Today we have Josh Wright's trends and analysis for tomorrow's Bet 365 Handicap Chase.
Ascot: 3.35 Bet365 Handicap Chase
14 renewals since 1998
128 runners, 36 placed horses
TRENDS
Previous Place
- Nothing significant
- Fell: 0/5, 0 places
Horse Age
- 14/14 Aged 4-10
- 11+ : 0/20, 4 places
Days Since Run
- Nothing significant
Horse Weight
- Nothing significant
Horse Official Rating
- 14/14 OR 143 or below
- 144+ : 0/27, 7 places…21% runners…19% placed horses
Season Runs
- Nothing significant
Position In Market
- 12/14 Top 4 in market
- 5th of lower: 2/69,11 places…14% winners…55% runners…31% places
Odds
- 13/14 12/1 or under
- 14/1+ : 1/45, 3 places
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –
- Clear/Joint Top and Clear Second Top: 1/25, 7 places…7% winners…20% runners…20% places
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H- Run (Hncp)
- 11/14… 0-9 Handicap runs in career
- 11/57, 24 places…79% winners…45% runners…67% places
H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)
- 9/14…0-5 handicap chase runs
- 9/49, 16 places…64% winners…39% runners…44% places
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (NH Race Type)
- 13/14 had 0-3 chase wins to name
- 13/82, 27 places…93% winners…65% runners…75% places
- 1/46, 9 places had 4+
H-Win (Hncp/Non)
- 14/14 Had 0-3 handicap wins
- 0/28, 7 places had 4+
H-Win (Hcap NH)
- 14/14 had 0-2 handicap chase wins
- 0/39, 8 places had 3+
Miscellaneous 2
Highest Class Win
- G1: 0/12, 2 places
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR) Hcap/Non
- Non-Handicap: 6/23, 10 places
(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst
- G1/G2/Listed LTO: 0/22, 2 places
Track LTO (of interest)
- Newbury: 2/8, 3 places
- Chepstow: 2/8, 3 places
- Chelt: 2/26, 8 places
- Exeter: 2/2
- Ascot: 1/21, 3 places
- Others with one win: Wicanton/Ayr/Market R/Kempton/Haydock
- Huntingdon: 0/5, 0 places
- Wetherby: 0/8, 1 place
Trainers (of interest)
- P Nicholls: 3/9, 6 places
- R Rowe: 2/3,2 places
- 1 win each: Buckler/D McCain Jnr/R Lee/
‘The Winning Profile’
In truth having gone through the trends and those entered at present, the trends/stats are not overly helpful. There is one stat that does help create a shortlist but that always makes me a bit wary…
The older horses have generally struggled so we can remove the two still in here aged 11 or older. 0-2 handicap chase wins looks important, but with so many unexposed ones entered that doesn’t help too much either! In fact that just helps remove Bennys Mist.
As yet there hasn’t been a winner with an OR of 144 or higher. If we did just focus on those that would leave:
Doing Fine / Bernardelli/Aerlite Supreme /Minella Reception / Tara Road.
Maybe the winner will be coming from that shortlist. I am hesitant about the ratings stat as those with OR144+ have placed the number of times you would expect, given the number of runners. I suspect this trend may well be broken at some point and it is a small sample. But, maybe it is significant.
Those that raced at Listed level LTO don’t have the best record, albeit again from small numbers like a lot of these pointers. That would remove Doing Fine leaving 4. Only one has a jockey booked at the moment. Minella Reception looks interesting at this stage but his trainer’s record at the track is a big negative I think. In the last 5 seasons NTD is 3/57 with all runners at Ascot.
A few things to ponder. I will be back as usual on Saturday with a final selection, following the final decs and some more considered though.
Josh
Today's Selection
3.05 Lingfield – Mr Bossy Boots – eachway bet 7/1 Bet365