Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece you can read my thoughts on the upcoming weekend’s big race action.

It’s the start of a new month and meteorologically the start of Spring.

The 2023 Cheltenham Festival is now just 13-days away. And with all the talk of ante post portfolios its seems I missed out this winter. I have had just two Cheltenham ante post bets and one of those has already crashed and burned.

I’m going into this year’s festival with a clean slate compared to previous season. However, having looked at some of the Championship races yesterday. I could, even at this late stage, be tempted in.

The going at Cheltenham is the concern. The long ranger forecast suggests there isn’t going to be significant rain between now and the start of the meeting.

Clerk of the course Jon Pullin has already put down 30mm of water and the watering is going to continue. I suspect another 30mm maybe more will be put down before the tapes go up on the Supreme Novices Hurdle. We just don’t know the exact figure. But we do know they won’t want to start the meeting on good ground.

Looking ahead to the weekend – Part 1

It’s that Saturday in calendar when Kelso is the feature meeting and hosts the most valuable race of the day. The bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (1:50) has £51,440 on offer to the winner. Twenty six were left in this handicap at Monday’s final confirmation stage.

ITV are covering five races from Kelso live and two from Newbury including the BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (2:35). The race has £60,000 in guaranteed prize money but just 11 were left in the race on Monday. Two further races from Doncaster completes ITV’s coverage on Saturday afternoon.

Kelso: Bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (A Handicap Hurdle) – 2m

The going at Kelso is being described as good to soft. Showers have been forecast for the next couple of days but any rainfall is likely to be light. It’s set to be sunny and dry on Friday & Saturday so I’m not expecting the ground to be any worse than good to soft come race day.

The Morebattle Hurdle became a handicap only two years when its was won by the Emmet Mullins trained The Shunter.

The Shunter went onto win a race at the Cheltenham Festival which meant he won £100,000 bonus for winning the Morebattle and going onto success at Cheltenham.  That bonus is on offer to this year’s winner.

The change in the races status has had a positive impact on the number of runners. The previous ten renewals of the race had since an average field size of five runners.  Early days but the change in the race to a handicap has seen the average field size double. Fingers crossed we get 10+ runners for this year’s race.

No need to bother with looking at the race trends, as there just aren’t enough of them.  Moving straight onto the contenders and I have nine on my initial shortlist.

Emmet Mulllns seems likely to bring over juvenile McTigue. As a juvenile he gets a handy 10lb weight allowance from his older rivals. The bookies are likely to be taking no chances with the 4-year-old given connections. Likely on a good mark and must be respected.

Last year’s winner Cormier has been over fences on his last two starts. However, he’s only 2lb higher than 12 months ago and another big run could be forthcoming.

More contenders…

Sam Thomas saddled last Saturday’s big race winner and he could land another one with Deere Mark.  The 6-year-old made it 2-4 over hurdles when winning on handicap debut at Kempton last month. Looked an improver at Kempton but if top-weight Colonel Mustard runs he would be 6lb out of the weights. Missed the Betfair Hurdle due to quick ground at Newbury.

Colonel Mustard hasn’t run in a handicap since finishing a 3 length 3^rd of 26 to State Man in last season’s Country Hurdle. He’s run over fences on two starts this season, but he looks like a horse who has a good handicap pot in him.

Teddy Blue was back to form when a 12 length 3rd of 16 in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last time. Can pull hard which would be a worry if they don’t go a good gallop.

Hardy Du Seuil was strong at the finish when winning at Sandown (2m) last time.  Up just 4lb but he should go well. It was soft at Sandown so he might need more of a stamina test.

L'Eau Du Sud is Dan Skelton’s sole entry. The 5-year-old twice a winner in France built on the promise of his stable debut when a 3 ¼ length 3^rd of 14 at Kempton (soft) last time. Good ground asks another question of him, but he looks set to give a good account if handling it.

Onemorefortheroad is well treated on last season’s best form, but he’s run badly on his last two starts.

Irish challenger Wajaaha put in an improved performance when a 5 length 2^nd of 18 at Naas on Sunday. This would be a quick turnaround, but he couldn’t be totally discounted if running.

Morebattle Hurdle Verdict:

McTigue is a hard one to weight up but given his connections you must have him on the shortlist.  There’s been early money around for top-weight Colonel Mustard and now L'Eau Du Sud. The latter is very much on my radar. He’s as short as 9/2 with Sky Bet but a backable 7/1 with Coral. I also like Hardy Du Seuil but 2m on better ground maybe on the short side for him. The ground would also be concern for Deere Mark who would be of interest on an easier surface. Last year's winner Cormier is another to respect. However, so far, I have just taken the 7/1 about L'Eau Du Sud but will add another selection once final declarations are out.

Wednesday racing

Musselburgh and Wincanton provide today’s jumps action. There’s also an all-weather card at Lingfield this afternoon and an evening one at Kempton.

Wincanton

One of main fancies Hardy Boy is now a non-runner in the 2m 5f handicap hurdle (4:15)

3:45 – Top-weight Cap Du Mathan hasn’t gone up in the weights after beating three rivals in novice chase at Exeter 17-days ago. He jumped well that day, likes good ground and has a favourites chance. His biggest rival looks to be Any News who was back to something like his best when a 1 ½ length 3^rd of 5 at Kempton last month and gets the application of the first time cheekpieces.

Musselburgh

2:50 – Storm Tiger is an eight race maiden but there was plenty of encouragement to be taken from his 1½ lengths 2nd of 9 to Ardera Cross (went in again this week) on his chase debut 15-days ago. He can win races over fences but at 11/10 I can’t him up as selection here.

Lingfield

2:30 – Expert Agent looked much improved when beating 7 rivals at Kempton last time. Got an 8lb hike in the weights for that success but that may stop him following up. However, I have slight preference for Beautiful Sunrise who returned from an 8 month lay off and gelding operation with an improved effort when a 2 length 2nd of 10 at Kempton 25-days ago. He might just have needed it last time and if he’s progressed looks on a winnable mark.

Kempton

7:30 – Tomahawk King a winner at Wolverhampton in October wasn’t ideally placed when a staying on 3 ¾ lengths 5th of 9 on handicap debut here (7f) last time. This evening’s extra furlong should be fine, but he probably wouldn’t want the race to get tactical.

Wednesday selection:

I pretty much got yesterday’s Southwell races right. James Tate had the first two in the 6:30 with the biggest priced of his runners Regal Empire (5/1) making all to win. One my golden rules this year is if I fancy one and the yard has two in the race I will back both.  As for the mile handicap (7:00) I picked the wrong one. However. as I said in the race preview. At the early prices you could have backed four and still made small profit on the race.  

Storm Tiger is too short as is Cap Du Mathan but the latter would be of interest if he drifted out to 5/2..That leaves me with Beautiful Sunrise and Tomahawk King, and I have gone with the former.

Lingfield

2:30 – Beautiful Sunrise – 11/4 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John