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Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

Salisbury Trainer Trends

Today Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders Club takes a look at key trends for both jockeys and trainers at the Salisbury meeting.

Don't forget you can get free winning tips from the Betting School every weekend when you register on their site at http://betting-school.com.

Our Friday column was on the money last week with Nunthorpe winner Sole Power @7/2 and Ebor winner Mutual Regard @25/1. Hopefully a few of you were on. This week we take a look at Salisbury and some of the profitable trainers to make a note of. We also highlight a bang in-form trainer who looks worth following at Chester on Saturday.
First to Salisbury and standing head and shoulders above the rest is Lady Jane Cecil who continues the great work of her late husband. Since 2010 the Cecil yard has had 12 winners from 29 runners for a level stakes profit of £11.57 at the Wiltshire track. Most of the winners have come in non-handicap races and if we concentrate on their 3yo and 4yo non-handicap runners then the figures are 8-17 at a strike rate (SR) of 47% and a level stakes profit of £13.08. Six of their last nine runners at the track have won.

PD Evans has sent out the highest number of winners at the track with 19 in the last 5 seasons at a strike rate of 16%. That strike rate increases to 23% (12-52) in non-handicap races. If we take out his 2yo runners then he is 6-12 (SR 50%) and a level stakes profit of £30.50 with his older horses (3yo and 3yo+) in non-handicap races.

Finally, David Simcock does not send many runners to the track but in the last 5 seasons his non-handicap runners are 5-15 (SR 33.33%) and a level stakes profit of £8.98. Our top three trainers have no entries today but there are two more meetings in September so look out for their runners at the track in the next two weeks.

We have a great card at my local track Chester on Saturday and one trainer I want on-side is Andrew Balding. In the last 5 seasons he is 24-101 (SR 24%) and shows a healthy level stakes profit of £51.13. This season alone he is 8-18 (SR 44%) at the Roodee for a profit of £25.38. Balding and jockey Oisin Murphy have formed a tremendous partnership at the course in 2014, combining for 6 wins from 12 rides and a profit of £21.38. Andrew Balding has the following horses entered at Chester tomorrow:

2.20 Dungannon (5f handicap)
3.30 Whiplash Willie 1m 5f
4.40 Cosmic Ray (7f maiden)

Chester has the biggest draw bias of any course in the UK so we certainly want be drawn low for all races up to 7 ½ f. We have previously highlighted the fact Franny Norton rides Chester as well as anybody and he has a good book of rides on Saturday. They are B Fifty Two (2.20pm), Heavy Metal (2.55pm), Special Meaning (3.30pm), Enlace (4.05pm) and Sea Silk (4.40pm). B Fifty Two and Heavy Metal both look to have a decent chance which would be enhanced further by a nice, low draw.

On a final word, betting on trainer stats is a long term strategy that takes time and patience to reap the rewards. For example we highlighted William Haggas as a trainer to follow at York back in July. At the time of writing he had sent 11 runners to the track in 2014 and all 11 had lost. The following day he sent out two winners @4/1 and 9/2 and followed that up with 3 winners at the Ebor festival @12/1, 20/1 and 8/1.

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

5.10 Salisbury Lady Crossmar 11/4

York Trends and Selections

Following on from last week's very profitable column Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders is back with more pointers for York.

If you want to be involved with Nick's analysis of the Glorious Goodwood festival next week join Betting Insiders where he will be posting up his thoughts on the 5 day meeting.

http://bettinginsiders.com

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Our Kevin Ryan angle came up trumps last Friday at Hamilton with the heavily gambled Blaine winning @6/1 after being widely available at 16/1 in the morning.

Our Godolphin 2yo angle also hit the target with Efflorescence (13/2) and Good Place (4/1) finishing 1-2 at Newmarket (their only two 2yo’s entered at the course that weekend).

This week we are off to York and first stop is William Haggas who boasts a 22% strike rate at the course since 2010 and a level stakes profit of £21.84. However, it is his 3yo and 4yo handicappers who provide us with the most profit:

William Haggas (3yo and 4yo runners in handicap races at York since 2010)

William Haggas 3 - 4 yo in handicaps

He has the following entries in handicaps at York this weekend:

Muthmir – Saturday 3.30pm 6f Class 2 handicap (Skybet Dash) @11/2

Haggas is 0-5 at York this season with his 3yo and older handicappers. However, he is having a decent season with 62 winners from 240 runners (strike rate 25.83%) and has a 30% success rate with his 3 year olds (46-154).

Our second York trainer to follow is Ron Harris and he is certainly one for the each-way backers looking for bigger prices. Since 2010 he has had 5 winners from 26 runners in 3yo and older handicap races for a level stakes profit of £51.00. However, it is his place strike rate that makes most appeal at 53.85% (14-26) which boosts his level stakes profit to £89.75.

Ron Harris (3yo and older runners in handicap races at York since 2012)

Ron Harris (3yo and older runners in handicap races at York since 2012)

Ron Harris has the following handicap entries at York this weekend:

Vincentti @8/1 – Friday 6.30pm 6f handicap
Mr Dandy Man @12/1 – Friday 8.30pm 5f handicap

Finally, Brian Ellison does not have many winners at York managing just 10 since 2010. However, he does have a decent strike rate in apprentice races at the course (3-17) and has a decent chance in the opener on Friday with Top Of The Glas.

Megan Carberry takes the ride and takes off 3lbs which effectively means Top Of The Glas races off the same mark as when victorious on his stable debut.

Top Of The Glas @7/2 – Friday 6.00pm 1m apprentice handicap

If you want to be involved with Nick's analysis of the Glorious Goodwood festival next week join Betting Insiders where he will be posting up his thoughts on the 5 day meeting.

http://bettinginsiders.com

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