Tag Archives: way value alternative

More Each Way

Each Way Value Alternative EVAYesterday the favourite was withdrawn from the race that we highlighted as an each way value race.

I know a lot of readers realised that this meant that the selection no longer fitted the EVA rules and didnt bet.

For me I had to rush out on an urgent mission to help a stranded relative and placed the bet before I left and lost a little šŸ™

Today there are two races worth looking at to help understand this method a bit more.

I'll look at the later one first because this is one I wont be betting and I want to explain why.

On first glance the Kempton 6.20 looks like a possible bet.

The favourite Miss Astragal is available at 10/11, we then have a second favourite at 11/2 (Palmyra) and the third favourite at 7/1 (Hill of Dreams).

We then jump up to 10/1. The reason I'm weary of this race is because it is a Maiden and although most of the horses have some form there are two with no previous form, including the second favourite and lots with only one or two previous starts.

This tells me that the race is hard to work out, which in turn tells me that the forecast prices cannot be accurate.

With the second favourite priced up on pedigree alone.

The better looking race is the Doncaster 1.10.

Here the prices go…

Tour DĀ“argent 8/13, Parsnip Pete 11/4, Shockingtimes 9/1, An Capall Mor 33/1, Future Profit 66/1, The Goldmeister 40/1, Coral Cove 40/1, The Banana Man 50/1

Here the market tells us that only the first three in the betting have a chance with a big jump to the 33/1 fourth favourite, so it is better looking race straight away.

Now this is a Novice Hurdle and Shockingtimes has only point to point form previously, but has won on the soft and has beaten horses that have gone on to place in hurdles races.

Parsnip Pete is interesting from a value perspective and I think although Tour D'argent will likely win he is way overbet and offers no value.

Assuming all 8 run I will be having an eachway bet on Shockingtimes.

Todays Selection

Doncaster 1.10 Shockingtimes – eachway (No bet if less than 8 run)

Each Way Steal

Catterick RacecourseJust a short post today.

You remember a couple of weeks ago that we talked about Eachway Value Alternatives.

Today we have a selection that fits that criteria.

The favourite in this race the Catterick 2.50 is currently 8/11.

We have 9 runners declared and we are going with an eachway bet on On Gossamer Wings at 6/1 with Bet 365

This will return a small profit if it places, which is extremely likely and a big profit if it wins.

If you have a comment to make on this method or a selection you want to share then you can do that in the comments below.

Todays Selection

Catterick 2.50 On Gossamer Wings – Eachway bet

Each Way Value


If you don't know about Clive Keeling and his What Really Wins Money newsletter I suggest you check him out.

One of the things that Clive goes on (and on and on) about is what he calls Each Way Value Alternatives or EVA's.

I eluded to this with one of our selections the other day and have been waiting for an opportunity to elaborate on the each way value alternative.

Basically a common occurrence in horse racing is the race with only 2 or 3 real contenders.

These races usually involve an odds on favourite and one or two other contenders along with a lot of no hopers.

Statistically the other contenders have a great chance of placing. And these are the horses we want to bet.

So how do we find these each way efficient races.

Ideally we want 8 or 9 to run, so look first at races of this size. With 8 runners each way bets get paid out on 3 Ā places.

That means we have a better chance of getting paid out and there is not too much competition for those places.

Watch out for non runners though because when the number drops down to 7 we only get paid on two places.

Let's look at an example.

This is the Racing Post betting forecast for the 4.50 at Wolverhampton.

Betting Forecast

There are 9 runners and so if you bet each way with the bookmaker you will get 1/5 odds if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd on the place part of our bet.

If the forecast odds are a fairĀ representationĀ of the horses chances then Fortunelini should stand a good chance of finishing in the 1st 3.

And if it starts at 13/2 (6.5 to 1) then we get odds of 1.3 to 1, of course we lose the win part of the bet if the horse places. But we are getting 0.3 to one if it places with a big bonus if it wins.

And if the forecast is accurate then our horse is very likely to place.

So that's the EVA method a word of warning though, bookmakers don't like punters who regularly bet these EVA's!!

UPDATE (09:30): Fortunelini is now the 12/1 3rd favourite and 9 still run, the value has improved considerably!

Todays Selection

Wolverhampton 3.50Ā Prince of Vasa Each Way (Result Non Runner)

 

 

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