Yesterday the favourite was withdrawn from the race that we highlighted as an each way value race.
I know a lot of readers realised that this meant that the selection no longer fitted the EVA rules and didnt bet.
For me I had to rush out on an urgent mission to help a stranded relative and placed the bet before I left and lost a little 🙁
Today there are two races worth looking at to help understand this method a bit more.
I'll look at the later one first because this is one I wont be betting and I want to explain why.
On first glance the Kempton 6.20 looks like a possible bet.
The favourite Miss Astragal is available at 10/11, we then have a second favourite at 11/2 (Palmyra) and the third favourite at 7/1 (Hill of Dreams).
We then jump up to 10/1. The reason I'm weary of this race is because it is a Maiden and although most of the horses have some form there are two with no previous form, including the second favourite and lots with only one or two previous starts.
This tells me that the race is hard to work out, which in turn tells me that the forecast prices cannot be accurate.
With the second favourite priced up on pedigree alone.
The better looking race is the Doncaster 1.10.
Here the prices go…
Tour D´argent 8/13, Parsnip Pete 11/4, Shockingtimes 9/1, An Capall Mor 33/1, Future Profit 66/1, The Goldmeister 40/1, Coral Cove 40/1, The Banana Man 50/1
Here the market tells us that only the first three in the betting have a chance with a big jump to the 33/1 fourth favourite, so it is better looking race straight away.
Now this is a Novice Hurdle and Shockingtimes has only point to point form previously, but has won on the soft and has beaten horses that have gone on to place in hurdles races.
Parsnip Pete is interesting from a value perspective and I think although Tour D'argent will likely win he is way overbet and offers no value.
Assuming all 8 run I will be having an eachway bet on Shockingtimes.
Doncaster 1.10 Shockingtimes – eachway (No bet if less than 8 run)