Hi all,

Final Cheltenham Festival thoughts inside today’s main piece.

I apologize for not sending out yesterday's preview. It was ready to go, but due to being extremely busy, I completely forgot to post it.

British Dominate Irish on Day 3

The opening race witnessed a fiercely contested battle, as Grey Destiny narrowly edged out Ginny's Destiny to clinch victory in the Grade 1 Turners Novices Chase. It marked another triumph for Dan Skelton, with British-trained horses securing a rare 1-2 finish.

The Skelton duo continued their winning streak later on the card, with Protektorat securing an impressive victory in a competitive Ryanair Chase, catapulting them into Cheltenham Festival dreamland.

Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy celebrated victory in the Stayers Hurdle with short-priced favourite Teahupoo. Kennedy's astute ride guided the 7-year-old to success, confirming the trainer's wisdom of keeping him fresh for this race.

The Jeremy Scott trained mare Golden Ace saw off Irish talking horse Brighterdaysahead to win the Mares Novices Hurdle. Although I didn't offer a specific selection for the race as I focused on handicaps, I mentioned in my analysis for Victor Value subscribers that Golden Ace was worthy of her place in the lineup and had each way chance.

Despite gloomy forecasts, the British remain in contention for the Prestbury Cup going into the final day. However, they face the daunting task of securing six victories on Friday to clinch the title. Realistically, that outcome seems unlikely.

I’m heading into the final day in front, but Friday's races look challenging and things may have changed come the end of the day.

Cheltenham Festival – Day 4

The highlight of the final day of the festival is of course the Cheltenham Gold Cup.The race remains the one all jump connections would like to win. Will the Irish domination of the race continue? This year’s renewal looks a cracker on paper if all the main protagonist's line up.

Friday is also traditionally the toughest day for punters. Since 2017 favourites have won 36% of the races on Wednesday but on Friday that figure drops to 22%.

Here are some trends for the five live races on ITV.

Cheltenham Festival – Day 4

1:30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 1

Clear Favourites in the Triumph are 5 winners from 10 runners +6.88 that’s good news for Sir Gino backers.  However, three winners were also returned at double figure odds.

Nine of the last ten winners finished first or second last time out but if you had backed them all you would have lost £19.62 to a £1 level stake. More promisingly those who ran in a Grade 1 last time out but didn’t win (finished 2^nd, 3^rd or 4^th) are 5 winners from 19 runners +43.88, 8 placed since 2008.

Seven of the last 10 winners were saddled by Willie Mullins (3), Gordon Elliott (2) and Nicky Henderson (2).

2:10 – County Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – 2m 1f

Seven of the last ten winners were ages five or six.

Eight of the last ten winners were trained by Willie Mullins (4) and Dan Skelton (4). If you backed all their 55 qualifiers you would have made a £92.25 profit to a £1 level stake.

2:50 – Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m

A race that can often be a placepot buster and a good Grade 1 race to find a juicy priced winner.

No winning favourites of the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle in the last ten years and just two of them have placed.  Nine of the last winners were returned between 11/1 & 50/1. You could have backed all 97 qualifiers and made a £119.00 profit to a £1 level stake.

Eight of the last ten winners were ages 7 or 8.

Nine of the last ten winners had finished in the first three on their latest start. Of those LTO winners are 4 winners from 101 bets -47, 14 placed with an A/E= 0.45. Those who finished second or third LTO are 5 winners from 37 runners +116, 11 placed with an A/E=2.45.  You can quickly see who the under-bet horses are.

3:30 – Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 2 ½ f

Favourites are 4 winners from 10 bets +3.96, 6 placed in the past ten years.

Eight of the last nine winners had won two of their last three races.

Nine of the last winners of the Gold Cup were returned 12/1 or shorter.

All ten winners were ages 7 to 9.

Nine of the last ten winners had an Official Rating 164 or higher.

Willie Mullins has won the Gold Cup three times since 2019 from 2010 to 2018 he was 0 winners 16 runners, 5 placed in the race.

All the last 16 winners had won a Grade 1 race and all 16 had previously run at Cheltenham.

4:10 – St. James's Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase – 3m 2 ½ f

Ten year-old’s have won six of the last ten renewals of the race – 6 winners from 47 runners +130.63, 12 placed with the A/E=1.86.  Nine of the last ten winners were aged 10 or 11.

Favourites are 3 winners from 10 runners -0.24, 6 placed. But five winners were returned between 16/1 & 66/1.

Eight of the last ten winners had won between 2m 7f and 3m 2 ½ f.

There have been a number of repeat winners of this race, with Salsify, On The Fringe and Pacha Du Polder enjoying back-to-back success since 2012.

Cheltenham Placepot

If you’re having a go at Friday’s placepot here are some suggestions for Day 4.

1:30 – Salver and Bunting

2:10 – L'Eau Du Sud, So Scottish and Zenta

2:50 – Captain Teague, The Jukebox Man and Lecky Watson

3:30 – Galopin Des Champs & Gentlemansgame

4:10 – Ferns Lock & Sine Nomine

4:50 – Limerick Lace.

Well, that’s it, another Cheltenham Festival has come and gone.

Best of luck on Day 4.

John