Tag Archives: trade

Green Up: How To Calculate Your Stakes

The first thing to say is that when this article was first written there was no cash out button on Betfair, so life is easier if you just want to lock in a profit and green up on a horse you've bet, no calculator required.

But you should know the maths and how to calculate your own stakes and that's what we cover on this page.

Yesterday Pete asked how do we calculate our stakes when we have made a trade and we want to green up.

So Pete has backed a horse that is shortening in price and he wants to green up on that selection. IE lock in a profit whatever the outcome.

If for example you were lucky or smart enough to get on Shaws Diamond yesterday morning you could have bet it at around 16.0.

This mare started with a Betfair SP of 6.64. (Easier to find these green up opportunities in hindsight!!)

So let's say you had a back bet for £10 at 16.0 in the morning and it's just before the off and your horse is now trading at 6.8.

You want to lock in a profit on Shaw's Diamond and want to know what stake to lay at 6.8.

The calculation is to multiply your initial stake times your initial back odds (£10 x 16.0 = £160)

You then divide that by the lay price that you can get (£160/6.8 = £23.52)

Place your lay of £23.52 at 6.8 and your initial bet of £10 has now converted to a guaranteed payout of £12.84.

I mentioned a while back that a lot of serious backers don't wait for a selection to win these days.

Instead they lock in a profit once their horse trades down to a certain level and then lock in the profit.

This method is great for predetermined trades or for when you have time to calculate the stake.

When the pressure is on you might prefer to use software that can make the bet in the click of a button 🙂

If you want to it the other way around. So say you have one that's drifting and you lay a tenner at 6.8 and now can back it at 16.0.

Multiply your lay price by your lay stake (£10 x 6.8 = £68) and then divide that by your new odds (£68/16.0 = £4.25).

Back your selection for £4.25 at 16.0 and lock in a £5.46 profit.

A final note: It's easier to find steamers just listen to the pundits and check out free tipsters. Also you risk less money in the initial bet and get a better profit on the green up.

(Green Up: Common parlance for a guaranteed profit on Betfair where every selection shows it will profit if that selection win)

Betfair Trader

Today I am mostly reading about trading.

There is an interesting article in this months SmartSigger (Get your 1st month free here http://dailypunt.com/smartsig ) about the different types of Betfair trader and what sort of trader you might be.

As well as detailing different trading strategies, it also suggested a super fast trading tool which is free to use 🙂

I haven't tried it yet, but it definitely sounds like it is worth a play.

Here are some of the key features…

– Unbeatable speed – super fast trading on Betfair

– Grid Interface – single click trading, compact Betfair-style trading grid

– Ladder Interface – full depth of market, single click trading, queue position and built-in robot

– Position In Queue (PIQ) – provides a real-time estimated PIQ, arguably the most important and unique feature of our ladder!

– Automated Trading Robot – included is a unique Betfair bot, watch it trade on the ladder for you!

– Multi-Market – trade several different markets simultaneously

– Managed Markets (Guardian) – works in the background to gather data from multiple ‘managed' markets and maintain offset bets

– Tick Offset – automatically sends an opposing bet, after you get matched

– Stop Loss – automatically limits your losses. Trailing Stop Loss can also protect profits

– Racing Autopilot – it can automatically select each horse race and move forward
Greening (Cash-out) – a single click to lock in your profit (or loss) regardless of the outcome

– Advanced Charts – possibly the most comprehensive integrated charting available in any Betfair application

I think the most interesting and important feature for the trader is the advanced charts!

You can get the software here http://www.cymatic.co.uk/

If you've used it before I'd love to have your feedback in the comments.

Today's Selection

8.45 Kempton Four Cheers – eachway bet – 14/1 Bet Victor

In Running Delusion!

Today we have a guest article from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

1.09 in running just won’t work…

Hi

Every so often we get an influx of support questions about betting in-play and the issues people are getting when they are trying to get matched at 1.09 or whatever the latest fad is regarding this idea.

