Tag Archives: Stan

Football and Racing Tips

Today we have a football perm from The Alternative Punters Syndicate.

This week I’ve picked the away perm.

I am allowed to pick one of their bets each week to give away here and frankly I’ve picked the wrong one for the last couple of weeks.

Hopefully this week I’ve picked a winner.

This bet returns £58 for £1 stakes.

TAPS run a daily racing and sports tipping service and you can try it for a full month for free here http://dailypunt.com/taps

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways’
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)
CHELSEA
LIVERPOOL
MAN UTD
DUNDEE UTD
HEARTS
The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways’ are available with…
Stan James
Racing Selections

There’s four bets today from the First Time Headgear system. So far there have only been two selections and one win…

13:15 Newbury Bouvreuil (FR) 9/2 Paddy Power
14:25 Newbury Unioniste (FR) 4/1 Bet 365
15:35 Newbury Calipto (FR) 15/2 Betfred
16:15 Naas Dollar And A Dream (IRE) 5/1 Betfred

Drifters – Good or Bad

Today’s pearl of wisdom has been inspired by a bet on the Racing Consultants (http://racingconsultants.co.uk) tipping service last week.

This bet has been the talk of the office because we got so many emails and opinions in about it.

Basically last Thursday David Massey posted up four bets

Today

7.15 Kempton – 1pt win Taaresh (8-1 Bet Victor, Paddy Power, W Hill and others)

7.45 Kempton – 1pt e/w Tevez (9-1 Skybet, Stan James, Coral)

2.15 Wincanton – 1.5pts win Silver Commander (at 6.6 and above Betfair)

2.15 Wincanton – 2pts lay Silver Commander at 2.76 in running.

4.5pts staked

The one that caused the fuss was Taaresh, this is what David wrote as his reasons for making the selection.

An angle we like to use on a regular basis is a horse that’s improved or refound it’s form over jumps that then reverts to the Flat with a mark that looks on the low side, and Kevin Morgan’s evergreen TAARESH fits that bill nicely here. Winner of a competitive 0-120 at Worcester that’s worked out quite well, he followed that up with a win off 7lb higher and in better class at Wincanton, a sign that he’s clearly in good heart at the moment. Upped in class again for his latest start at Musselburgh, he was far from disgraced in finishing fifth, just getting outpaced in the last quarter of a mile. Back on the Flat and in a low grade handicap, he looks well treated off just 70 here and as a C&D winner for Joe Fanning in the past, has no issue with the conditions either. A slight worry we have is the lack of pace in the race, but that is only a minor one, as he does travel well in his races and isn’t short of pace should it turn into a burn up in the straight.

You’ll note that the price available at the time the bet was posted was 8/1.

By race time he opened up at 16/1 and drifted out to 25/1!

So the question is, if you hadn’t already had your bet placed and a top service tipped you a horse at 8/1 that was now 16/1 and drifting to 20’s then 25’s would you have bet it?

And would you still have your full stake on it?

Or would you assume that it had no chance because of the price and not bet only to watch it win.

So many people will not bet a horse that drifts because they see it as a negative sign.

Gamblers who make money from their betting would see it as a good sign that they are getting extra value!

My advice is if there is sound reasoning as to why a horse should be a selection then your only concern with the price is that you get the best price that you can.

As I’ve used Racing Consultants as an example I should mention that the service has now been live for 6 month and every month has been a profitable month with a total profit of £1784.50 to £10 stakes. Which is pretty good for a service that costs just £30 per month. http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today’s Selection

4.10 Kempton Zman Awal – win bet 2/1 Paddy Power

Sire Systems

Back in February this year I loaded some system rules into Horse Race Base around the sire Dom Alco (FR)*.

Basically the system rules were just to bet the 5 to 8 year old progeny of this sire when running over distances of 2 mile 6 furlongs to 3 mile 1 furlong.

A simple little system to capture the runners of a sire who is starting to have more runners and whose runners seem to be outperforming the market over recent years.

Here are the returns since I created the system…

Runs = 21
Wins = 5
Strike Rate = 23.8%
Profit 1 point level stakes at iSP = 18.25
ROI at iSP = 86.9%

There could probably be more rules added to this to increase the strike rate, but there isn’t a huge amount of data to work with.

Anyway the reason I mention this today is because the system has a qualifier and I’m going to have a little each way bet on it…

Today’s Selection

3.40 Exeter Sixty Something – eachway bet – 15/2 Bet 365

* Of course with the death of Dom Alco in 2010 this is only a short term angle 🙁

More Up In Class

Following on from yesterday’s research into a possible new National Hunt system we had one comment (thanks Kenny) with suggestions for further research. So today I’ll look into the figures a bit further and see what we can dig up.

First off I looked at race distance for the horses that were up in class for the trainers we selected.

Here’s the data I was returned…

Up In Class by Distance Table

 

From this I can see that some distances have proven to be more profitable than others in the past.

But I can think of no logical reason why some distances would have a higher strike rate and more profit. For example why would 2 mile and 1/2 a furlong races be profitable but 2 mile 1 furlong races not be. It’s only a hundred meters further!

However it’s worth noting that the majority of these race types are 2 mile races, and they are very profitable.

Next I looked at courses, here’s the overall table…

Up In Class by Course Table

 

We can see that some are very profitable and some very unprofitable. I’m sure we could think up reasons why some would be more profitable than others, but I suppose what we really should do is to pick just one of our trainers and break down the data for course and distance for just that trainer and see if we can build a profile for these types of runners for each trainer.

So I’ll put that on my to do list for next week and we’ll see if we can drill down and build a collection of winning profiles.

There’s no bets for the original system idea yet, if you missed it you can read it here

Today’s Selection

3.30 Uttoxeter Carningli – win bet – evens Bet 365

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