6 Comments

by Dave French

December 18, 2011


If you don't know about Clive Keeling and his What Really Wins Money newsletter I suggest you check him out.

One of the things that Clive goes on (and on and on) about is what he calls Each Way Value Alternatives or EVA's.

I eluded to this with one of our selections the other day and have been waiting for an opportunity to elaborate on the each way value alternative.

Basically a common occurrence in horse racing is the race with only 2 or 3 real contenders.

These races usually involve an odds on favourite and one or two other contenders along with a lot of no hopers.

Statistically the other contenders have a great chance of placing. And these are the horses we want to bet.

So how do we find these each way efficient races.

Ideally we want 8 or 9 to run, so look first at races of this size. With 8 runners each way bets get paid out on 3  places.

That means we have a better chance of getting paid out and there is not too much competition for those places.

Watch out for non runners though because when the number drops down to 7 we only get paid on two places.

Let's look at an example.

This is the Racing Post betting forecast for the 4.50 at Wolverhampton.

Betting Forecast

There are 9 runners and so if you bet each way with the bookmaker you will get 1/5 odds if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd on the place part of our bet.

If the forecast odds are a fair representation of the horses chances then Fortunelini should stand a good chance of finishing in the 1st 3.

And if it starts at 13/2 (6.5 to 1) then we get odds of 1.3 to 1, of course we lose the win part of the bet if the horse places. But we are getting 0.3 to one if it places with a big bonus if it wins.

And if the forecast is accurate then our horse is very likely to place.

So that's the EVA method a word of warning though, bookmakers don't like punters who regularly bet these EVA's!!

UPDATE (09:30): Fortunelini is now the 12/1 3rd favourite and 9 still run, the value has improved considerably!

Todays Selection

Wolverhampton 3.50 Prince of Vasa Each Way (Result Non Runner)

 

 

Disclaimer: All views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TGH Trading Ltd or it's employees.

About the author 

Dave French

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  1. So taking the above as an example you would lose money if the horse does not win even if it gets placed. Say £100 e.w. Horse placed therefore lost £100 (win). Place Win £30. Net P/L equals-£70. The best way to use this approach is to bet on the exchanges and stake to a ratio of 1:3. So the above bet would then be win stake £50 place £150. Assume the horse placed only. Therefore lost £50(win). Place win £45 result P/L -£5 (exc commison). Set minimum place odds of 1.5. Then you are in profit.

    1. Hi David

      Sorry this comment didnt get approved straightaway, somehow it got marked as spam and I only just found it.

      In the example the 13/2 horse is 1.3 to one to place so 2.3 in decimal so if you had £10 eachway and it places your return is £23. A £3 profit.
      The trouble with betting these at the exchanges is that the value that is created by the fixed place terms that the bookies have to use isnt there. Betfair will show a truer lower price for the place part and a truer higher price for the less likely win part.

      There’s a handy calculator for bet returns here
      http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/bet-calculator.html
      Cheers
      Dave

    1. Hi Tony

      The value comes from the fact that the bookies have to give us 1/5 odds and cannot adjust the price to true value. Unlike the Betfair place only market and the Tote place pool.

      Thanks for posting

  2. your info is good in the cyber world..try giving us info for real world tracks like belmont..parx..gulfstream..delaware..pimlico etc. ..thanks

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