Tag Archives: study

400 Points a Year System

Today we have our regular Wednesday column from Malcolm Pett (http://greyhorsebot.com)

We do a lot of “open” testing at the Grey Horse Bot web site sometimes just to see how a particular idea will work out (high strike rate favourites) and sometimes to test a new system idea that looks like it could work.

Although it’s nice to see a profit from the testing sometimes the goal is just to see if a system is performing as expected.

As you know not every system will make a profit every month so a trial period may not be profitable but if the system performs as it has in the past then that is a good sign.

We started testing “Elision” back at the end of August.

This was planned as a 3 month test just to see if the ratings system we were using to help find the selections did actually continue to work as expected.

Elision is a Handicap Hurdle system and although the ratings picked the selections we added in a few other filters to help whittle down the field…

…Although because of the ratings we can still end up with more than one selection in a race.

The test has been quite revealing which you can see if you study the results page.

We have recently started to increase the amount of statistical information we supply on our results and have now added…

Longest Losing run
Predicted Longest losing Run.
Highest Bank draw down.

These along with the month by month and day by day results and the visual graph give you a good understanding of how the system is performing.

Another thing we give our customers from time to time is a report about the test which includes information about how we feel the system had performed and there is also one of these available on the results page.

I am not sure if Elision will appeal to everyone. But the fact that it made over 500 points last year and has still managed over 400 points this year should tempt you to at least have a look.

You can get all this information here.


http://greyhorsebot.com/elision

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot.

Today's Selection

Kempton 6.50 Jelly Fish – eachway bet – 8/1 Sporting Bet

Malcolm Pett System Development

Today we have our regular column from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

Following on from last weeks article where we looked at the idea of selecting between two and ten selections a day and then seeing how good we are at getting winners.

After thinking about this for a while I decided I would try something a little different and select runners who at around 5 in the morning, were ranked 2nd according to Betfair's early prices.

Now I know this is probably a strange way of doing things and I knew I was going to get caught out by information appearing later that could change the ranking.

But as with all ideas you need somewhere to start.

I then had to filter out runners based on their current and past form.

But I didn’t go crazy I just used three key pointers that I thought from experience would help.

Here are the selections and results.


The original idea I had was, that I would then take these selections and look a bit deeper at the form and decide whether to use them or not.

I was also hoping that I would get at least 5 selections a day to use in order to this.

But actually that isn’t the way it worked out.

Some days there can be 5 or 6 selections but on others there is only 1 or even none at all.

Of course the easiest thing I could do is change the actual selection criteria…

…But on further study I think I am getting roughly around 24% to 28% strike rate which for a pretty simple selection process is, I think, pretty good.

One of the filters I have used (which I must admit I haven’t used very often in the past) is “Unexposed” horses.

I haven’t been very scientific about it…I have just filtered out horses that have had more than x (x being my secret number) runs.

It just appears the number I have chosen helps with finding winners.

I am also only using selections where the horse has run recently.

As with all systems getting a consistent strike rate is only half the story…

…Getting winning prices that cover your losses and make you a profit is the other half.

A 24% strike rate means I have to get average winning odds of 3.15 just to break even.

Saying all that…The selections haven’t done too well so far this month with only 1 winner from 12.

So it will be interesting to see if they pick up.

You can follow along with this test here.


Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

The Grey Horse Bot

Today's Selection

Towcester 3.10 Leaderofthedance – win bet 3/1 Bet 365

Profitable Trainers and Jockeys

Today Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com talks about the research he is doing into profitable trainers and jockeys.

Profitable Trainers and Jockeys

Over the last year or so I have got really interested in Jockey and Trainers.

There is always a lot of talk about following the ones that are “in form”.

One thing I have learned is that it is not easy following them but if you manage your money correctly and are prepared to follow through then they can be rewarding.

One of the “open” tests we have been running at the Grey Horse Bot web site for the last 5 months is 16 jockeys to follow on the flat (grass only).

For me this system shows quite clearly how “interesting” it can be to follow Jockeys.

I have to admit I didn’t do too much work on this system I just took the top 16 jockeys that had over 200 runs (in our database at the time) and had made at least 10 points profit and had a strike rate of over 10%

So far this season (2014) combined:

3626 Selection


484 Wins


13.35 % Strike rate


277.97 points profit (at BSP -5%)


AWO 7.44


ROI 7.67%

When you look at statistics from a system there are always one or two figures that can give you an understanding to how hard it can be to follow a system.

13.35% strike rate normally means some long losing runs.


ROI 7.67 also points to a lot of work to earn those 277 points.

Of course with a bit more work and study we could have probably cut out some of the races and maybe even some of the Jockey could have been dropped.

But it does show that they can be very profitable even if they can be hard work to follow.

With the jump season upon us it’s a good time to look at some other statistics.

If we take Jockeys running on Handicap Hurdles with at least 100 runs (over the last two years).

Even the best only manage an average strike rate of around 16 to 18%.

You can find higher strike rates on jockeys with less runs so it is always worth looking for Jockeys that maybe only pick certain races to run in or new ones that appear to have started well.

This figure alone should tell you that you need to see if any jockey you want to follow does better in certain types of races of with specific trainers.

Trainers (less runs) do not fare much better on overall strike rate with the average being pretty similar to Jockeys.

The really interesting statistic is Jockeys and Trainers.

There is no doubt that there are pairings that are very successful like A P McCoy and Jim Best.

Strike rate on many of these are as high as 50% (over the last 2 years) and many are in the 30 to 40% range.

Some of these pairings can be very profitable especially some on the less well known ones.

So if you don’t like the idea of following Jockeys or Trainers on their own because of the low strike rate then the answer could be Jockey and Trainer pairs.

Check out open testing in the Article section of the Grey Horse Bot web site.

Malcolm Pett

Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

4.00 Ludlow The Bear Trap – win bet – 4/1 Sky Bet

Beat The Odds and you Will Profit

Sometimes in life we need to remind ourselves of the fundamentals of whatever we are striving to be successful with in order to get our ship back on course.

With betting the biggest fundamental is value and the easiest way to make money from betting is to make your bets at odds that are better than starting price.

And beat starting price when it is adjusted down for a true market IE the prices make up a 100% chance when all possible outcomes are added up.

Starting price, especially these days with the betting exchange markets is an easy and reasonably reliable indicator of the true price/chance for any runner.

And the easiest and most efficient way to do that these days is to beat Betfair SP.

Betfair SP makes up to 100% and the prices are fair to both backers and layers.

If you can beat the Betfair SP consistently then you will make a profit.

There are tipping services that base their whole selection criteria around betting on horses that are showing signs that they will shorten in price from the morning bookie price to the starting price.

Although that is a winning strategy in itself, a better strategy is to study form and make your own selections, determine your own prices and bet where the early prices are bigger than your assessment.

That can be hard work though and you may want somebody to tell you what to bet to beat the market and if you want to be a winner without the work I would recommend Rory and David of the http://racingconsultants.co.uk

These guys are regularly beating Betfair starting price and consequently they make steady and consistent profits.

They also give a full analysis of every bet they give so you know exactly why they have made each bet.

http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

7.40 Windsor L´Orfeo – win bet – 2/1 Ladbrokes

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