I'm still working on the well handicapped horses and am now looking at alternate angles that might reduce the number of qualifiers in a race and move them into profit.
In the meantime here is a round up of yesterday results at the early prices recorded.
All selections 63.5 points returned for 80 staked.
Those with biggest reduction in handicap mark from their winning mark 17.50 returned from 22 staked.
Course or distance or both winners 15 points returned for 26 staked.
I also looked at the Racing Post Dropping Down feature on their Sign Posts page in the paper. there were 13 horses that were on my list and in the Dropping Down list and they returned 13 points for 13 staked.
I don't really feel like I've found any significant additional factors yet and have started investigating specific trainers records with this well in horses.
It's early days with that research but so far I have 4 horses that have come out of my early research, they are…
Haydock 6.20 Rosselli – 7/2 Bet Victor, Bet Fred
Haydock 6.20 Tenhoo – 5/1 Stan James
Nottingham 5.45 Classic Voice – 20/1 Sky Bet, Stan James
Yarmouth 3.50 Soweto Star – 11/2 Bet Victor, Stan James
I'll keep researching and keep you posted.
Today's Selection
2.20 Newbury Pearl Spectre – win bet – 7/2 Bet365, Sky Bet
Good to see someone working hard on their selections since tweaking various angles I find my win/place ratio to have improved significantly. There are various angles to delve into butyou still have to make a decision on which horse will potentially win the race. Last week I had numerous 2nds beaten by a very short margin but so far this week we have been findimg the winners. Keep up the good work.
Regarfs John
Hi John.I found your Well Handicap Selection very interesting. Please keep me informed. WFDuesbury
Love this new angle on Handicaps researched all the races that you have emailed me and I have an angle that looks like it works significantly without being over complicated.
My research showed these results
Runners Wins Lost S/R% Profit
All Selections 101 9 92 8.91 -22.50
16/1 or less 61 9 52 14.75 +17.50
5/1 to 16/1 46 8 38 17.39 +28.50
Age 3-6 32 7 25 21.88 +36.00
As you can see adding in the 2 categories of SP and Age gives us a better indicator
I also then looked and the horses OR and found out that if we take out all horses running below their Lowest Winning OR we get an even better figure
Horses Running level or Above their Lowest Winning OR and Level or Below Highest OR
Runners wins lost S/R% Profit
17 7 10 41.18 +51.00 Points
All this is based on WIN ONLY not E//W
Example
Date Time Course Selection Odds W/L Age HOR LOR OR
11/6/13 17:35 Salisbury Haadeeth 10,00 L 6 77 63 64
11/6/13 18:30 Lingfield Cornish Beau (IRE) 15,00 W 6 67 55 55
12/6/13 16:10 Yarmouth Black Dave (IRE) 6,00 W 3 62 56 62
12/6/13 18:20 Hamilton Hab Reeh 10,00 W 5 58 49 52
So based on this the filters are
Handicap Races Only
Horses Priced 5/1 to 16/1
Ages 3 – 6
Running Level or Below Highest Winning OR
Running Level Or Above Lowest Winning OR
Hope this helps
Today’s selections I have found
15,00 Nottingham Colourbearer 12/1 Lost
15,00 Nottingham Prince Of Passion 7/1 Lost
15,00 Nottingham Reginald Claude 6/1 Lost
17,35 Newbury If I Were A Boy 11/2 Lost
17,35 Newbury Mazij 8/1
18,20 Haydock Elizabeth Coffee 16/1
20,50 Haydock Rusty Rocket 13/2
20,50 Haydock Song Of Parkes 12/1
20,50 Haydock Sulis Minerva 8/1
20,50 Haydock Wicked Wench 6/1
Today’s selections I have found
15,00 Nottingham Colourbearer 12/1 Lost
15,00 Nottingham Prince Of Passion 7/1 Lost
15,00 Nottingham Reginald Claude 6/1 Lost
17,35 Newbury If I Were A Boy 11/2
17,35 Newbury Mazij 8/1
18,20 Haydock Elizabeth Coffee 16/1
20,50 Haydock Rusty Rocket 13/2
20,50 Haydock Song Of Parkes 12/1
20,50 Haydock Sulis Minerva 8/1
20,50 Haydock Wicked Wench 6/1
Only 1 winner yesterday in Rusty Rocket but also had the 2nd and 3rd in the 20.50 which paid a nice F/C & T/C will look again today
Thanks David
Today’s Selections
16,00 M’Burgh Aleksander
16,10 York Ponty Acclaim
16,10 York Waseem Faris
16,45 York Mappin Time
16,45 York Trade Secret
17,35 M’Burgh Al Furat
17,35 M’Burgh Underwritten
18,20 Goodwood Starwatch
18,40 Chepstow Silvas Romana
19,15 Chepstow Swendab
19,15 Chepstow The Mongoose
19,50 Chepstow Tijori
20,55 Chepstow May Be Some Time
Only 1 winner again Tijori 9/1 this gave us a 3pt loss on the day loads of selections today will post shortly then do an analysis of the system to date
14,05 York Easy Terms
14,05 York Next Edition
14,40 York Classic Colori
14,40 York Ginger Jack
15,00 M’Burgh Activate
15,30 Sandown Monsieur Jamie
15,30 Sandown Sandfrankskipsgo
15,35 M’Burgh Stone Of Folca
15,50 York Body And Soul
16,10 M’Burgh Chookie Royale
16,10 M’Burgh Es Que Love
16,10 M’Burgh Xilerator
16,20 York Barren Brook
16,20 York Kalk Bay
16,45 Bath Belle Park
16,45 Bath Market Puzzle
17,10 M’Burgh Rawaafed
17,15 Bath Catalina’s Diamond
17,15 Bath Clear Praise
17,15 Bath Italian Tom
17,20 York Azzurra Du Caprio
17,20 York Mon Brav
17,20 York Waking Warrior
18,25 Lingfield Pharoah Jake
18,25 Lingfield Scommettitrice
18,55 Lingfield Wishforme
19,55 Lingfield Maison Brillet
20,25 Lingfield Cuthbert
20,25 Lingfield Seamster
20,25 Lingfield Spirit Of Gondree
20,25 Lingfield Zaheeb
20,35 Leicester Bajan Bear