Tag Archives: table

Free Football Tips

If you like to know exactly why your tipster makes the bets he makes and you like to see just how much work goes into making winning selections then you'll love Mark Foley.

Mark made 36 points profit in December with his Premier League bets and today I have his analysis and selections for the Sunderland V Liverpool game for you.

Last time we gave one of Mark's analysis here it made a tasty profit for readers and wise owls joined his service here for just £9.99

http://footballforecasts.uk

Racing fans, don't forget Nick Hardman gave his Lanzarote tips on yesterdays post.

Over to Mark Foley…

Sunderland v Liverpool 12.45 BT Sport1

Liverpool have been improving of late and their only defeat in the last 8 came at Old Trafford, they have also made the semi finals of the Capital One cup and are in the 4th round of the FA cup. However, you wouldn’t want one of their players to take your dog for a walk, they are still struggling to hold onto a lead and threw away a two goal lead against Leicester last week.

Sunderland have looked far more secure since Costel Pantilimon took over between the sticks, he has the best saves to shots ratio of any Premier League goalkeeper this season (78%) and although Sunderland have won just one of their last 10 league matches, they have only lost three of those ten games.

The Black Cats have won just one of their last 10 Premier League games against Liverpool but 4 of the games have ended as draws. Liverpool have won five of their last eight Premier League visits to the Stadium of Light (W5 D1 L2). One of those defeats back in 2009 saw the only Sunderland goal scored by a certain B.Ball; whatever happened to Mr beach ball?

Sunderland have scored a higher proportion of their goals in the final 15 minutes of Premier League games than any other side (33%) and they have also picked up more yellow cards (52) than any other team in the top flight. Sunderland to come from behind and draw looks like a bit of value at 8/1 with Hills.

Liverpool have only been losing once after 45 in their last 15 PL games and have been all square in all but 3 of the last 13.

Sunderland have either been drawing 0-0 or 1-1 at HT in all but one of their last 10 PL games. Look towards a blank first half.

Sunderland have played every team currently in the top seven at home apart from Southampton and four of the six games have ended as draws. All but 3 of Sunderland’s 10 goals at home came in the first half hour of the games.

Liverpool have played five teams currently in the top half of the table away from Anfield and have lost four of them. If Sunderland do get an early goal, there is a good chance it will be Adam Johnson who has scored in three of his last four Premier League games.

Seven of the last 11 goals against the Black Cats were scored by Luis Suarez (plus two by Daniel Sturridge). All but one of Raheem Sterling’s 4 goals have come away from home and as long as Liverpool don’

My bets:

Draw/Draw: BetVictor 17/4

HT/FT correct score 0-0/1-1: Powers 16/1

Sunderland to come from behind and draw: Hills 8/1

Adam Johnson 1st goal: BetVictor 13/1

Also considered:

Correct score 1-1: BetVictor 13/2

Correct score HT 0-0: Boylesports 2/1

Raheem Sterling 1st goal: Widely available 5/1

Good Luck
Mark Foley

http://footballforecasts.uk

Football Forecasts

I've got more free tips for you today from a service that has made over 50 points profit in December.

Mark Foley knows the Premier League inside out which is obvious by the detailed analysis that his members get for every match that he analyses.

Today he has bets in three matches and below I have shared his analysis and bets for the Stoke v Man U game.

If you want instant access to the other two games you can join his service for a trial price of £9.99 for the first month.

http://footballforecasts.uk

Stoke City v Manchester United 12.45 KO Skysports 1

Manchester United have a good record in this match, they have won 11 and lost just one of their 13 League meetings with Stoke City. They have won five and lost just one of their last seven away games in all competitions against Stoke, but Stoke are looking solid at the moment and will record three successive Premier League clean sheets for only the second time if they keep United at bay today.

United have played 5 of the teams currently in the bottom half of the table and they haven’t beaten any of them. Stoke really get up for these games, they are notoriously difficult to beat at The Britannia if you are one of the top teams and are in decent form; they held Chelsea to a single goal for over an hour and have recently beaten Arsenal and Everton.

United have by far the bigger squad, but have been badly affected by injuries and the manager admitted that they were running on empty in the 2nd half against Spurs on Sunday. United have only gone in once at Half time leading away from home this season and half of their matches home and away have either been 0-0 or 1-1 at Half time. Six of Stoke’s home games have had no more than one goal in the first 45. I can see this being 0-0 at half time and either ending as a draw or Stoke pulling off a shock. United’s home form and that of David De Gea is disguising the fact that they have been relatively poor away from home. Powers are running a Money Back Special if this ends 0-0, do I’m concentrating on the correct score and first goal scorer markets.

