Wolverhampton Archives • Daily Punt

Tongue Tie Research

Posted on February 9, 2015 by Dave French • 1 Comment

You'll remember that last week I mentioned the Geegeez article that talked about the use of tongue ties and how a horse needs a few runs with a tongue tie before they will let them self go.

The theory being that the horse still thinks that it's tongue will get in the way and is worried it won't be able to breathe and so doesnt give all.

But after a few runs with a tongue tie it starts to realise that it doenst have tongue problems anymore.

So I've been doing some research.

First off some facts. All horses wearing a tongue tie for the first time in 2013 & 2014 produces the following big losses.

Runs = 3959
Wins = 319
Strike Rate = 8.06%
Loss at iSP = -1335.24
ROI = – 33.73%

So it seems that wearing a tongue tie for the first time is a negative factor and the losing ROI is such that maybe it has the makings of a lay system.

Then it occurred to me that the reason that the horse doesnt perform well first time out with the tie is because it is still worried about a previous experience with breathing and doesn't realise it will be ok with the tie.

But surely there are some trainers that use the tie at home and get the horse used to it and trusting it before they ever go racing with the tie on and that maybe there are trainers that win first time-out with a tongue tie.

So I had a search for trainers who are profitable with first time tongue tie wearers.

And I found some.

For example Rebecca Curtis had 22 starts over the two year period that ran with a tongue tie for the first time.

Seven of those won for a 32% strike rate and they made an industry SP profit of 5.86 which is a 27% ROI.

Charlie Longsdon had 32 starts and 8 wins and an industry SP profit of 20.3. Which is a strike rate of 25% and an ROI of 63%.

I've selected the best performers from 2013/14 and checked their 2015 performance and a good profit has been made so I'm going to run this as a system live for a while and see if we have something worth following long term.

Today's Selection

2.30 Wolverhampton Kalimantan – win bet – 11/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power

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Headgear Racing System

Posted on February 2, 2015 by Dave French • 2 Comments

So last week I told you about an article over at Geegeez that put forward the idea of backing Paul Nichols runners who wear headgear for the first time.

So today I have done some research and investigated all the trainers who have been profitable in the past with their runners who were wearing headgear for the first time.

I'm looking at National Hunt only and am looking at horses who are wearing cheekpieces, blinkers or a hood for the first time.

Along the way I discovered a system with a 10,000% ROI!

Ok, I spotted a trainer who in 2014 only had one runner (Viking Rebel) who wore headgear for the first time and that runner won at 100/1.

Although that would make any system look like a winner I have not included it in my system below.

What I have got is a long list of trainers who had at least 10 runners wearing headgear for the first time from January 1st 2013 through to December 31st 2014 and who made a good profit at iSP with those runners.

Runs = 767
Wins = 127
Strike Rate = 16.56%
Profit at industry SP = 405.23
ROI = 52.83%

All the research was done on the data from 2013 and 2014 and if I run that system on 2015 so far it has already made 42 points profit in 2015.

But, here's the thing!

You could've backed every horse that wore headgear for the first time so far this year and made a profit.

I'm going to monitor this for a while and share any bets that come up on this page and then decide what to do with it once we have some live results.

There's no National Hunt racing today.

Today's Selection

3:10 Wolverhampton – Don't Be – win bet – 10/11 Paddy Power

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Lay the Frogs

Posted on January 26, 2015 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Don't you just love it when you spend hours researching a system looking into an angle that you think will highlight some winners all for nothing.

Or worse still when you research a system and you think you've found a micro system with a little pocket of profit and you set it up in Horse Race Base to notify you of future runners and a year later it's had just seven qualifying bets and all seven have lost.

That's the results from a system I created last January and I've been waiting for some live results to prove it works before I write about it.

It looks like that day will never come 🙁

Whats worse still is that Derek Miller has just released a laying system that uses a similar angle to make big profits from laying.

It's not the same angle I was looking at, I was looking at French bred horses on one particular all weather course.

Derek's system is selecting French breds in National Hunt races, but it does serve to remind me that there are profits in following horses that are bred for different environments and that I knew that but I didn't find the profit.

And Derek has.

The good news, for you, is that the system is free.

You can get it here https://dailypunt.com/freelayingsystem

Today's selection

17:10 Wolverhampton Apparatchika – win bet – Evens Boylesports

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80% Strike Rate So Far This Year

Posted on January 26, 2015 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Last week I read an article on Geegeez website that blew my socks off.

So today I want to encourage you to read it.

The article is Matt Bisogno's review of the London Racing Club get together, which might sound like a dull report on some trainer or other being interviewed.

But it also includes some excellent insights that were shared by this months interviewees, who were the Hill family (Lawney et al…).

It includes the bones of a system that has seen 4 winners from 5 so far this year.

I know it's only January 26th, but even so there is some potential for a decent system based on Paul Nichols horses that wear headgear for the first time.

I've added this to my notebook for future research.

There's also a discussion about the use of tongue ties which could also lead to a profitable system with some further research.

Go and have a read and later in the week we'll see if we can boil this idea down into a system that we can use for the rest of the season.

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/

By the way if you are fed up with the Racing Post racecards and you want something faster and easier to digest try the Geegeez Gold racecards – Click Here

Today's selection comes from the Geegeez Shortlist report which is normally available to Gold members only, but on a Tuesday is available to all. (There are another 7 selections on this free report today – Click Here)

Today's Selection

Southwell 2:10 Abi Scarlett – win bet – 5/4 Will Hill

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Tag Archives: Wolverhampton

Tongue Tie Research

Headgear Racing System

Lay the Frogs

80% Strike Rate So Far This Year