Tag Archives: value prices

Winning Trends

If you're a fan of building your own horse racing systems then one thing you must do to improve your systems is to break them down by trainer!

With any system creation you do these days you have to be targeting the small winning factor that you think will prove to be profitable.

There is no one system that can find you multiple bets everyday now, at least not one that makes a profit.

So any successful system that you create will likely drill down into one profitable angle and the fact is that in most cases there will be some trainers that exploit that angle better than others.

Or it may just be that some of the trainers that exploit it are not so popular and so are not overbet and so their runners start at value prices that can make a profit.

If you want further explanation of this strategy for improving systems then pop over to Winning Trends and watch the video there.

If you want daily selections from a portfolio of trainer based systems that have made an average of 18 points profit each month this year, then join the Winning Trends service for just £19.99 per month.

http://winningtrends.co.uk

Today's Selection

2:40 Kempton Greatest Journey – win bet – 5/1 Coral

Using Betfair as a Value Finding Tool 5

Todays’ article has been written by Kieran Ward, professional gambler, tipster and betting blogger over at www.makeyourbettingpay.co.uk

Yesterday, we established that Betfair markets in the few minutes before a race goes off are by far the most accurate guide we have to a horse’s true chance of winning a race.

Now, at first glance it would seem of little use to know that Betfair is our most accurate guide to true probability – when it only becomes truly accurate in the final few minutes before the race.

Surely by that time all the value prices have gone?

Well, yes they have.

However simply knowing that the prices on Betfair are becoming progressively more accurate throughout the day, points us towards a very simple method of ensuring we are getting value on our bets.

If, earlier in the day, we can identify and back those horses that are shortening in price and are therefore likely to be shorter on Betfair in those final moments before the race – we have automatically found value.

Remember that sentence – therein lies the key to long term betting profits.

As long as we can identify horses that will end up a shorter price on Betfair at the off, than the price we are taking now – we cannot fail to make money in the long term!

Now, identifying those horses, with any accuracy, is easier said than done. It can be achieved in a number of ways and you are best searching out a method that suits you

Here’s one method that I use:

Each morning I have a good idea of a fair price for all the runners I am interested in based on form study, trainer stats/jockey stats, my own ratings and a variety of other indicators.

I then monitor the Betfair and bookmaker prices throughout the day to identify whether my opinion is being confirmed/refuted by the markets. This will involve detailed analysis and prediction of price movements based on a variety of indicators.

What’s key in all this is I’m rarely trying to identify the winner of a race. I’m simply using market analysis to identify the horses that are likely to go off at a shorter price than they are currently available at. Having found that value, the winners take care of themselves in the long run.

The analysis of price trends will not be right all the time – that’s impossible – but it doesn’t need to be. As long as it is right most of the time, profits are guaranteed.

In conclusion, finding value is the route to long-term profitability and I hope that my observations on the Betfair markets make finding value that little bit easier for you.

Today's Selection

Lingfield 3.05 Khawatim – win bet – 13/8 Paddy Power

Value Betting Part 1

Today we kick off a five part series of articles looking at value betting and culminating with a method for finding value bets.

The articles have been written by Kieran Ward, professional gambler, tipster and betting blogger over at www.makeyourbettingpay.co.uk

Take it from me, you won’t be able to turn a regular consistent profit from your betting until you fully grasp the concept of value and start applying its principles to every single bet you place.

I literally cannot stress enough how important it is to understand and seek out value in all of your betting. It is, by far and away, the most important factor in profitable betting!

The only way you can make profit from betting in the long term is to ensure that you are getting value prices about your bets. If not, you are doomed to failure. It is that simple.

Amazingly, there are plenty of people out there who will tell you that finding winners is the only important thing. Anybody who tells you that is showing such staggering naivety (and inability to perform the simplest of calculations) that I need to meet them immediately and start offering them some wagers!

The ‘Hole in One’ gang are a great example of finding a value proposition and exploiting it ruthlessly. It’s a famous story but I think it bears a re-telling here.

The ‘Hole in One’ gang operated very successfully for a short time in the early 90s. They were 2 gamblers by the names of Paul Simons and John Carter who, through detailed study of past results, came to realise that the occurrence of a hole in one in professional golf, far from being a freakish, rare event was actually exceptionally common.

They calculated that the true odds of a hole in one being scored in one of golf’s majors are shorter than even money.

They were staggered to discover that large numbers of independent bookmakers were simply not doing their homework and were prepared to offer them ludicrous odds about a hole in one – up to 100/1 in some cases!

They toured the country surreptitiously placing bets in singles, doubles, trebles and accumulators for a hole in one to be scored in the majors, taking all prices from 3/1 upwards. By the time they were finished, they had plunged their entire lives savings of around £40,000 into a multitude of bets.

The rest is history. A hole in one was scored in most, if not all, of the majors that year and the gang’s winnings totalled somewhere in the region of £500,000. (Some of the bookmakers subsequently welched on the wagers and they eventually collected around £420,000).

£420,000 – all for doing a very simple piece of research and realising that the odds available were offering a ludicrous level of value!

Now clearly value opportunities of such magnitude (particularly on such a probable event) don’t arise everyday but you would be surprised just how often decent value opportunities do occur – particularly in horse racing where bookmakers have to assess an almost infinite set of factors in formulating their prices.

Tomorrow, I will define what I mean by ‘value betting’ and work through some examples to show just how important it is.

Today's selection

Wolverhampton 5.35 Follow The Flag – each way bet – 7/1 Victor Chandler

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