I don't know what percentage of the articles on this site are about value betting, but I'm guessing it's quite high. I make no excuses for that because the fact is value is everything if you want to win.
Today I've been prompted to write about value betting by a bet I had last week.
In the early days of following Carl I would have shied away from having my full stake on a 50/1 shot, but I've learned that they can win and that if any one can pick them at these prices then Carl is that man. (Carl had a 50/1 winner at the end of the last flat season)
So the first thing I did was to get my bet on and secure my price. Step two in my thought process was how the heck did he pick this and why. So I took a close look at Cool Friend.
What I found was that Cool Friend had won at Aintree, which was where it was running today, and had won over a 9lb higher mark and today it was also getting a 7lb mares allowance.
So essentially this horse was well in and a contender but for some reason it was priced at 50/1.
Now that is a value bet.
And that is today's message, don't look for nailed on winners, look for horses that can win given the breaks but that are priced so big, at such a value price, that should it win that it will pay for a lot of losers.
I don't know what true odds Carl assessed this mare to be but I would guess around 16/1, if you can get 50/1 on a 16/1 chance then you should be betting these as often as you can.
Did it win?
Amazingly Cool Friend started at 33/1 and was beaten by a neck into second on the line by a 100/1 shot. It was still a great return but could've been a big big win.
It's been a good week for Value Backing followers with an 18/1 winner yesterday and a 20/1 winner last Monday.
Kelso 3.30 Jack the Gent – eachway bet – 9/2 Bet 365