Hi all,

Usually, on Wednesdays, I would be focusing on the upcoming weekend's big races. However, with Aintree's Grand National Festival commencing on Thursday, I've decided to offer a preview of the meeting from a stats perspective.

Aintree Grand National Festival

Going & Weather Update

We've experienced one of the wettest winters on record, and this spring hasn't been much drier. As of Monday lunchtime, the going description at Aintree was soft, with areas of heavy ground on the National Course. Forecasts suggest more rain is on the way until Thursday, with an additional 14mm predicted. It's highly likely that the meeting will commence on heavy ground. However, starting from Thursday, the forecast indicates mostly dry weather, and as we've seen in the past, Aintree has the capacity to dry out rapidly with sunshine and a breeze. If the dry conditions persist, we could improve the going description by Saturday. Conversely, given the high-water table, even a small amount of rain during the meeting could revert the ground back to soft. Given the unpredictable weather patterns in Britain, the best approach is to monitor the weather on a day-by-day basis.

Trends & Stats

As always, let's delve into some trends and statistics for the upcoming Aintree Grand National Festival. To kick things off, I'll provide an overview of how last time out winners at the Cheltenham fared before focusing on trainers and jockeys.

Last Time Out Winners at the Cheltenham Festival

Let's establish a baseline by examining the performance of horses that competed at the Cheltenham Festival before participating at Aintree.

With the baseline established we can begin to look for improvements in performance by LTO winners.

As illustrated, horses that were last time out winners at the Cheltenham Festival have performed well, yielding profits at both Industry SP and Betfair SP. This outcome exceeds my initial expectations. While these statistics serve as a solid starting point, for those seeking additional insights, a potential angle is to narrow the focus to qualifiers who had previously won at Aintree. This refined approach could offer further refinement and potentially enhance the profitability of selections.

Trainers:

Let’s closely examine some of the most successful trainers at this meeting since 2017 to find some profitable angles.

Firstly, here’s the leaderboard with trainers with five or more winners.

Nicky Henderson

Despite a challenging Cheltenham Festival, Nicky Henderson has historically performed well at the Grand National Festival. If Henderson manages to restore his horses to their peak form for the upcoming meeting, focusing on his runners with the following traits could prove to be a profitable angle:

Race Type: Non Handicaps

Odds SP: 5/1 & under

Last Race Grade: Grade 1.

Breaking those results by year:

While this approach may not yield significant profits, it has certainly produced a fair share of winners, and its implementation won't pose a threat to the stability of the betting bank. However, it's crucial to consider that the effectiveness of this strategy heavily relies on the overall health and form of Henderson's yard.

Paul Nicholls

Eleven winners for Nicholls are a decent haul given how competitive the Grand National Festival has become. However, it’s not easy to find a profitable angle for the trainer.

However, it’s worth noting his runners returned 14/1 & bigger are 0 winners from 45 runners.

Gordon Elliott

The Elliott figures are already promising value wise with the A/E=1.30 and he clearly has his horses ready for the meeting. Seven of Elliott’s 10 winners have come in hurdle races.

That's an impressive record, but for those looking to refine their approach further, focusing on hurdle races where Elliott fields only one runner could pay dividends. In such instances, there have been 6 winners from 17 runners 35% +33.5, 9 placed 53%.

Willie Mullins

Willie Mullins’ rivals but be happy that he hasn’t tended to target this meeting with his best horses. That could of course change slightly this year as he might go for the British Trainers Championship.  Again, not an easy trainer to find a profitable angle as his runners can be overbet. Looking at his seven winners, five of them have come in chases and all five were returned 10/1 & under.

A 67% win & place strike rate shows backers have got a good run for their money. Backing above qualifiers each way would have resulted in a profit of +20.71.

The market has clearly been an accurate guide to his runner's chance. Indeed, in all races he’s 0 winners from 30 runners with horses returned 9/1 & bigger.

Dan Skelton

Dan Skelton enjoyed a memorable Cheltenham Festival with four winners. The question now is whether he can replicate that success at Aintree.

While Skelton's record of six winners at the meeting is commendable, it's important to exercise caution and not back his runners blindly. In fact, if one had done so, they would have incurred a loss of £50.25 to a £1 level stake.

In races run below 2m 4f, Skelton has had 28 runners yielding no winners and only 2 placed finishes.

The market has proven to be an accurate indicator of his runners' chances, as Skelton has had 0 winners from 48 runners priced at 12/1 or bigger, with only 7 placed finishes.

All six of the Skelton winners came from the following.

With a 52% win & place strike rate you could have backed his runners each way and made +20.62.

Lucinda Russell

Pound for pound, Lucinda Russell has been the top-performing trainer at the Aintree Grand National Festival since 2017, boasting an impressive tally of five winners from 16 runners with another three placing.

Two of those successes have come in the Grand National – One For Arthur (2017) and Corach Rambler (2023). Her other three wins have come in Grade 1 races with form figures of 11321. Given those impressive stats it’s essential to pay close attention to all of her runners at the meeting, particularly in the Grade 1 contests.

Jockeys:

Finally, a look at the jockeys. The top five jockey’s, still riding, numerically are:

Harry Cobden

Seven of Harry Cobden’s winners have come when teaming up with Paul Nicholls – 7 winners from 21 runners 33% +10.41, 12 placed 57%.

For comparison those horses returned 7/1 & bigger have produced 0 winners from 31 runners, 5 placed.

Nico De Boinville

All eight of Nico De Boinville’s wins have come when combining with Nicky Henderson but if you had backed them all you would have lost £36.94 to a £1 level stake. The market has been a good ride guide to the winning chances of the combination.

Mark Walsh

Some may find it surprising to see Mark Walsh so high up the jockey standings, but I think he’s a good horseman and it’s worth noting his rides at the meeting.

We can further tighten up that already impressive strike rate by concentrating on his rides in Grade 1 contests.

7 winners from 14 rides 50% +26.71, 12 placed 88% (+35.19 each way).

Harry Skelton

If brother Dan is having a good meeting so will Harry. I have already covered Dan’s record in the trainers section above.

A +3.75 profit to a £1 level stake is hardly earth shattering but the profits were further increased when backing those qualifiers each way (+21.22).

Rachel Blackmore

Rachel Blackmore became the first woman jockey to win the Grand National in 2021 and with four other winners at the meeting you need to keep her mounts onside.

All five of her winners have come on horses returned 14/1 & less.

And four of her five winners were in combination with trainer Henry De Bromhead.

Finally, if you’re a Jack Kennedy follower all four of his successes at the meeting have come in hurdle races and all of them were beaten 10+ lengths on their latest start.

Backing the qualifiers each way increased the profit to +49.64.

I hope the statistics shared above have been informative for you. My wish is that they will help you emerge successful over the three days. If you want my Aintree race previews and selections you can get them here for just £7.

Wednesday Selection:

The best of Wednesday action is at Leopardstown where the feature race is the Listed Heritage Stakes (3.15). The going at Leopardstown is heavy but hopefully the meeting will survive a morning inspection.  I’ve had look at the card and to be honest nothing really caught my eye.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John