You're getting a double helping of Caroline this week, you lucky people, as her research into this article means there's a lot to read, and as such, she has broken it down into two pieces for you. First part today, and the second tomorrow. Hope you all enjoy it!

What makes a good NH sire?

Greetings all.

I hope you are well and continuing to survive the lockdown and consequent racing drought with as much equanimity as could be expected of anyone. There are plenty more memory lanes that I could wander down with regard to horses past, and no doubt I’ll do so in the weeks ahead. But for this week I thought we’d have a look at a more general subject of interest in the bloodstock sphere, prompted by a question from Tony Randall in the comments to my initial piece:

‘I have always wondered why some sires go on to produce great NH horses and some don’t. Any thoughts?’

Thanks Tony, and I agree this is an interesting one, with perhaps even greater vaguaries to challenge us than with Flat pedigrees. My thoughts on this are very much just one opinion; subjective and pretty unscientific! So read them in that spirit, and tomorrow I’ll share my entirely biased Ten To Follow amongst current National Hunt sires (or those marketed as such) and see if you agree with any of them. First of all, let’s consider the general subject though.

When I first started following racing and breeding in the 1980s, one sire was dominant when it came to jumpers: Deep Run. He was the perennial NH champion sire of that era, churning out a seemingly endless supply of winners, both numerically and in terms of top class performers. The latter included Dawn Run, Waterloo Boy, Run For Free and the Champion Hurdling-brothers Morley Street and Granville Again, to name but a few. I just accepted this at face value: Deep Run was Deep Run, a freak, in a league of his own. I didn’t give an awful lot of thought as to why. NH breeding was very much the poor relation to Flat, and of minor interest then – and it almost seems as if this was a wider-held view. The real money was to be made in breeding Flat horses, and success over obstacles was a random, unpredictable event, not especially valued in bloodstock terms. Perhaps this was because the vast majority of participants were geldings so had no future in breeding themselves. The mares’ programme was near non-existent compared to today, and the occasional successful mares like Dawn Run, Anaglogs Daughter or Glencarraig Lady were regarded as flukes. So, by nature of its participants, that influence of genes and traits being passed from one generation of racehorses to the next wasn’t nearly as direct or obvious as Flat breeding permits.

As Deep Run’s influence waned following his passing and, in due course, the lack of new stock coming through to race, his mantle was taken up by the likes of Strong Gale and Be My Native. All three of these champions covered large books of mares in their heyday, unlike the majority of their contemporaries, which surely helped them achieve their dominance. However, over the last 30 years or so, I would say that the whole sphere of NH breeding has become a lot more commercial, organised and competitive. Many colts are now finding a place as a stallion with the specific aim of breeding jumps horses from the outset, rather than this happening almost by accident for them, a second career if you like, when they lack successful Flat offspring and/or show early signs that their stock are adapting well to jumping. This is despite the fact that the vast majority of them have Flat racing pedigrees and didn’t go near a hurdle or fence themselves! Doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense, does it? These days stamina has become a dirty word when it comes to the Flat, I’m afraid, and no one wants to use those horses commercially who exhibit it. I could write a whole separate article on this subject alone, and the damage it is steadily wreaking on the Thoroughbred as a breed…but perhaps that’s one for another day.

So, given this background, how do you take the guesswork out of which NH stallions will be successful and which will fail? Leaving aside the opportunities they receive for a moment, I believe there are three major factors which a good sire of jumpers requires:

• Stamina
• Physique
• Pedigree

Let’s take a look at each of these and what, potentially, they contribute. Stamina is an obvious help in a NH sire, whose progeny will be required to run over distances considerably further than he was in most cases. If you look at the current leading NH sires’ list, the majority showed top class form over at least 1m 4f in their own Flat racing careers. Old Vic won an Irish Derby; Presenting, King’s Theatre and Walk In The Park were all placed at Epsom; Kayf Tara was an Ascot Gold Cup winner and this year’s champion sire, Milan, won the St Leger. With NH races requiring stamina to last from between 2m to over 4m, the more that your stallion can contribute in this department the better. Stamina is NOT a dirty word in my opinion! It doesn’t have to equate to being boat slow or lacking in class; it is a necessary component in any horse required to race over distance and we dismiss it at our peril.

Under physique we cover the overall make and shape of the stallion, as well as his soundness and constitution. In a nutshell you want big and strong, tough and hardy. He may have retired to stud at three or four years of age himself but his progeny will be expected to race at full maturity over a number of seasons. For that you want decent-sized horses of 16-17hh with good bone, or in other words not small or spindly types who will get outgrown and surpassed by others when they reach age five or six and are racing over hurdles or fences. There are limits, of course, as with everything. Many really big chasers, like Carvill’s Hill for example, are almost too big and can have physical problems or soundness issues resulting from the rigours of racing. Currently the gorgeous Topofthegame (best part of 18hh I believe) springs to mind of this ilk; let’s hope he can come back to his best after injury next season.

So you want your NH sire to throw good-sized, good-looking young stock, and the best hope of that is if he is good-sized and good-looking himself. It’s never a guarantee of course, and every mare he is paired with will contribute 50% of the resultant foal. But if you start with the sort of make and shape you want to produce as your sire, the chances of achieving the same must surely be boosted. Likewise I find it very reassuring if the stallion himself had a good racing career encompassing not only high class Pattern race form (preferably G1 level) but also longevity. For NH I am not too worried either way what they achieved as 2yos (since the earliest a horse can run over hurdles is halfway through his third year) but ideally more than one season of racing and/or a good number of runs to a high level is desirable. I want to see that strength and consistency demonstrated, along with a good attitude in a battle and a strong constitution for racing. All of these elements will be really important to transmit in his second career.

Finally there is pedigree of course, but for NH sires this is more to back up what the eye can see for itself, rather than standing alone. Genes that are prepotent have risen to the top for a reason though: they show you the horses (both male and female) who have already demonstrated their ability to pass on good traits and/or reproduce themselves in their offspring. You cannot just ignore strong bloodlines or you risk cutting off your own chance of success with them – think Sheikh Mohammed with Galileo all those years on the Flat!

That’s just a brief summary, without wading in too deeply. The other major factor in any sire’s success, as touched upon briefly earlier, comes down to opportunity: what chances is he given at stud? This means both in terms of quality and quantity when it comes to mares. The commercial market is very unforgiving of stallions who do not achieve early success and often writes them off far too quickly, especially when you consider it can take a good ten years from his retirement to get a representative sample of his progeny racing over obstacles to judge him by. Those sires afforded few chances at the outset but who nonetheless produce one or more high class jumpers are special indeed, and the rewards can come later in life for them. Sadly it is the nature of such a long game that some die before we know how good they are, or how great they could have been.

Back tomorrow with Part 2 on this subject: a look at my personal favourite top ten current NH sires.