Well Handicapped Three Year Olds

Today I want to tell you about a book that I like to buy at the start of each flat season that helps add some profit to my coffers each year.

Well Handicapped Three Year Olds is written by Jon Gibby who is a key contributor at the Betting School Insiders Club during the Flat season each year.

And what Jon does is to highlight and profile horses that he thinks are starting the season off of a lenient handicap mark.

Here's the cover blurb…

Jon Gibby has reviewed the form of this season's lightly raced three-year-olds and has identified 63 he considers to have been allotted potentially lenient official ratings.

The 2014 edition produced 55 winners and on average the handicap ratings of the horses listed rose by 5lbs over the course of the season (which shows that most of them had indeed been well-handicapped). The book selected several multiple winners such as: Serena Grae (4), Arab Dawn (3), Arabian Comet (3), Penhill (3), Right Of Appeal (3), Spectator (3) and Sir Guy Porteous (3).

Today I have two of the entries to share with you…

Rocky Rider

OR 80 (PR 86) 11.2f/11.7f

This lovely colt by Galileo (whose progeny progress well) cost 400,000gns as a yearling and he is bred to be very useful. He is related to four winners including the 113 rated Fantasia and the 105 rated Pink Symphony. Most of the dam’s other foals were fillies so it will be interesting to see how this colt performs and whether he will end up being the highest rated of the lot.

His trainer Andrew Balding awarded the colt four stars in Taplin’s book and had this to say about him: “He’s exactly as you would imagine him to be, just the most delightfully relaxed horse and a lovely make and shape. If you were ever going to spend that sort of money on a horse, then he looks like 400 grand’s worth.

A 3-y-o in the making, but those good horses should be running and winning at two if they’re going to be any good”.

He had two runs last year. He finished a ‘promising’ fourth of fourteen on his debut and caught the eye of the race reader in the process before following that up with a win against Magic Dancer at Windsor in October.

The race reader made the following observations: ‘A fair maiden, with the front pair pulling clear late on. Rocky Rider shaped with a good deal of promise on his debut at Haydock (when getting struck into) and got his head in front at the second time of asking despite not looking in love with the ground. He displayed a particularly pleasing attitude and should develop into a useful 3-y-o handicapper’.

It is encouraging that Magic Dancer went on to frank the form in style when winning his next race by 2½ lengths (beating a useful rival) and he is now rated 81.

Unsurprisingly, Rocky Rider is well entered up for some big races this year and it will be a shock if he doesn’t turn out to be much better than his current 80 rating.

His breeding suggests that 12f+ will prove ideal but he may have the speed to cope with 10f. The race reader at Windsor suggested that the colt was not comfortable on the soft ground he raced on there so good or faster ground should prove ideal.

Whether he takes the handicap route this season remains to be seen. ******

Rocky Rider reappeared last Thursday at Chelmsford and Won easily at 7/4 beating an odds on shot by 6 lengths!

One interesting one yet to run as a 3yo is…

Dunnscotia

OR 66 (PR 77) ?/8.1f

This gelding is by the excellent first season sire Showcasing, who has made a great start to his career at stud, and he is well-related on the dam side too.

He is trained by Paul Webber who is not associated with first time out winners so it was no surprise that Dunnscotia was sent off at 66/1 for his debut at Windsor in July.

He certainly belied those odds by running a race full of promise. He was drawn very wide (stall 14) but had enough early speed to overcome that disadvantage and to gradually move over to nearer the stands’ side. He continued to travel well for much of the race and with 2f to go most of the field was hard at work to keep up, whilst he remained on the bridle.

His lack of peak fitness began to tell in the closing stages and he weakened into 5th place (of 16).

With hindsight that effort looks even better because the winner Heartbreak Hero is now rated 102, the fourth is rated 80, the sixth is rated 104 and the seventh is rated 76.

The fact that he had most of those runners off the bridle and seemingly well beaten before tying up in the closing stages suggests that his current mark of 66 is a good one.

Next time out he was badly drawn at Sandown (drawn 10 of 11) and he raced wide throughout in a race dominated by those runners who raced closest to the far rail, so that run can be forgiven.

He had one more outing and that was in a 5f Bath maiden run on firm ground. He ran an OK race to finish third but I got the impression that he didn’t let himself down properly on the fast ground and he can do better when running on a more forgiving surface.

Showcasing’s progeny have so far shown a liking for soft ground and Dunnscotia has a bit of a knee action so he could be another who prefers some cut.

On the face of it his mark of 66 looks harsh (his best RPR is 61) but I think he showed enough on his debut to suggest that once race fit and with conditions to suit he can win races this year, particularly if he progresses in the same manner as his siblings.

He has plenty of speed so he should prove effective at sprint distances this season. Although he ran well on good/firm ground first time out at Windsor the track appeared to have been well watered that day and it was clearly more forgiving than the rock hard ground he subsequently encountered at Bath – he will be best suited by some cut in the ground. ***

You can get the other 61 three year olds to follow for just £7.99 at Amazon.co.uk

Today's Selection

Wolverhampton 4.35 Thomas Blossum – win bet – 11/4 Skybet