Hi all,

Inside today’s min piece I continue my look ahead to the weekend’s big race action. Plus, I have some interesting Cheltenham Festival stats for you.

In yesterday’s column I previewed Kelso’s Morebattle Hurdle. Today I turn my attention to Saturday’s Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (2:45) at Newbury.

Looking ahead to the weekend – Part 2

Newbury BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase

The quick ground means that just 11 have been declared for this valuable handicap chase. I’m not sure if trainers are aware that Newbury can begin watering again. They will be turning the taps and there won’t be any firm in the going description that’s for sure.

Before looking at some of the contenders for this years race. Here’s a quick delve into the race trend which contain 13 winners from 152 runners 39 placed.

It’s a race that will have the trends guys salivating as there are several strong trends. Here are two of them.

Age: 6yo to 8yo – 12 winners from 81 runners +28.33 24 placed.

Trainer: Paul Nicholls – 8 winners from 27 runners +48.83 11 placed – Nicholls is 8 winners from 18 runners +57.83 10 placed with his runners aged six to eight.

Contenders

The highlight of this year’s race could be the clash of Newbury specialists Paint The Dream and Zanza.

Paint The Dream won last year’s race and is 3-3 here over fences. No match for Pic D’Orhy when 3^rd of 6 in a Grade 2 at Kempton in January. The top-weight is just 4lb higher than when comfortably winning over C&D in November.

Zanza made it 5-6 at Newbury when winning the Grade 2 Denman Chase (2m 7 ½ f) here last month. He’s 15lb higher than when winning last time but should give his running again at a venue he goes so well at.

Given the pair’s record around here it’s not surprising they are vying for favouritism at the head of the ante post betting.

Paul Nicholls has just one entry in this year’s race Espoir De Guye who will be making his stable debut after a switch from Venetia Williams. You can never dismiss a Nicholls runner in a race he has farmed in the past. However, Espoir De Guye is a 9-year-old which is a bit off putting.

More for the shortlist…

Just four entries in this year’s race meet the age trend: Gemirande, War Lord, Lord Baddesley and Neon Moon.

Gemirande had War Lord 5 ½ lengths back in second when winning at Wetherby last month. The latter, a high class novice chaser last season, would get a 7lb pull in the weights here. That said on good ground I can see Gemirande, who’s not finished out of the first 3 on his last 7 starts, confirming form.

Lord Baddesley was well backed when getting off the mark at the fourth attempt over fences at Plumpton last month.  Has a 6lb rise in the weights, in a better race, to contend with but his jumping was good last time and he’s going the right way.

David Pipe saddled Umbrigado to win this in 2021 and he could saddle Neon Moon who has finished runner-up on his last two starts. It was a career best from the 7-year-old when a 7 length 2^nd of 14 to Cap Du Nord at Ascot 14-days ago.  A five race maiden over fences, a first win over fences shouldn’t be far away.

Sebastopol gained a fourth success over fences when winning a Grade 2 Novices’ Chase over C&D in November. Not been seen since but it was good ground when he won here last time and so the ground won’t hold any terrors for the 9-year-old.

The Big Bite was on a going day when a 2 ¾ length 3^rd of 14 in this race two years ago (11lb higher). He was also an excellent 1 length 2^nd of 7 to Funambule Sivola at Doncaster last January. Nowhere near his best on two starts this season but good ground suits and he’s well handicapped. 

Cheltenham Festival Countdown

My Cheltenham Festival countdown begins today with a handful of interesting stats from horseracebase.com.

The first of the stats looks at horses who won at the Dublin Racing Festival prior to coming to Cheltenham.

Six of the 13 winners came courtesy of Willie Mullins

My second stat came from me looking back at last year’s Cheltenham Festival.  You would expect class to come out on top at Festival like Cheltenham.  So, I looked to see how the top two on official ratings fared in each race and here’s what I found.

Lo and behold the cream did rise to the top 12 month ago.  The top two on Official Ratings won 17 of the 29 races at last year’s festival.

Breaking it down by non-handicap and handicap races:

All the profit came in the handicap races. However, you could have boosted up the profit from the non-handicap qualifiers by focusing on those 4/1 & under.

A 52% win strike rate isn’t something to be sniffed at and the qualifiers landed 15 of the 19 non-handicap races last year’s festival.  It will be interesting to see how they fare in 2023.

The final one is a negative if you like to lump on the odds on shots. At the past five festivals there have been 26 odds on favourites.

Obviously, they win their fair share of races but look at the A/E stat. There is one caveat to those stats.

Last year odds on favourites produced – 3 winners from 5 runners 60% +0.03 and it would have been four if Galopin Des Champs hadn’t have fallen at the last when well clear.

There are worthy odds on shots, but the majority haven’t been.

There will be more Cheltenham Festival thoughts in Fridays’ column and all next week.

Thursday racing

Ludlow, Taunton and Clonmelprovide Thursday’s jumps action. There’s also an all-weather card at Newcastle and one under lights at Chelmsford this evening.

I considered looking at this afternoon’s Clonmel card and quickly decided not to bother. Instead I’m off to Ludlow for today’s preview.

Ludlow

3:00 – Forbra Gold Cup (Sponsored By Flowfit) Handicap Chase – 3m

Just the six for the Ludlow feature. Hidden Heroics made it 2-2 over fence when winning at Cheltenham. Already a much better chaser than hurdler. He’s well suited to a sound surface and is open to further improvement. The one to beat in his hat trick bid.

Java Point won this race last year and the followed up at Newbury (2lb lower). Ran well on his first two starts this season but was below par last time in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster last time. This is a drop in class for the 8-year-old, but he faces a progressive sort in Hidden Heroics.

Quoi De Neuf took advantage of a drop in class to win a handicap hurdle (2m 5f) here last month. Back over the larger obstacles and on a decent mark if staying today’s 3m trip. Ground looks ideal as all his three career wins have come on good ground.

Fuji Flight hit form at this time last year winning at Hereford and Newbury. Back to form effort when a 11 length 3^rd of 12 to Guetapan Collonges in a better race at Uttoxeter last month. He looked a hard ride that day but was doing his best work at the finish. Down to his last winning mark and not ruled out for a trainer who won this in 2013 & 2017.

Best of the rest of the Ludlow card…

2:25 – Flying Nun relished the quick ground when winning at Newbury 11-days ago. Has a 7lb to carry for her latest success but should go well again.

Anthony Honeyball won this in 2020 and he’s 4-10 40% + 39.50 with his runners here in the past 5-years. He saddles Ucanaver. The mare didn’t take to fences on her first two starts this season but was back to form over hurdles last time when a neck 2^nd of 5 at Southwell in December. On a competitive mark for an inform yard.

3:35 – Born at Midnight was backto form returned to a sounder surface when 3^rd of 11 at Huntingdon last time. He’s got plenty of experience over fences and shouldn’t be far away in what doesn’t look the strongest of races.

Starevitch has shown bits of promise over hurdles and is interesting on handicap/chase debut. Takes a big step up in trip here but won a good ground point (3m) in Ireland. If he takes to fences, he could be on good mark, off 96, in a winnable race.

4:45 – Trainer Philip Hobbs had a welcome winner at Taunton yesterday and he could have another here with Energy One. The 5-year-old has shaped in novices hurdles like she could do well when going handicapping. Struggled in soft ground at Warwick when last seen in action 61-days ago but the return to better ground should show her in a better light.

Thursday selection:

Another poor pick yesterday with Expert Agent the one to be with rather than Beautiful Sunrise.  Today’s selection is from where else but Ludlow.

Ludlow

2:25 – Ucanaver – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

Cheers

John