YOUR outlay many times over, as it has the answers to future winners likely to appear during the jumps campaign.

You can obtain a copy by visiting http://www.dailypunt.com/jumpingprospects 

Today's Selection

9.10 Kempton Fiftyshadesofgrey – eachway bet – 11/2 Bet 365

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close