type Archives • Daily Punt

Favourite Average Price Rise

Posted on January 21, 2015 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Today we have our regular weekly column from Malcolm Pett of GreyHorseBot.com
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In the last couple or articles we have been looking at the results from an interactive test we have been doing over at the Grey Horse Bot website.

Part of this test is also to discover if it is better to be on all the selections or to stop at the first winner of the day.

I picked 220 or above as my rating figure (see later why this may still be to low).

It hasn’t been the best of weeks for this number and it was only because of a 6.3 winner a couple of days ago that we are still showing any profit for this month.

This is a bit of a shame as it was a lot more positive last week…

…But that’s racing for you.

I am a statistical type of person so I don’t like to blame the weather.

And I do know this…

Favourites average prices tend to drop slightly in the winter.

I am not sure why but it could be that there are less races so they are more heavily backed than they normally would be.

But a quick check on the averages over the last couple of years shows that from the height in the summer of 3.5 (sometimes higher) in the winter this can drop to around 3.1.

And although the strike rate of this particular system has dropped off slightly…

…The amount of favourites winning is slightly better than the norm this month.

Which again, strangely, seems to happen around the winter months.

But back to the system test…

I am still not convinced that SAW is the best way to go but it is going to take more testing to actually make that decision.

If you crank the ratings figure up to 240 then things look a little better for all selections and it may be my choice of 220 was still a little low.

This will probably be my last report about this test for a few weeks.

Unless something amazing happens!

You can see the results from this test and get the daily selections here.

Thanks
Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot

GreyHorseBot.com

Today's Selection

2:00 Lingfield Ershaad – win bet 5/6 Bet Victor

Filed Under: Systems
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Big priced Selection from Top Tipsters

Posted on December 31, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Not much going on this morning with only Lingfield racing, so I've nicked the write up for a big priced small stake each way bet from the excellent http://racingconsultants.co.uk

This guys have been impressing us all for the past 6 months or so and havent had a losing month since launching.

If you want to get serious about your betting in 2015 then I recommend these guys

http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Here's the full write up from David Massey this morning…

Good morning all,

The year ends as a bit of a damp squib, with Uttoxeter and Warwick getting the elbow early this morning but it does give us a clear run at the cards tomorrow. Cheltenham declarations have just come out as I type this, and the card has held up well – hopefully we can kick the New Year off in a bit of style.

Today, just one bet.

2.40 Lingfield – 0.5pts e/w Glastonberry (22-1 Bet Victor, Hills)

Lingfield

2.40 – 7f Handicap (class 4)

Not the most competitive of affairs, and top weight Shyron is likely to be a popular order after a win and close second at Wolverhampton, both of which show him to be in good form.But at a bigger price GLASTONBERRY is worth a second look.

Well drawn on the inside (has been held up on last two starts, but often races more prominently) he's a record of 3210 over this C&D and has won after a four month break before, giving hope that he could be ready to go first time out.

He won at Kempton earlier in the season and already finds himself only 1lb higher than that win, so has every chance from a handicapping point of view too.

Filed Under: Tips
... ..., 0.5pts, 22-1 Bet Victor, bet, Bet Victor, betting, bigger price, bigger price GLASTONBERRY, bit, card, cards, chance, Cheltenham, Cheltenham declarations, Class, clear run, damp squib, David, David Massey, declarations, e/w, excellent http://racingconsultants.co.uk, form, GOING, good form, good form.But, Good morning, guys, handicapping point, Hills, Hopefully, http://racingconsultants.co.uk, Kempton, kick, Lingfield, Lingfield racing, look, morning, order, past, point, popular order, price, races, racing, run, season, small stake, stake, starts, style, time, type, UK, Uttoxeter, view, Warwick, way, way bet, weight, weight Shyron, win, Wolverhampton, Won, worth, |Winners |Strike Rate

Kempton Trainer System

Posted on December 19, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

It's Betting Insiders day with Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com ).

Today Nick shares one of his trainers to follow at Kempton along with selections for today's racing.
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Last week we highlighted Keith Dalgleish as a trainer to follow at Southwell and we gave you a couple of systems to use in the coming months.

In fact, I have been doing a lot of research on trainer performance during the AW season and subscribers to the Betting Insiders Report were rewarded with a 28/1 winner at Wolverhampton from just one of the trainers highlighted in the December issue.

