Tag Archives: Willie Mullins

Willie Mullins Update

Today we have two selections from the Willie Mullins systems I published on October 28th.

So today I have looked at how the system has performed since publication.

There have only been nine bets and they were…

18.11.2014 Wexford Measureofmydreams Won (RW)
18.11.2014 Wexford Aminabad Won (RW)
16.11.2014 Punchestown Hurricane Fly Won (RW)
15.11.2014 Punchestown River Run 2nd (RW)
15.11.2014 Punchestown Tarabiyn 2nd (RW)
9.11.2014 Limerick Uranna 3rd (PT)
9.11.2014 Limerick Lucky Bridle Won (PT)
9.11.2014 Navan Zaidpour Won (RW)
9.11.2014 Navan Uradel Lost (RW)

There were five wins which gives a strike rate of 55% and the wins have returned industry SP's of 2/9, Evens, 15/8, 2/7, 8/13 which actually gives a break even profit and loss.

At Betfair SP the winners returned 2.09, 1.26, 3.24, 1.28,1.62 which gives a 0.49 point profit before commission and a 0.26 point profit with 5% commission paid.

So not setting the world on fire but on the right track.

The letters in brackets indicate which jockey rode, Ruby Walsh or Paul Townend.

You can read the original article here…

http://dailypunt.com/free-national-hunt-system-2/

And the selections the system has thrown up today are…

1:25 Thurles Bosman Rule
2:00 Thurles Valyssa Monterg

Donald McCain Junior

Do you know who has sent out the most National Hunt runners since January 1st 2013.

Donald McCain Junior.

Thats surprised me, my guess would have been David Pipe or Paul Nicholls, but they come in fourth and fifth behind Donald, Jonjo and Willie Mullins.

So today I'm going to look at some Donald McCain stats, I don't know if they will lead us anywhere, but we'll see.

The headline numbers for all National Hunt runs since January 1st 2013 are a loss of 30% on monies invested with a 16% strike rate.

Donald McCain All Runs Table

 

If we break that down by race type we can see that there isn't much difference in the ROI's although hurdles are the least profitable at SP. National Hunt Flat have the highest strike rate.

Donald McCain Racetype Table

 

For now I'm going to look more closely at the Hurdle races because there is more volume their to work with and the strike rate is better then the Chases.

Breaking down the hurdle runs by track it seems that Donald will go anywhere for his runs with almost every course featuring in the last two years.

This table shows just the ones where he's had more than 10 runs.

Donald McCain Hurdles by Course TableOnly Newcastle, Kelso and  Musselburgh have a positive ROI, with Newcastle and Kelso very positive.

When I look at Jockeys I see that Tony McCoy has a positive ROI again, despite the fact that so many mug punters bet everything he rides he still manages to outrun his odds, you'll remember it was the same with Nicky Henderson.

McCain Hurdles by Jockey

Noel Fehily also has a very good strike rate, but from not many rides.

Ok let's skip ahead a bit and see if we can put something together that is profitable for us to benchmark future McCain runners that we are considering betting.

What I've done is to select all tracks where the strike rate was over 20%, I've then discounted the off season months and only looked at October to March.

And I've excluded Heavy going.

Which gives me a 29.4 % ROI at iSP and a 29% strike rate from 150 runs.

Donald McCain Micro System

 

The courses I included are

Ayr, Bangor, Cartmel, Catterick, Kelso, Musselburgh, Newcastle, Sedgefield & Worcester.

We can improve the ROI by only including Jason Maguire rides but then we will be below 100 bets since January 1st 2013.

Today's Selection

Carlisle 4:00 Court Dismissed – win bet – 5/4 Bet 365

Henderson Hurdlers

So last week we looked at the Willie Mullins hurdlers and drilled down to see where the profit could be found.

Today I'm looking at Nicky Henderson who since January 1st 2013 has had a 23% strike rate with his hurdlers and you could have backed them all at industry SP and only lost 7% of your stakes.

So today I'm going to look at which jockeys do best on Henderson's Hurdlers.

If we find anything interesting there then we will build on that later in the week.

Most of the rides go to Barry Geraghty but when Barry rides the return on investment gets worse dropping down to -9.5%.

Tony McCoy has taken 54 rides in the period and shows an amazing 44% strike rate for Nicky Henderson hurdlers and a return on investment of 20.19% which is also impressive, especially when you consider how many punters like to bet anything that AP rides.

The only other jockey showing a profit is new kid Nico de Boinville, you might remember he won the Coral Cup this year on Whisper when still a 5lb claimer.

His record for Nicky Henderson hurdlers is 34% strike rate and a whopping 97% return on investment, from 38 runs.

Later in the week we'll look at courses for these horses, we'll also take a closer look at Nico de Boinville.

Today's Selection

3.20 Wolverhampton – Sleep Walk – win bet 2/1 Betfair Book

Free National Hunt System

Thanks for your comments on yesterday's article I have more on the Willie Mullins runners today.

Willie Mullins

The first question asked in the comments was what are the returns if we only back the runners that carry the top jockeys at the most profitable tracks?

Well the answer is that you get a reduction in bets down to just 56 since January 1st 2013 but that you get a return on investment of a healthy 53%, so that's good.

But what I notice when I look at the performance at the various tracks when Ruby or Paul ride is that a lot more tracks move into the profitable side of the table.

And that if we add in those other tracks where a profit has been made then we can get the number of bets up over 200.

In fact we get 229 runs, 109 wins, 64.93 profit and 28.35% Return on Investment.

By the way most of the profit comes from Paul Townend, because when Ruby rides the horse is always overbet and the price starts much shorter 🙁

Anyway here's what we have now (results are from 1st January 2013 to yesterday)

National Hunt, Hurdle Races in Ireland at one of the following courses

Ballinrobe, Fairyhouse, Galway, Leopardstown, Limerick, Naas, Navan, Punchestown,
Sligo, Thurles, Tipperary or Wexford

Horse Trained by Willie Mullins

Horse ridden by Ruby Walsh or Paul Townend

Postion in market equals 1 to 4

Runs = 229
Wins = 109
Strike Rate = 47.6%
Profit at iSP = 64.93
Return on Investment = 28.35%

Today's Selection

6.40 Wolverhampton Deebaj – win bet 11/10 Paddy Power

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