Tag Archives: stomach

National Hunt Trainer Facts

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = – 7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Willie Mullins Irish Course Run 2013 - 14 table

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

 

 

I Love Betting Systems

If you are on Lester Cavanagh's mailing list you may have already seen this but it's a fun article about using betting systems and I'm happy that Lester has let me publish it here.

Before I hand you over to Lester a quick update. I got off to a losing start with Classic Racing yesterday but had an excellent day with Mark Foley's Trainer Trends.

Mark had a busy day with 13 selections, 4 winners and +8.50 points at SP, very nice – Trainer Trends

Over to Lester…

I love betting systems. Alright love may be a bit of a strong word…

No, actually I don't think it is.

Every time I come up with one my heart skips a beat and I get butterfly's in my stomach. If I don't use one for a while I miss it. Systems even keep me warm at night (expensive duvet) and don't complain if I leave the toilet seat up!

Don't get me wrong I have had a few bad experiences along the way with systems that just used me for the money without showing any love in
return.

Sometimes me and the system are getting along fine and then we fall out over the 4.15 at Newcastle. We almost always make up, usually after the next winner and all is forgiven.

I love systems for a number of reasons.

I like the intense research months where I think about nothing else. I get lost in a world of videos, facts figures and trends and then that amazing Eureka moment when everything falls into place and you know it will work.

I'm not alone in my love for systems but for every system fan there will be two haters somewhere.

You must have heard it before. Some will swear that systems don't work and they would be half right. Some systems dont work usually because they don't have the key ingredient present, an angle.

They will usually mention the dreaded word backfitting. Backfitting is a dirty word in our industry. Backfitting is the manipulation of data to produce results that wouldn't stand up to real life betting.

I agree to some extent but I had this argument with a pro gambler once who read form to find the value necessary to make a long term profit. He said he didn't use systems because of the backfitting issue.

I said the definition of a betting system is the use of past data to help us find future winners. He agreed.

I asked him how he came to find his bets. He wouldn't tell me the whole story but he reeled off a number of things he looked for before making a bet.Most of it was stat based.

You should have heard the language when I said “so you use past data and information to hopefully find a future winner, sounds like a betting system to me…..”

Betting systems can be based on anything but the best ones are the simple ones based on a strong angle.

One system that did the rounds years ago (name escapes me) was based on an angle but didn't have a strong and logical reason.

The system seller didn't reveal the angle and just sold the selections which is fine and at first the selections did quite well until the system rules were unveiled by a bitter friend.

The one and only rule of the system was to bet on any horse who's jockey was wearing pink colours!

Needless to say the system didn't work long term.

When I personally design a system the angle has got to come first. To get the ideas I read as much as I can and watch as much as I can.

The inspiration may come from an article or a result or even something a presenter has said (usually not the channel 4 lot).

The keys to using a system once one has been found are confidence and patience which generally go hand in hand but the single most important thing to develop when betting in general is discipline.

To be disciplined you need to be able to cope with what I call the itch.

The itch is always there for some, including me.

Gambling can be like an itch you can't scratch and when you do it moves to somewhere else, ahhh annoying!!

The itch tells us to gamble when we shouldn't and there is money to be made everyday on a multitude of different sports.

It is what makes us bet on the Mongolian goat hurding at 1.30 in the morning. Yes we may have spent hours on Hurdingstats.com which convinces us to make the bet when we know we really shouldn't.

Betting systems help me control the itch and systems themselves can help you on the way to a disciplined mind set.

These days I am just as proud of myself for avoiding a bad bet as I am when I win a good one.

Apart from the big meetings I hardly ever try and read form at all, and it's still a system as explained earlier. My systems tell me when to bet based on years of stats, and just as importantly when not to bet!

For example football. It is my first sporting love and the sport I feel I have most knowledge about. Can I win at it?…..Not a bean so I have stopped. I suppose that is a system in itself.

The don't bet on football system has made/saved me thousands.

When I am searching for a system to review, follow or recommend I look for the angle first. If it is a sound and logical angle I will explore the system further.

Then the results. Any system must have many months if not years of publicly displayed results or at the very least been proofed to me or someone I trust.

Then we must decide whether the system will suit our style of betting.

Some will have multiple bets a day and other will have less than one a week.

We must also look at the stake size we must use to pay for the system/selections and make a nice profit.

Credentials of the seller are also important. Is he/she a real person? Has the product been reviewed on a trusted website?

Only then can we consider giving the system a trial to small stakes or even better by paper trying trading first.

After all that and more we can take the plunge. There is no better feeling when discovering an easy to use system that makes money.

I suppose at the end of the day systems can be a cruel mistress at times and even the best can make you fell like leaving them.

Once you have found the right one treat her well, respect her and spend time with her and the rewards can be amazing.

Choose her at random without paying any attention and leaving the toilet seat up will be the least of your worries…….

Good luck
Lester Cavanagh

To find out more about Lester and his excellent Win Each Way system – Click Here

Today's Selection

Cheltenham 2.00 Ma Filleule – win bet – 7/4 Sky Bet, Bet 365, Bet Victor

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