Today, however, I can share with you one of my trainers to follow at Kempton.

Step forward Ralph Beckett. I have taken a close look at his performance during the AW season (November to March) in the last 5 years.

Since 2010 (AW season – November to March) his record at Kempton is:

Runners = 89
Winners = 23
Places = 40
Win strike rate = 26%
Place strike rate = 45%
Profit/ Loss = +£28.45

That may not seem like an earth shattering profit but with the advent of the AW Championships we can see many trainers sending their better horses to the AW tracks in search of much better prize money than in recent years.

Ralph Beckett is one such trainer and that is confirmed in his figures for 2014 alone where he has fired in 9 winners from just 24 runners for a level stakes profit of £25.08 at an impressive strike rate of 38%.

As we did for Keith Dalgleish we can dig a little deeper and see if there is a particular type of runner that he excels with.

In the case of Ralph Beckett it is his runners in maiden races where he does best and they account for 16 of the 23 winners he has had at Kempton during the AW season since 2010:

Ralph Beckett. Maiden runners at Kempton since 2010 (AW season – November to March):

Runners = 54
Winners = 16
Places = 25
Win strike rate = 30%
Place strike rate = 46%
Profit/ Loss = +£41.17

Even better news for us is that 8 of those 16 winners have come in 2014 at strike rate of 47%, producing a level stakes profit of £30.08.

Get him in your notebook for the coming months.

Today I have a few qualifiers from some other systems I am working on.

They are:

Uttoxeter 1.10pm Tokyo Javelix
Southwell 2.45pm Abi Scarlet
Uttoxeter 2.55pm Winged Crusader
Wolverhampton 4.50pm Balayage

Abi Scarlet is a 6 time C&D winner but Pearl Blue will win this if running to her handicap mark on her fibresand debut so it might be worth a saver on the favourite or put the pair in a reverse forecast.

I will be paper trading (or using small stakes) as I road test these systems in the coming weeks.

Of the four, Winged Crusader and Balayage look to hold the strongest chances.

Filed Under: Systems
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Place Ratings

Posted on November 19, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Today we have our regular Wednesday column from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

Using ratings to find selections to place

I was never really interested in the place market on Betfair until recently.
But while working on a new ratings system I noticed a trend that got my attention.

Lately I have got very interested in high strike rate systems that normally select runners that are ranked 1st to 3rd in the betting.

Admittedly these are not the easiest systems to make money with but they can be a little more interesting to follow than your average “One a day” wait for a winner type system.

I am not knocking this type of system as I run many of them myself. I am just saying that sometimes it’s nice to have a few more selections that seem to win very often.

Over the last year or so I have been creating quite a few rating figures based on different ideas and I have shared some of these with Grey Horse Bot users.

The idea of creating any ratings is to help you identify potential winners but I think “help” is the key word…

…They can be useful in helping you to narrow down the field and letting you concentrate on just a few selections in each race.

In my last couple of articles I have mentioned that I was concentrating on the top 3 in the betting as ranked by the BSP prices early in the morning and I wanted to carry on with that idea.

I tend to try and make it a little easier on myself like sticking to “Handicap” races only as I have in this case.

As a programmer with quite a large database of results and information to use I am lucky in the sense that I can come up with ideas and then test them quite quickly.

But you should never forget the fact that humans are very good at noticing patterns.

I make sure I spend a great deal of time just looking at my ratings within the context of a lot of other racing information, just to see if I notice something that I may not have seen just by looking at individual numbers.

And this is what I was doing while looking at my latest ratings.

It appeared that the selections that I had been highlighting (I use yellow normally) to show me strong selections (although were not winning all the time) did appear to place.

Of course nothing is ever that simple and the next thing was to discover if I could come up with a way of identifying enough winning selections to make money.
And that’s where I am at the moment.

I have a list of daily selections and I have to decide which ones I am going to place.

With a couple of rules I am able to either discount the race entirely or select just one runner to follow.

If you would like to see the daily selections and the ideas I have come up with then pop over here for a look. Click Here

You can look back to the beginning of this month at the moment to see if you can find anything yourself.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

The Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

12:35:00 Fairyhouse Digeanta – eachway bet 6/1 Bet Victor, Bet 365

Filed Under: Systems
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Tag Archives: type

Favourite Average Price Rise

Big priced Selection from Top Tipsters

Kempton Trainer System

Place Ratings