Today I've nicked a very small part of a detailed article that Nick Hardman wrote for the On Course Profits magazine.
(Get the whole mag for free at http://oncourseprofits.com)
The article that Nick wrote teaches readers how to find their own profitable trainer trends and in this excerpt he starts by looking at the leading trainers at Southwell.
Keith Dalgleish has a very healthy 28% strike rate and has had a decent amount of runners. By clicking on “Run” we can see the yearly breakdown of the trainer’s performance at the track.
Two things are interesting here. Firstly, he has almost doubled the amount of runners he sends to the Midlands track compared to 2011 and 2012. Secondly, his performance in the last 2 seasons suggests his yard is clearly on an upward curve.
Again we use Keith Dalgleish at Southwell (AW) from 2011 to 2014 as the basic system to search for a profitable betting angle in HRB. Immediately we can see that all of his profit has come in handicap races.
Digging deeper into his handicap performers showed winners came from all age groups across a variety of race distances. The recommendation here would be to back all his handicap runners at Southwell.
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Today's Selection
12:20 Newcastle Jonny Eager – win bet 3/1 Coral
Free National Hunt System
Thanks for your comments on yesterday's article I have more on the Willie Mullins runners today.
Willie Mullins
The first question asked in the comments was what are the returns if we only back the runners that carry the top jockeys at the most profitable tracks?
Well the answer is that you get a reduction in bets down to just 56 since January 1st 2013 but that you get a return on investment of a healthy 53%, so that's good.
But what I notice when I look at the performance at the various tracks when Ruby or Paul ride is that a lot more tracks move into the profitable side of the table.
And that if we add in those other tracks where a profit has been made then we can get the number of bets up over 200.
In fact we get 229 runs, 109 wins, 64.93 profit and 28.35% Return on Investment.
By the way most of the profit comes from Paul Townend, because when Ruby rides the horse is always overbet and the price starts much shorter 🙁
Anyway here's what we have now (results are from 1st January 2013 to yesterday)
National Hunt, Hurdle Races in Ireland at one of the following courses
Ballinrobe, Fairyhouse, Galway, Leopardstown, Limerick, Naas, Navan, Punchestown,
Sligo, Thurles, Tipperary or Wexford
Horse Trained by Willie Mullins
Horse ridden by Ruby Walsh or Paul Townend
Postion in market equals 1 to 4
Runs = 229
Wins = 109
Strike Rate = 47.6%
Profit at iSP = 64.93
Return on Investment = 28.35%
Today's Selection
6.40 Wolverhampton Deebaj – win bet 11/10 Paddy Power
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