Today we have Josh Wright's trends and analysis for tomorrow's Bet 365 Handicap Chase.

Ascot: 3.35 Bet365 Handicap Chase

14 renewals since 1998

128 runners, 36 placed horses

TRENDS

Previous Place

• Nothing significant
  • Fell: 0/5, 0 places

Horse Age

• 14/14 Aged 4-10
  • 11+ : 0/20, 4 places

Days Since Run

• Nothing significant

Horse Weight

• Nothing significant

Horse Official Rating

• 14/14 OR 143 or below
  • 144+ : 0/27, 7 places…21% runners…19% placed horses

Season Runs

• Nothing significant

Position In Market

• 12/14 Top 4 in market
  • 5^th of lower: 2/69,11 places…14% winners…55% runners…31% places

Odds

• 13/14 12/1 or under
  • 14/1+ : 1/45, 3 places

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

• Clear/Joint Top and Clear Second Top: 1/25, 7 places…7% winners…20% runners…20% places

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H- Run (Hncp)

• 11/14… 0-9 Handicap runs in career
  • 11/57, 24 places…79% winners…45% runners…67% places

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)

• 9/14…0-5 handicap chase runs
  • 9/49, 16 places…64% winners…39% runners…44% places

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (NH Race Type)

• 13/14 had 0-3 chase wins to name
  • 13/82, 27 places…93% winners…65% runners…75% places
  • 1/46, 9 places had 4+

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

• 14/14 Had 0-3 handicap wins
  • 0/28, 7 places had 4+

H-Win (Hcap NH)

• 14/14 had 0-2 handicap chase wins
  • 0/39, 8 places had 3+

Miscellaneous 2

Highest Class Win

• G1: 0/12, 2 places

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR) Hcap/Non

• Non-Handicap: 6/23, 10 places

(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

• G1/G2/Listed LTO: 0/22, 2 places

Track LTO (of interest)

• Newbury: 2/8, 3 places
• Chepstow: 2/8, 3 places
• Chelt: 2/26, 8 places
• Exeter: 2/2
• Ascot: 1/21, 3 places
• Others with one win: Wicanton/Ayr/Market R/Kempton/Haydock
• Huntingdon: 0/5, 0 places
• Wetherby: 0/8, 1 place

Trainers (of interest)

• P Nicholls: 3/9, 6 places
• R Rowe: 2/3,2 places
• 1 win each: Buckler/D McCain Jnr/R Lee/

‘The Winning Profile’

In truth having gone through the trends and those entered at present, the trends/stats are not overly helpful. There is one stat that does help create a shortlist but that always makes me a bit wary…

The older horses have generally struggled so we can remove the two still in here aged 11 or older. 0-2 handicap chase wins looks important, but with so many unexposed ones entered that doesn’t help too much either! In fact that just helps remove Bennys Mist.

As yet there hasn’t been a winner with an OR of 144 or higher. If we did just focus on those that would leave:

Doing Fine / Bernardelli/Aerlite Supreme /Minella Reception / Tara Road.

Maybe the winner will be coming from that shortlist. I am hesitant about the ratings stat as those with OR144+ have placed the number of times you would expect, given the number of runners. I suspect this trend may well be broken at some point and it is a small sample. But, maybe it is significant.

Those that raced at Listed level LTO don’t have the best record, albeit again from small numbers like a lot of these pointers. That would remove Doing Fine leaving 4. Only one has a jockey booked at the moment. Minella Reception looks interesting at this stage but his trainer’s record at the track is a big negative I think. In the last 5 seasons NTD is 3/57 with all runners at Ascot.

A few things to ponder. I will be back as usual on Saturday with a final selection, following the final decs and some more considered though.

Josh

www.racingtoprofit.co.uk

Today's Selection

3.05 Lingfield – Mr Bossy Boots – eachway bet 7/1 Bet365