Rooney has scored five goals in his last seven Premier League appearances, but only one of them has come away from home, so I’m happy to pass him over for the first goal.

Peter Crouch has scored only twice in 20 Premier League appearances against Man Utd but both have come for Stoke, we know he likes to get an early goal.
Robin van Persie has scored 10 goals in 10 Premier League appearances against the Potters, including four in five for Manchester United and is the only United player to have scored more than one goal away from home this season.

My Bets:
(All with Paddy Power, Money back special if the match ends 0-0)

Correct score Stoke 1-0: Powers MBS 10/1
Correct score Stoke 2-1: Powers MBS 11/1
Correct score Draw 1-1: Powers MBS 11/2
1st goal scorer P Crouch: Powers MBS 7/1
1st goal scorer R Van Persie: Powers MBS 4/1

Also considered:
Draw/Draw Widely available 9/2
Draw/Stoke Widely available 8/1

For Mark's analysis of Aston Villa V Crystal Palace (15:00) and Tottenham v Chelsea (17:30) join here…

http://footballforecasts.uk

Newspaper Naps

We learn something new everyday as somebody once said and yesterday we had some great comments relating to newspaper tipsters, including one from Chris who told us about a great resource that I wasnt aware of called Napstats.

Napstats records the profit and loss from the newspaper tipsters Nap selections and surprisingly lots of them do very well with their Naps.

Especially when you consider they have been seen by thousands of punters and probably been over bet, especially the popular ones.

Below I have copied the top if the table for Naps over the last two years with Betfair Commission deducted.

Newspaper Naps TableAt the top of the table is Jeffrey Ross of the Glasgow Evening Times who has had 649 selections with 219 winning for a 33.74% strike rate and a profit after commission of 89.88.

That's a 13.8% return on investment, which might not seem amazing, but it is over two years.

Napstats also has the facility to download the selections for each tipster and to analyse their results by price and course.

Go and have a play here http://www.napstats.co.uk/ and if you uncover a gem do share 🙂

Today's Selection

Southwell 2.40 Activation – eachway bet – 6/1 Bet 365

 

 

Newspaper Tipsters

Do you follow a newspaper tipster?

I'm guessing a large part of the betting public do, whether that be a regular tabloid tipster or a specialist newspaper tipster, which these days means one of the Racing Post columns.

I've just been looking at the Racing Post Naps Tables and Tipster Challenge Tables.

In the Press Challenge which pays a first prize of £2,000 to the top tipster at the end of the year there are only twelve entries.

Two of those are The Favourite and Top Course Trainer, which I guess are included to give some context to the tipster performance but probably also to make yp the numbers!

The Press Challenge table is also interesting for the data that it doesnt include as much as it is for what is presented.

It is a year long competition and each tipster starts with a £1,000 starting bank and one pound is staked on each tip. The tipster with the biggest bank at the end of the year wins the prize, but the table doesnt show the size of those yearly banks in the table.

IE we don't know what loss has been made so far this year by each tipster.

What is does show is the monthly profit or loss to £1 stakes, they obviously have the annual figures to date, but I guess it would be demoralising to punters to show them 🙁

If anybody has these tables from the printed Racing Post from the last day of each month so we could build up an annual figure that would be useful?

So what do we get? For the annual stats all we get is the number of tips and the number of winners and a strike rate.

Favourites have won 36% of races this year. I don't quite understand the turnover column but I'm guessing it means how many races the tipster bets on and that the favourites are less than 100% because of joint favourites etc. If anybody knows different then please let me know in the comments.

The Suns Templegate has a 27% strike rate but only selects 48% favourites.

We get profit and loss facts about Naps, which I assume is for the month and that shows Templegate Naps at + 9 points, the negative figures from other tipsters are not big enough for this to be the year to date figures.

Where we get the most info is in the month to date.

This month favourites are winning with + 28.81 from 403 bets, not great but this is at industry SP and as it's favourites we would expect them to return a loss in line with the average over-round. So favourites are over performing this month, so far!

The only other tipster in profit this month is Patrick Weaver from The Star who is +6.44 from 382 bets.

Interestingly Top Course Trainer shows a big loss for the month and a terrible strike rate for the year.

You can check out this data for yourself here http://www.racingpost.com/news/tips_home.sd#topHorseTabs=press_challenge_form

I'm going to make a note to collect the tables at the end of each month to see if we can glean anything worthwhile from them in the future.

Today's Selection

3:30 Plumpton Fred Le Macon – eachway bet – 8/1 Paddy Power, Bet 365

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