Tag Archives: tipsters

Green Up: How To Calculate Your Stakes

The first thing to say is that when this article was first written there was no cash out button on Betfair, so life is easier if you just want to lock in a profit and green up on a horse you've bet, no calculator required. But don't expect to get the best bet possible using the cash out button!

But you should know the maths and how to calculate your own stakes for greening up and that's what we cover on this page.

Yesterday Pete asked how do we calculate our stakes when we have made a trade and we want to green up.

So Pete has backed a horse that is shortening in price and he wants to green up on that selection. IE lock in a profit whatever the outcome.

If for example you were lucky or smart enough to get on Shaws Diamond yesterday morning you could have bet it at around 16.0.

This mare started with a Betfair SP of 6.64. (Easier to find these greening up opportunities in hindsight!!)

So let's say you had a back bet for £10 at 16.0 in the morning and it's just before the off and your horse is now trading at 6.8.

You want to lock in a profit on Shaw's Diamond and want to know what stake to lay at 6.8.

The calculation is to multiply your initial stake times your initial back odds (£10 x 16.0 = £160)

You then divide that by the lay price that you can get (£160/6.8 = £23.52)

Place your lay of £23.52 at 6.8 and your initial bet of £10 has now converted to a guaranteed payout of £12.84.

I mentioned a while back that a lot of serious backers don't wait for a selection to win these days.

Instead they lock in a profit once their horse trades down to a certain level and then lock in the profit.

This method is great for predetermined trades or for when you have time to calculate the stake.

When the pressure is on you might prefer to use lay calculator software that can make the bet in the click of a button 🙂

If you want to it the other way around. So say you have one that's drifting and you lay a tenner at 6.8 and now can back it at 16.0.

Multiply your lay price by your lay stake (£10 x 6.8 = £68) and then divide that by your new odds (£68/16.0 = £4.25).

Back your selection for £4.25 at 16.0 and lock in a £5.46 profit.

A final note: It's easier to find steamers just listen to the pundits and check out free tipsters. Also you risk less money in the initial bet and get a better profit on the green up.

(Green Up: Common parlance for a guaranteed profit on Betfair where every selection shows it will profit if that selection win)

Understanding Greyhound Racing Form

Understanding Greyhound Racing Form

I've been promising for a while now that I will teach some winning greyhound strategies so today I'm going to explain how the form is recorded for the dogs. I'll then go on to share a strategy that I have used for years whenever I bet the dogs.

This is going to run over a number of days and I might spread it out a bit so as to not bore those readers not interested in the dogs, but we'll see how it goes.

So below you will see a screenshot of some greyhound racing form and below that a list of what the various items mean.

Greyhound racing form

Greyhound racing form – Click to Enlarge

[1] Starting with the easy, this is the trap that the dog will run from

[2] The dogs name & (W) indicates that this dog is a wide runner and consequently it will be allocated one of the outside traps each time it runs. You may also see (M) which indicates a middle runner and this dog will be allocated a middle trap.

[3] The best recent (Calculated) time that the greyhound has achieved along with details of the grade and the date. In this case the best time came in a trial, a trial is a qualifying race which helps the racing manager to know how to grade the dog IE what is it's ability what race should he put it in. Trials will usually have less than 6 runners, 3 in this case, and there is no betting on trials.

[4] The name of the trainer.

[5] This is the Racing Post rating for the dog. It is time based and personally I don’t pay much attention to it.

[6] A description of the animal in this case a F b which is a fawn bitch (female) a male will be indicated with a d for dog. This is followed by the name of the dogs sire (father), dam (mother) and the date whelped (Date of Birth).

[7] Date last in season. Bitches only!

[8] This is the Racing Post's tipsters comment, often vague and and can sway your judgement.

Now we get to the past form for the dog in question. Each line represents one race with the top line being the most recent.

[9] The date of the race.

[10] The track where the race was run.

[11] The distance of the race in metres.

[12] The trap number that the dog ran from on that occasion.

[13] The sectional or split time. This is the time from the traps to the winning line the first time the dog passes the line. This is useful to hep you understand the pace of the dog and whether it is likely to lead early.

[14] Position in race at the start (IE out of the traps), quarter (In a 4 bend race this will be between the 1st & 2nd bends), half and three quarter stages.

[15] Finishing position.

[16] The distance beaten by or if the winner the distance won by.

[17] The name of the winner or the second if this dog was the winner.

[18] The Racing Manager's in running comments for that run

[19] The time that the winner took to complete the race.

[20] The allowance made for the going. N = normal otherwise plus or minus in hundredths of a second EG – 40 means that the time was adjusted down by 40 hundredths of a second.

[21] The starting price of the dog.

[22] The grade of the race.

[23] The calculated time for this dog. This will be calculated from the distance the dog finished behind the winner and adjusted for the going allowance.

Now that we understand the information (form) that we have available next time we can look at how we can use that information.

Now we know how to read the card check out these posts that deal with finding a winner.

Who is the fastest to the first bend

Greyhound racing videos 

Baulking

Is it fast enough

Image courtesy of Saris0000 under Creative Commons 2.0

Top Ten Tipsters

The Tipster Table is based on the last 30 days selections and uses the Best Odds Guaranteed prices to record the level of profit. The overall Return on Investment is our main concern, but obviously this has to be coupled with a reasonable strike rate.

All prices quoted are at Advised Odds.

1. Back LucrativeStrike Rate 21% ROI 77%
Back Lucrative has come storming back in to the tipster table after last being seen toward the end of April. Winners with Still on Top 10/1, Ralphy Boy 12/1, Encapsulated 14/1and Realtra 12/1 have boosted the profits back up from their negative position toward the end of July to now being a very healthy 76 points profit in the last 30 days!
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2. Flat AttackStrike Rate 33% ROI 61%
Flat Attack is a climber this week from the Number 6 slot last week aided with wins from Burningfivers 11/2 and Muqtaser 3/1 and an each way winner finishing second with Radhhadh 11/1 all adding to the profit tally.
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Top Ten Tipsters

With the Glorious Goodwood meeting over how have the Tipsters fared over the past week. Are there any surprises in store for us?

The Tipster Table is based on the last 30 days selections and uses the Best Odds Guaranteed prices to record the level of profit. The overall Return on Investment is our main concern, but obviously this has to be coupled with a reasonable strike rate.

All prices quoted are at advised odds.

1. GO RacingStrike Rate 53% ROI 62%
GO Racing has shot up the table to the Number One slot this past week. Gareth Owen Racing claims 20 years of experience in the UK Racing Industry. He also claims to speak daily to “connected” people knowing those whom to listen to and those whose advice to ignore. This week there have been five winners from the last eleven selections with prices ranging from Evens to 9/2. Not massive prices but the resultant 11.50 points profit has added to the current 30 day total which now stands at a shade less than 33 points.
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2. ITK RacingStrike Rate 42% ROI 67%
ITK Racing is a re-entry to the Tipster table this week and last seen two weeks ago. Just the five selections this week but of those there were two winners at Evens and 13/2 which has pulled them back from albeit a slight downward trend which they were on with regards to profit. It may be to keep a watching brief with this one.
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