Good morning all,
The Craven meeting continues today with two Group 3s: the bet365 Earl of Sefton Stakes (3.00) and the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes (3.35). In the latter contest C&D winner Saffron Beach takes on unbeaten filly Love Is You in a race which could provide punters with some 1,000 Guineas clues. There’s also the first of two days of competitive racing at Cheltenham.
Saturday’s two main meetings have been moved to Sunday as a mark of respect for Prince Philip who died on Friday aged 99. Which means the Coral Scottish Grand National at Ayr and the Newbury Guineas Trials at Newbury will now be run on Sunday. More on Sunday’s big races in tomorrow’s column.
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking at a handful of races at the Craven meeting. Plus, I have one for the tracker.
One For The Tracker
It’s not often that I dip into a Class 5 handicap for a tracker horse. However, I have made an exception today.
Copper And Five – Ruth Carr
The lightly raced 5-year-old had shaped with promise in handicaps last season and was unlucky not to land a Class 4 on his final start of 2020. He was far too keen on his return to action at Pontefract last Tuesday and did well to finish as close as he did in fifth. Will need a strong pace and some cover if he’s to take advantage of what looks a winnable mark.
Wednesday Racing
You can watch the best of the action from Newmarket’s Craven meeting and Cheltenham on ITV this afternoon. I have had a look at the three feature races at Newmarket.
Newmarket
2:25 – bet365 European Free Handicap (Listed Race) – 7f
Just seven go to post for the race but you can give them all some sort of chance. There doesn’t seem to be much pace in the race and likely favourite Naval Crown who made all to win at Meydan last time could get a solo out in front.
Aidan O’Brien brings over Ontario whose best run last year came when 2nd of 5 in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes here over a mile last September.
Percy’s Lad a winner of his first two juvenile starts put in a career best when runner-up in the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes at Newbury (heavy). Better ground should suit but 7f maybe on the short side given he’s bred to appreciate 1m 2f.
Legal Attack won on his racecourse debut on the July Course last season and wasn’t disgraced when runner-up in a Group 3 at Chantilly on his next start. Proved a major disappointment when a beaten favourite at York in October. If you forgive that run, he has potential for better this season.
3:00 – bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 1f
Global Giant, an easy winner of the Listed Magnolia Stakes at Kempton 18-days ago and is the one to beat. Marie’s Diamond made a winning return to action last season and he’s the only guaranteed front runner in the six strong field. He could be hard to peg back if getting an uncontested lead.
San Donato’s two best RPR’s have come first time up so a 207-day lay off isn’t necessarily a negative. In fact, I think it’s a positive for the strong travelling 5-year-old.
My Oberon could be open to more progressive this season. The 4-year-old was an easy winner at York last summer. He put in a career best effort’s on RPR’s when finishing runner-up in Group 3 contests at Goodwood & Haydock. Ran below par at Redcar (15/8 Fav) on his final start of the season and if you forget that run, he’s in the mix here.
3:35 – Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) – 7f
The bookies have got the betting right for this 1,000 Guineas trial. With the unbeaten fillies Saffron Beach and Love Is You heading the market.
Saffron Beach is 2-2 over C&D and showed a good battling attitude to win the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes last year. She’s reported to have thrived physically from two to three. If that’s the case she should be good enough to win this on her return. My idea of a lively outsider for the first fillies’ classic. I have had an each-way nibble on her at 20/1 for the 1,000 Guineas and the 16/1 available with Paddy Power remains value. She will be shorter, if she wins here.
Love Is You won the 7f Listed Radley Stakes at Newbury on her final juvenile start. It was heavy that day and good to soft when she made a winning racecourse debut at Ascot. There’s no reason why she won’t be effective on quicker ground. However, you don’t know until they have tried it. The daughter of Kingman had looked a smart prospect when winning at Newbury.
Tawahub is thrown in the deep end here. Another daughter of Kingman she looked useful when winning a Chelmsford in October. Look capable of winning more races as 3-year-old. However, he would need to have improved plenty over the winter to win today.
Wednesday selection:
An impressive win by Double Or Bubble at Newmarket yesterday. That's now two successive winning selections both at good prices. Will the winning run continue on Wednesday?
Newmarket
3:00 – San Donato – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John
John Burke is the tipster behind the long standing Victor Value service you can join him here – https://victorvalue.uk