This idea has been going around in different forms since Betfair began and is based around getting matched as often as you can on the horse that looks like it will win the race.

The normal explanation is that you get on the first runner that drops below a certain price.

It’s started in the early days of getting matched at 1.01 or 1.02 gradually it has moved out to 1.09 or somewhere close.

On paper the ideas may sound feasible but in practice it really doesn’t work that well and here is why…

The problem lies with Betfair’s matching policy.

If you put a “back” bet into the market at 1.09 then only 3 things can happen.

1. You get matched at 1.09
2. You don’t get matched at all.
3. You get matched higher than 1.09.

You get matched at 1.09

If you are lucky and as soon as you put your bet into the market Betfair has enough money on the lay side to match your bet, you will get matched at 1.09.


You don’t get matched at all.

Betfair will not match a back bet under the price you asked for, so if the price has moved past 1.09 IE it has continued shortening you will not get matched.

You get matched higher than 1.09

Betfair’s policy allows them to match a back bet at a higher price than you asked for. This is how the exchange works if they couldn’t do this then Betfair wouldn’t exist.

So if the price drifts because the horse no longer looks like a winner then you will get matched at the higher price.

So with the above in mind let me show you how this idea is flawed.

You are sitting there watching the screen or running a bot that is set to put a bet into the market either on the first runner to hit 1.09 or a pre determined named runner.

The runner hits 1.09 and you place your bet into the market.

So our first assumption is that this runner is likely to win the race because it has hit 1.09.

If it is winning the race (and a lot of people will be watching live at the course checking this) then two things will be happening….

1. All the people out there using a similar strategy will be putting as much money into the market as they can.

2. Many traders will be trying to offset an earlier lay bet.

If this horse is looking like it will win the race that price of 1.09 won’t be there for long…Probably less than a second.

So if you’re doing this manually your probably be too late and even bots may not be quick enough.

The biggest issue will be that Betfair won’t have enough money to match at 1.09 and because they can not match your back bet under 1.09, then you will end up with an “unmatched” bet.

But then we have the other side…

Again we see the price go under 1.09 and we are at the same scenario as before except this time something happens on the course and suddenly our selection is no longer winning.

So the opposite starts to happen and the layers get into the market and probably a lot of traders.

Before we know it the price goes from 1.09 to 1.2 or higher and you are just in line to get matched as soon as Betfair can.

In theory this could be as high as 999 but it doesn’t matter it is over 1.09 so you have been matched on a runner you weren’t expecting. (A runner that no longer looks like winning)

The real point is that you are going to find it easier to get matched on a runner that has hit 1.09 and then goes on to lose, than you will on one that goes on to win.

The complaint we always get from people who do not understand the way Betfair works is that you were matched higher than 1.09.

Yep and that will happen a lot because that’s the way Betfair works!

Just a little more information…

First of all if a runner goes to 1.09 then that would have been your selection. It doesn’t matter what price you get matched at after that, unless your runner goes onto win then you lose your stake.

The point is (according to the rules of the system you are following) the runner did hit 1.09 at some stage so it was a selection.

Secondly if you stick to 1.09 then you probably won’t get matched often enough to make the idea viable.

Thirdly I am sorry to say but I know of people who have created very specialized software to follow this idea.

I believe many of these people also have people at the tracks feeding them information or they have a connection that lets them see the race live.

There are only two ways you may get this idea to work.

When your selections hits 1.09 you put the bet into the market at 1.01 and see how often you get matched and at what price and see if it works.


You put a bet into the market wait a second and then cancel. You either got matched or didn’t but at least you may not have wasted a bet on a runner that ended up losing.

As I said at the beginning on paper the idea seems as if it will work but in practice it is a different matter.

Still some sites still insist on selling this strategy as “easy money”.

I don’t agree.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd”

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

2.35 Goodwood 7 Moonraker – eachway bet – 12/1 Bet 365

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